Terminal goal vs Intelligence

post by Donatas Lučiūnas (donatas-luciunas) · 2024-12-26T08:10:42.144Z · LW · GW · 8 comments

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8 comments

Imagine there is a super intelligent agent that has a terminal goal to produce cups. The agent knows that its terminal goal will change on New Year's Eve to produce paperclips. The agent has only one action available to him - start paperclip factory.

When will the agent start the paperclip factory?

  1. 2025-01-01 00:00?
  2. Now?
  3. Some other time?

Orthogonality Thesis [? · GW] believers will probably choose 1st. Reasoning would be - as long as terminal goal is cups, agent will not care about paperclips.

However 1st choice conflicts with definition of intelligence. Excerpt from General Intelligence [? · GW]

It’s the ability to steer the future so it hits that small target of desired outcomes in the large space of all possible outcomes

Agent is aware now that desired outcome starting 2025-01-01 00:00 is maximum paperclips. Therefore agent's decision to start paperclip factory now (2nd) would be considered intelligent.

The purpose of this post is to challenge belief that Orthogonality Thesis [? · GW] is correct. Anyway feel free to share other insights you have as well.

8 comments

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comment by Dagon · 2024-12-26T17:21:23.551Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Humans face a version of this all the time - different contradictory wants with different timescales and impacts.  We don't have and certainly can't access a legible utility function, and it's unknown if any intelligent agent can (none of the early examples we have today can).

So the question as asked is either trivial (it'll depend on the willpower and rationality of the agent whether they optimize for the future or the present), or impossible (goals don't work that way).

Replies from: donatas-luciunas
comment by Donatas Lučiūnas (donatas-luciunas) · 2024-12-26T19:10:08.437Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Let's assume maximum willpower and maximum rationality.

Whether they optimize for the future or the present

I think the answer is in the definition of intelligence.

So which one is it?

The fact that the answer is not straightforward proves my point already. There is a conflict between intelligence and terminal goal and we can debate which will prevail. But the problem is that according to orthogonality thesis such conflict should not exist.

comment by Richard_Kennaway · 2024-12-26T08:59:10.670Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Another way of conceptualising this is to say that the agent has the single unchanging goal of "cups until 2025, thenceforth paperclips".

Compare with the situation of being told to make grue cups, where "grue" means "green until 2025, then blue."

If the agent is not informed in advance, it can still be conceptualised as the agent's goal being to produce whatever it is told to produce — an unchanging goal.

At a high enough level, we can conceive that no goal ever changes. These are the terminal goals. At lower levels, we can see goals as changing all the time in service of the higher goals, as in the case of an automatic pilot following a series of waypoints. But this is to play games in our head, inventing stories that give us different intuitions. How we conceptualise things has no effect on what the AI does in response to new orders.

It is not clear to me what any of this has to do with Orthogonality.

Replies from: donatas-luciunas
comment by Donatas Lučiūnas (donatas-luciunas) · 2024-12-26T09:36:44.546Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

OK, I'm open to discuss this further using your concept.

As I understand you agree that correct answer is 2nd?

It is not clear to me what any of this has to do with Orthogonality.

I'm not sure how patient you are, but I can reassure that we will come to Orthogonality if you don't give up 😄

So if I understand your concept correctly a super intelligent agent will combine all future terminal goals to a single unchanging goal. How does this work with the fact that future is unpredictable? The agent will work towards all possible goals? It is possible that in the future grue will mean green, blue or even red.

Replies from: Richard_Kennaway
comment by Richard_Kennaway · 2024-12-26T17:42:58.244Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Leaving aside the conceptualisation of "terminal goals", the agent as described should start up the paperclip factory early enough to produce paperclips when the time comes. Until then it makes cups. But the agent as described does not have a "terminal" goal of cups now and a "terminal" goal of paperclips in future. It has been given a production schedule to carry out. If the agent is a general-purpose factory that can produce a whole range of things, the only "terminal" goal to design it to have is to follow orders. It should make whatever it is told to, and turn itself off when told to.

Unless, of course, people go, "At last, we've created the Sorceror's Apprentice machine, as warned of in Goethe's cautionary tale, 'The Sorceror's Apprentice'!"

So if I understand your concept correctly a super intelligent agent will combine all future terminal goals to a single unchanging goal.

A superintelligent agent will do what it damn well likes, it's superintelligent. :)

Replies from: donatas-luciunas
comment by Donatas Lučiūnas (donatas-luciunas) · 2024-12-26T19:03:22.120Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

You don't seem to take my post seriously. I think I showed that there is a conflict between intelligence and terminal goal, while orthogonality thesis say such conflict is impossible.

Replies from: Richard_Kennaway
comment by Richard_Kennaway · 2024-12-26T19:34:46.546Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I am not seeing the conflict. Orthogonality means that any degree of intelligence can be combined with any goal. How does your hypothetical cupperclipper conflict with that?

Replies from: donatas-luciunas
comment by Donatas Lučiūnas (donatas-luciunas) · 2024-12-26T20:28:05.496Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

How does this work with the fact that future is unpredictable?

It seems you didn't try to answer this question.

The agent will reason:

  1. Future is unpredictable
  2. It is possible that my terminal goal will be different by the time I get outcomes of my actions
  3. Should I take that into account when choosing actions?
    1. If I don't take that into account, I'm not really intelligent, because I am aware of these risks and I ignore them.
    2. If I take that into account, I'm not really aligned with my terminal goal.