Modeling AI milestones to adjust AGI arrival estimates?

post by Ozyrus · 2019-07-11T08:17:55.914Z · score: 11 (5 votes) · LW · GW · No comments

This is a question post.


    4 Michaël Trazzi
    2 Pablo_Stafforini
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Is there a roadmap of major milestones AI researchers have to achieve through before AGI is here? I feel like this would be beneficial to update on AGI arrival timelines and adjust actions accordingly. Lately, a lot of things that can be classified as a milestone have been achieved -- GLUE benchmark, StarCraft II, DOTA 2 etc. Should we adjust our estimates on AGI arrival based on those or are they moving according to plan? It would be cool to have a place with all forecasts on AGI in one place.


answer by Michaël Trazzi · 2019-07-11T11:53:55.952Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · LW · GW

You can find AGI predictions, including Starcraft forecasts, in "When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts". Projects for having "all forecasts on AGI in one place" include &

comment by moridinamael · 2019-07-12T04:43:26.973Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Looks like all of the "games"-oriented predictions that were supposed to happen in the first 25 years have already happened within 3.

edit: Misread the charts. It's more like the predictions within the first ~10 years have already been accomplished, plus or minus a few.

answer by Pablo_Stafforini · 2019-07-31T08:00:18.401Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

You may want to check out the Metaculus AI milestones timeline.

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