Jan_Kulveit's Shortform

I already think that "the entire shape of the zeitgeist in America" is downstream of non-trivial efforts by more than one state actor. Those links explain documented cases of China and Russia both trying to foment race war in the US, but I could pull links for other subdimensions of culture (in science, around the second amendment, and in other areas) where this has been happening since roughly 2014.

This theory likely assigns too much intention to too large of a structure. The cleavage lines are so obvious in the U.S. that it wouldn’t take much more than a random PSYOP middle manager every week having a lark on a slow Friday afternoon, who decides to just deploy some of their resources to mess around.

Although it’s possible policy makers know this too and intentionally make it very low hanging fruit for bored personnel to mess around and get away with only a slap on the wrist.

The core issue, in any society, is that it’s thousands of times easier to destroy trust than to rebuild it.

It is difficult to prove things, but I strongly suspect that in Slovakia, Ján Čarnogurský is a Russian asset.

In my opinion, the only remaining question is when exactly was he recruited, how long game was played on us. I have suspected him for a long time, but most people probably would have called me crazy for that, however recently he became openly pro-Russian, to a great surprise for many of his former supporters. So the question is whether I was right and this was a long con, or whether he had a change of mind recently and my previous suspicions were merely a coincidence (homogeneity of the outgroup, etc.).

If this indeed was a long con (maybe, maybe not), then he had a perfect cover story. During communism, he was a lawyer and provided legal support for the anti-Communist opposition. Two years before the fall of communism, he was fired and unemployed. Three months before the fall of communism, he was put in prison. Also, he was strongly religious (perceived as a religious fanatic by some). Remember that Slovakia is a predominantly Catholic country.

After the fall of communism he quickly rose to power. He basically represented the opposition to communism, and the comeback of religious freedom. In 1990s the political scene of Slovakia was basically two camps: those nostalgic for communism, led by Vladimír Mečiar, and those who opposed communism and wanted to join the West, led by Ján Čarnogurský. So we are talking here about the strongest, or the second strongest politician.

I remember some weird opinions of his from that era. For example, he talked a lot about how Slovakia should be "a bridge between Russia and the West", and that we should build a broad-gauge railway across Slovakia (i.e. from the Ukrainian border, to the capital city which is on the western end). If anyone else would have said that, people would probably suspect them of something, but Čarnogurský's anti-communist credentials were just too perfect, so he stayed above suspicion. (From my perspective, perhaps a little paranoid, that sounded a bit like preparing the ground for easy invasion. I mean, one day, a huge train could arrive from Russia right to our capital city, and if it turns out that the train is full of well-armed soldiers, the invasion could be over before most people would even notice that it began. Note: I have no military expertise, so maybe what I am saying here doesn't make sense.)

Then in 1998 he was unexpectedly replaced as a leader by Mikuláš Dzurinda, in a weird turn of events, that was basically a non-violent coup based on technicality. (The opposition to Mečiar was always fragmented to multiple political parties, so they always ran as a coalition. Mečiar changed the constitution to make elections much more difficult for coalitions than for individual parties. The opposition parties were like "no problem, we will make a faux political party as a temporary facade for our coalition, win the election, revert the law, disband the temporary party, and return to life as usual", and they put Dzurinda, a relatively unknown young guy, as a leader of the new party. However, after election when they asked him to disband the new party, he was like "LOL, I am the leader of the party that won the election, you guys better shut up", and governed the country.) Those were the best years for Slovakia, politically; we quickly joined EU and NATO. (Afterwards, Mečiar was replaced in the role of nostalgic post-communist alpha male leader by Robert Fico who won almost every election since then, and the opposition remains fragmented.)

Thus Ján Čarnogurský lost most of his political power. No longer the natural (Schelling-point) leader of the opposition; too much perceived as a religious fanatic to lead anyone other than those. So he quit politics, founded a private Paneuropean University (together with two Russian entrepreneurs), and later became openly pro-Russian. Among other things, he supports the Russian invasion of Ukraine, organizes protests for "peace" (read: capitulation of Ukraine), opposes the EU sanctions against Russia. He is a chairman of Slovak-Russian Society. Recently he received an Order of Honour in Russia.