FUTARCHY NOW BABY

post by sapphire (deluks917) · 2024-02-17T00:03:18.962Z · LW · GW · 7 comments

There is insane shit going on and I dont have time for an explainer but https://themetadao.org is POPPING OFF. If you like FUTURACHY join the discord or get involved.

TLDR is someone implemented hansionian futarchy. There is a 'selfish propossal' being decided over the next thirty hours. If you love this shit  GET IN THERE BABY.

7 comments

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comment by Jonas V (Jonas Vollmer) · 2024-02-29T20:22:58.556Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Worth pointing out that this is up ~17x since it was posted. Sometimes, good ideas will be communicated poorly, and you'll pay a big price for not investigating yourself. (At least I did.)

Replies from: Jonas Vollmer
↑ comment by Jonas V (Jonas Vollmer) · 2024-02-29T20:51:02.093Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Doing a post-mortem on sapphire's other posts, their track record is pretty great:

  • BTC/crypto liftoff prediction: +22%
  • Meta DAO: +1600%
  • SAVE: -60%
  • BSC Launcher: -100%?
  • OLY2021: +32%
  • Perpetual futures: +20%
  • Perpetual futures, DeFi edition: +15%
  • Bet on Biden: +40%
  • AI portfolio: approx. -5% compared to index over same time period
  • AI portfolio, second post: approx. +30% compared to index over same time period
  • OpenAI/MSFT: ~0%
  • Buy SOL: +1000%
  • There are many more that I didn't look into.

All of these were over a couple weeks/months, so if you just blindly put 10% of your portfolio into each of the above, you get very impressive returns. (Overall, roughly ~5x relative to the broad market.)

Replies from: niplav, lc
↑ comment by niplav · 2024-03-19T19:33:27.000Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Maybe it's worth it hiring some people from Dickgirls research [LW · GW] (now renamed to clearmind?) to do investing, especially in risk-neutral contexts like philanthropic investing. @sapphire [LW · GW].

↑ comment by lc · 2024-03-23T14:27:25.371Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

This is a crazy hit rate. Someone should give sapphire 100MM$ to trade with.

comment by sapphire (deluks917) · 2024-02-18T07:41:52.795Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I will note this is both a cool as fuck project and the token is like 2x+ from when I posted. So idk why im getting downvoted. I guess lesswrong jsut isnt into finance for personal gain or to look at dope stuff.

Replies from: Jonas Vollmer
↑ comment by Jonas V (Jonas Vollmer) · 2024-02-18T19:16:26.234Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I think more like you don't argue why you believe what you believe and instead just assert it's cool, and the whole thing looks a bit sloppy (spelling mistakes, all-caps, etc.)

Replies from: deluks917
↑ comment by sapphire (deluks917) · 2024-02-18T23:02:11.825Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I didn't have time or energy! This shit was going parabolic! Whatever happened to Aumann's agreement theorem!