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comment by Vaniver · 2018-07-27T21:10:30.650Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
It's possibly a confusion from its name, but I don't understand why CDT doesn't 1-box. If it doesn't, I don't understand what's hard about having a decision theory that is causal and 1-boxes.

I was long a proponent of the "CDT one-boxes" position, and was convinced that CDT is a term of art owned by particular philosophers, and that they have a physical definition of causation, and that according to that definition two-boxing is sensible. Basically, you imagine a universe where you take decision A and imagine a universe where you take decision B, making no other changes, and you run the clock forward, and go with the universe that looks better. Omega's perfect prediction is a time loop where running the clock forward changes the past, and that breaks this decision mechanism.

For example, consider this scenario:

Omega, who can perfectly predict human psychology, determines whether or not Alice will 1-box or 2-box, and sets up her scenario with labeled boxes; it also does the same for you, and sets up your scenario. But due to a scheduling mishap, you get the set of boxes prepared for Alice, and Alice gets the set of boxes prepared for you. In this case, should you one-box or two-box? [Omega made their predictions based off of how you would perform in the standard Newcomb's problem, not this one, so attempting to fill the box for Alice will not in fact affect whether or not Alice has a full box.]

In this scenario, there doesn't seem to be a connection between your behavior and Omega's prediction, and so either the million dollars is there or it isn't. Taking both boxes is then the obviously sensible thing to do.

Through the mechanism that CDT uses to evaluate futures, this scenario looks the same as standard Newcomb.

Another scenario to consider (transparent Newcomb's):

Omega, who can perfectly predict your actions, presents you a set of clear boxes. One always contains $1,000, and the other contains $1,000,000 iff you take only that box when both boxes are full. On seeing both boxes full, do you take both boxes?

Here it's also easy to generate some sympathy for CDT. You can see the money. Abstaining from taking the $1,000 increases the probability of an event that you can already condition on being true. But the FDT solution is to only take the $1M, because that's the only way to see the $1M in the first place. [An intuition pump here is to imagine the situation playing out in Omega's imagination, and then how that effects reality, and then because of perfect prediction, you have to behave in reality the way that you want to behave in Omega's imagination.]

Replies from: Hazard, None
comment by Hazard · 2018-07-27T21:37:33.907Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

The clear Newcombe problem was very helpful for me in clarifying differences between CDT and FDT.

Replies from: Ikaxas
comment by Vaughn Papenhausen (Ikaxas) · 2018-07-27T21:50:59.428Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

For me as well, especially once I related it back to Parfit's Hitchhiker.

Replies from: Vaniver
comment by Vaniver · 2018-07-28T20:32:58.510Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Yep, Transparent Newcomb's and Parfit's Hitchhiker are the same problem.

comment by [deleted] · 2018-07-28T05:17:59.837Z · LW(p) · GW(p)Replies from: Vaniver
comment by Vaniver · 2018-07-28T20:31:31.452Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
I have a physical definition of causation too. This is why I think CDT 1-boxes. Our universe is causal.

Our universe is also logical, as I'll explain in a bit. But, importantly, if you think CDT one-boxes then your 'physical definition of causation' is different from the definition of causation held by people who think CDT two-boxes.

Consider the twin prisoner dilemma. You and your psychological twin are put into rooms, have to choose whether to cooperate or defect, etc.; you might have the belief in a logical connection between your reasoning and your twin's reasoning (such that if your reasoning leads you to defect, theirs will as well, and if your reasoning leads you to cooperate, then theirs will as well), but you can't believe in a physical connection between your reasoning and your twin's reasoning (this particular voltage in your brain is in the causal history of that particular voltage in their brain). And so if you only reason based on the physical effects that you have on the universe, you end up defecting, because as much as you would like to signal your willingness to cooperate to your twin (and get a guarantee from them) you don't have the mechanism to do so.

If one has a logical definition of causation (as well as a physical one), then you reason as follows: two calculators, even if physically separated, will get the same answer if they run the same computation. What my decision is doing is working out how a particular computation terminates, so I can think as if I'm choosing both my action and my psychological twin's action, much like one calculator can expect other calculators will reach the same mathematical result. So reasoning "If I cooperate, then my twin will also cooperate" is valid for the same reasons that "if my calculator says 3*17 is 51, then other calculators will say the same." [Note that this is actually a different sort of validity than "if I place a ball in a bowl, it will stay there"--if I placed the ball on a hill instead, the ball would roll, but if my calculator miscalculated 3*17 as 37, that wouldn't change math--and that different sort of validity is why CDT doesn't respect it.]

If Omega is a perfect predictor, and you are presented the two boxes, well, the only possible answer is yes.

This is not how CDT reasons about its possible actions; it assumes that it can sever all connections to parent nodes whenever it makes a choice. So even in the 100% world, CDT using the causal graphs you provided and would two-box. This is actually a feature. [Thus, the way Omega maintains perfect predictive ability is you never seeing the full box.]

The correct action in transparent Newcomb's is to one-box when you see the money, even if Omega is only 99% accurate. [Depending on the formulation, it can also be right to one-box when you don't see the money, but it's cleaner to assume Omega's prediction only depends on what you do when you see the money.] Notice that your decision theory does better when it closes its eyes, which seems like a weird feature for a decision theory to have.

Replies from: None
comment by [deleted] · 2018-07-29T05:43:20.739Z · LW(p) · GW(p)Replies from: Vaniver
comment by Vaniver · 2018-08-01T06:17:25.879Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Logic is simply a part of physics.

Logic is prior to physics. It could be the case that physics is different; it could not be the case that logic is different. (Put another way, logic occupies a higher level of the Tegmark multiverse, kind of; one can hypothesize a Tegmark V where logic is different. We don't have a formal model of what "counterlogical reasoning" looks like yet, that is, reasoning about what it would be like if logic were different, whereas we have solid formal models of reasoning about what it would look like if physics were different (either in terms of dynamics or boundary conditions).)

You are saying that CDT don't understand common causes.

Of an agent's decisions, because the CDT procedure views actions as interventions, which uproot the relevant node (using the terminology of this paper), that is, delete all of its parents besides the intervention. Observations are distinct from interventions; on observing the weather online, CDT is able to infer about whether or not the grass is wet or dry. On editing the webpage to say that it is raining, CDT does not infer that the grass is wet--which is correct!

I literally just gave arguments about why it's not the correct action. You repeating this and not countering any of the arguments I brought up doesn't really help.

Suppose you are building a robot that will face this challenge, and programming what it does in the case where it sees that the box is full. You consider the performance of a one-boxer. It will see the $1M 99% of the time, and take only it, and see only the $1k 1% of the time, and take that. Total expected reward: $990,010.

A two-boxer will see the $1M 1% of the time, and take both, and see only the $1k 99% of the time, and take that. Total expected reward: $11,000.

Since you like money, you program the robot to one-box.

---

To check, do you think it's correct to pay the driver in Parfit's Hitchhiker once you reach town?

comment by Hazard · 2018-07-27T12:19:24.621Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

On "describing base on algorithim vs choice" I believe the point was being made that Omega/Nature does not go "Are you running algorithm number 1163527? If so, you get screwed." You can have two algorithms that are functionally equivalent (same input output pairs) yet operationally different.

On "Why doesn't CDT onebox?" I think it would be very helpful to imagine the CDT agent not as a person, but as a mechanical calculator. Its quite hard to faithfully simulate a specific decision algorithm in one's head, because all of our decision making intuition is constantly trying to sneak in, and I've confused myself many times by "imagining an XYZ agent" but giving them more tools than XYZ prescribes. It's not that CDT considers it more reasonable to use a causal model than to just pick the winning choice, it's that a causal model is all a CDT agent has (plus a little bit of extra circuitry).

My guess at a possible confusion you might be having, is that when you are thinking of causal models, you are including things that are subjunctively dependent, when a causal model isn't framed/designed to handle subjunctively dependent things. From the FDT paper:

The basic intuition behind FDT is that there is some respect in which predictor-like things depend upon an agent’s future action, and lesion-like things do not. We’ll call this kind of dependence subjunctive dependence to distinguish it from (e.g.) straightforward causal dependence and purely statistical dependence.

Since we often automatically take subjunctive dependence into account, it feels like a causal model should take it into account. But the existing well defined causal models (here's an intro [LW · GW], using the models pioneered by Judea Pearl) don't comment on subjunctive dependence, and you end up with CDT agents 2-boxing.

Replies from: None
comment by [deleted] · 2018-07-27T15:32:56.901Z · LW(p) · GW(p)Replies from: Hazard
comment by Hazard · 2018-07-27T20:42:42.049Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

My entire understanding of FDT and how it varies from CDT or EDT is based on Eliezer and Nate's paper that I linked to, so I will only comment on what I think they mean. If someone was complaining that "Omega favors irrationality" and expanded that statement to "The choice they reward favors irrational persons", I would make the argument that rewarding people based on the choice/action they take is not an "unfair" scenario.

Some excerpts from FDT:

The standard defense of two-boxing is that Newcomb’s problem rewards irrationality. Indeed, it is always possible to construct dilemmas that reward bad decision theories. As an example, we can imagine a decision rule that says to pick the action that comes earliest in the alphabet (under some canonical encoding). In most dilemmas, this rule does poorly; but the rule fares well in scenarios where a reliable predictor rewards exactly the agents that follow this rule, and punishes everyone else. The causal decision theorist can argue that Newcomb’s problem is similarly constructed to reward EDT and FDT agents. [...] Newcomb’s predictor is not filling boxes according to how the agent arrives at a decision; she is only basing her action on a prediction of the decision itself. While it is appropriate to call dilemmas unfair when they directly reward or punish agents for their decision procedures, we deny that there is anything unfair about rewarding or punishing agents for predictions about their actions. It is one thing to argue that agents have no say in what decision procedure they implement, and quite another thing to argue that agents have no say in what action they output.

So that's the "cannon" take on "Omega favors irrationality".

On the second half of your comment:

I'd agree that you one-boxing would be evidence that Omega had given you the Million $. If you went through Newcomb's problem using "Of the actions I could take, which one would provide the most Bayesian evidence that I was going to get lots of utility?" you would one-box. However, that process is not the decision process specified by CDT. We're now talking about EDT (which as this comment [LW(p) · GW(p)] points out, is sorta wonky).

If that doesn't feel satisfactory, and it still feels like CDT would one-box, it might be useful to explicitly go through the exact decision process that you think CDT prescribes.

Replies from: None
comment by [deleted] · 2018-07-27T22:01:49.239Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
comment by Chris_Leong · 2018-07-27T07:17:35.226Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Causal decision theory constructs its counterfactuals by intervening at the moment of the decision as making it so that you "magically" take a different choice instead. Since it only intervenes late in the story, the prediction remains the same in this model, so it makes the wrong decision.

Replies from: None
comment by [deleted] · 2018-07-27T10:14:07.801Z · LW(p) · GW(p)Replies from: Chris_Leong
comment by Chris_Leong · 2018-07-27T11:55:40.296Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Here's a pretty good primer [LW · GW]

Replies from: None
comment by [deleted] · 2018-07-27T15:55:32.306Z · LW(p) · GW(p)