[SEQ RERUN] When (Not) To Use Probabilities

I've found that I have benefitted from "making up" probabilities in some circumstances. I have an unfortunate but probably normal tendency to think something along the lines of, "Just as I would have predicted," whenever something happens which confirms my general attitude about that thing. Of course, I don't notice when the converse happens, and it doesn't occur to me to be surprised, and thus I don't update. Standard Confirmations Bias really.

But if I explicitly think, "There's a 70% chance Bob will be late to our meeting," and then Bob is early, I've provided myself with the useful and inescapable information that I may be miscalibrated about Bob's punctuality and may be selectively remembering one time his lateness cost me something. If I never tried to make an internalized probability assessment, I would not have been surprised in the same way. This is probably because I would cover up my mistaken nonverbal expectation of Bob's lateness with some other fallacious thought like, "Well, nobody is late all the time."

It's interesting that Eliezer wrote this, because the Calibration Game, for instance, is based on exactly this premise: getting better at pulling numbers out of your butt.

I don't want to sound rude, but what is the point of this rerun? Looking at the reposted articles from the last month, most have fewer than 10 comments each.