Posts

Running Effective Structured Forecasting Sessions 2019-09-06T21:30:25.829Z · score: 21 (5 votes)
How to write good AI forecasting questions + Question Database (Forecasting infrastructure, part 3) 2019-09-03T14:50:59.288Z · score: 31 (12 votes)
AI Forecasting Resolution Council (Forecasting infrastructure, part 2) 2019-08-29T17:35:26.962Z · score: 29 (11 votes)
AI Forecasting Dictionary (Forecasting infrastructure, part 1) 2019-08-08T16:10:51.516Z · score: 40 (21 votes)
Do bond yield curve inversions really indicate there is likely to be a recession? 2019-07-10T01:23:36.250Z · score: 22 (8 votes)
What is the best online community for questions about AI capabilities? 2019-05-31T15:38:11.678Z · score: 4 (2 votes)
What's the best approach to curating a newsfeed to maximize useful contrasting POV? 2019-04-26T17:29:30.806Z · score: 28 (5 votes)
How do S-Risk scenarios impact the decision to get cryonics? 2019-04-21T15:59:50.342Z · score: 12 (5 votes)

Comments

Comment by bgold on Conversation on forecasting with Vaniver and Ozzie Gooen · 2019-08-11T16:52:29.913Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · LW · GW

From a 2 min brainstorm of "info products" I'd expect to be action guiding:

  • Metrics and dashboards reflecting the current state of the organization.
  • Vision statements ("what do we as an organization do and thus what things should we consider as part of our strategy")
  • Trusted advisors
  • Market forces (e.g. price's of goods)

One concrete example is from when I worked in a business intelligence role. What executives wanted was extremely trustworthy reliable data sources to track business performance over time. In a software environment (e.g. all the analytic companies constantly posting to Hacker News) that's trivial, but in a non-software environment that's very hard. It was very action-guiding to be able to see if your last initiative worked, because if it did you could put a lot more money into it and scale it up.

Comment by bgold on Conversation on forecasting with Vaniver and Ozzie Gooen · 2019-08-09T21:09:29.327Z · score: 12 (6 votes) · LW · GW

This seems true that there's a lot of way to utilize forecasts. In general forecasting tends to have an implicit and unstated connection to the decision making process - I think that has to do w/ the nature of operationalization ("a forecast needs to be on a very specific thing") and because much of the popular literature on forecasting has come from business literature (e.g. How to Measure Anything).

That being said I think action-guidingness is still the correct bar to meet for evaluating the effect it has on the EA community. I would bite the bullet and say blogs should also be held to this standard, as should research literature. An important question for an EA blog - say, LW :) - is what positive decisions it's creating (yes there are many other good things about having a central hub, but if the quality of intellectual content is part of it that should be trackable).

If in aggregate many forecasts can produce the same type of guidance or better as many good blog posts, that would be really positive.

Comment by bgold on Quotes from Moral Mazes · 2019-05-30T20:26:15.707Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

This is great, I also had struggled reading Moral Mazes and I appreciate the selected quotes.

For a more readable, modern treatment of the subject I strongly recommend Power: Why Some People Have It - And Others Don't. The author draws heavily from Moral Mazes as well as other case studies.

Comment by bgold on What is a reasonable outside view for the fate of social movements? · 2019-01-04T00:58:55.922Z · score: 12 (6 votes) · LW · GW

Off the cuff:

  • Temperance movement in the United States
  • Much of the radical left movement from the 60s to the 70s (ex. Students for a Democratic Society -> Weatherman)
  • Georgism
  • The Shakers

Another useful line of inquiry might be factoring out what success for a social movement looks like, find social movements that "succeeded", and see what happened to the social movements they were competing against.

Comment by bgold on Oops on Commodity Prices · 2018-06-12T21:27:04.172Z · score: 17 (3 votes) · LW · GW

+1 for noting mistake and for noting the importance of being bold, and asking questions and sharing models even when you're uncertain.

Your use of the Epistemic status tag - which I think /u/gwern pioneered? - seems good for balancing the value of sharing models while preventing polluting the "idea space" with potentially misleading/untrue things.