... And Everyone Loses Their Minds

During the initial coverage of the ebola outbreak, there were several comparisons to the malaria death toll, with the conclusion that paying so much attention to the (much, much smaller) death toll from ebola was irrational. This was wrong, because the ebola outbreak was undergoing exponential growth, and so the early death toll had huge importance as evidence about the long-term growth rate, and because arresting the exponential process in the early stages might be very cost effective. At the time, there were credible predictions that we might see 1.5 million cases in a relatively small region (with perhaps .75 million deaths), compared to a rate of 0.5 million global deaths from malaria. Thankfully, these predictions now look unlikely, but it is very much rational to care about possible early evidence for something that might be on track for substantial growth.

which is that the number of people killed by terrorists is much more variable than the number of people killed by lightning.

High or low variation does not mean easy or hard to control. Estimates of the cost of the War on Terror since 9/11 are going to be upwards of $6 trillion at this point. That's a lot of money.

How much would it cost to install a few million more lightning rods? Install giant wires to draw lightning strikes? Develop a mandatory early warning system tied into all smartphones' GPSes to warn people? Researching better medical treatments to deal with the long-term cognitive & psychological damage? Banning kites and taxing umbrellas? Subsidizing cardiac arrest kits? Relocating millions of people to less lightning-strike-prone regions?

(None of this sounds more costly or intrusive than spending $6t+, requiring millions of travelers to shed shoes annually for decades, invading multiple countries and creating millions of refugees, maintaining continuous drone strikes on multiple continents, running a global network of torture sites, etc etc etc.)

Since lightning strikes are almost completely uncorrelated random events, the distribution of deaths by lightning is governed by the Central Limit Theorem and so is nearly Gaussian.

True (perhaps), yet almost completely irrelevant to the question of how to allocate resources.

Further, of course, we know that lightning strikes are not controlled by intelligent beings, while terrorist strikes are.

If there's a major multi-fatality lightning strike, it's unlikely to encourage weather phenomena to engage in copycat attacks. Nor will all sorts of counter-lightning measures dissuade clouds from generating static electricity and instead dumping more rain or something.

If X people died from lightning in 2014, then it is very unlikely that 2X people will die from lightning in 2015,

This doesn't actually follow from (annual?) lightning strikes being nearly Gaussian. A Gaussian distribution can have a standard deviation not much smaller than its mean, in which case a fall of 50% or a rise of 100% from one year to the next wouldn't be so unlikely. Indeed the last 8 counts of annual US lightning fatalities vary over a range of a factor of 2.

Is there also a bias toward the illusion of choice? Some people think driving is safer than flying because they are "in control" when driving, but not when flying. Similarly, I could stay inside a well-grounded building my whole life and avoid ever being struck by lightning, but I can't make a similar choice to avoid all possible threats of terrorism.

The primary two biases in question are that humans take threats from intent or agencies much more seriously than threats from random chance.

Could you refer me to the relevant bibliography?

Trivial Pursuit question (literally): if you're struck by lightning, which of your five senses are you most likely to lose? Being struck by thunder, indeed.

I think most LWers can be expected to know about those. I'm just curious as to which biases are involved specifically.

Indeed, I have very little to contribute on my own. I'm mostly here to learn.

I'm not generalizing from the Joker's reflection. Rather, I'm using it as a springboard to talk about an issue that concerns me; namely, what triggers fear and warth and outrage in people and what doesn't. I think this is a different kind of bias from just scope insensitivity or fundamental attribution error or overconfidence bias or anything like that. Those can be overcome by just explaining the facts. This one, however, can't; explaining stuff and putting numbers forth will only get you accused of sophistry. I find that very frustrating.

This seems a bit harsh. I expect it to result in OP taking the actions you outline in fewer universes compared to a positive framing of the same info.

If every single discussion post is highly useful it means we are erring on the side of posting too few things.

It is time for man to fix his goal. It is time for man to plant the seed of his highest hope.

His soil is still rich enough for it. But that soil will one day be poor and exhausted, and no lofty tree will any longer be able to grow there.

Alas! there comes the time when man will no longer launch the arrow of his longing beyond man -- and the string of his bow will have unlearned to whiz!

I tell you: one must still have chaos in oneself, to give birth to a dancing star. I tell you: you have still chaos in yourselves.

Alas! There comes the time when man will no longer give birth to any star. Alas! There comes the time of the most despicable man, who can no longer despise himself.

Lo! I show you the Last Man.

"What is love? What is creation? What is longing? What is a star?" -- so asks the Last Man, and blinks.

The earth has become small, and on it hops the Last Man, who makes everything small. His species is ineradicable as the flea; the Last Man lives longest.

"We have discovered happiness" -- say the Last Men, and they blink.

They have left the regions where it is hard to live; for they need warmth. One still loves one's neighbor and rubs against him; for one needs warmth.

Turning ill and being distrustful, they consider sinful: they walk warily. He is a fool who still stumbles over stones or men!

A little poison now and then: that makes for pleasant dreams. And much poison at the end for a pleasant death.

One still works, for work is a pastime. But one is careful lest the pastime should hurt one.

One no longer becomes poor or rich; both are too burdensome. Who still wants to rule? Who still wants to obey? Both are too burdensome.

No shepherd, and one herd! Everyone wants the same; everyone is the same: he who feels differently goes voluntarily into the madhouse.

"Formerly all the world was insane," -- say the subtlest of them, and they blink.

They are clever and know all that has happened: so there is no end to their derision. People still quarrel, but are soon reconciled -- otherwise it upsets their stomachs.

They have their little pleasures for the day, and their little pleasures for the night, but they have a regard for health.

"We have discovered happiness," -- say the Last Men, and they blink.

Friedrich Nietzsche Thus Spoke Zarathustra,

I read this from the comfort of my couch, and I blink. Isn't that the right way to live, the model of polite society? Is it wrong to want to live that way?

EDIT: I have no idea how this weird formatting thing happened or how to undo it.

This is at best deeply confused. There are a lot of things that we consider unethical or just stupid that we still think people have a right to do and their basic right to do so should be protected. Focusing on "is this speech ethical" misses almost the entire issue at hand.