Could Anthropic face an OpenAI drama 2.0?

I forecast that Anthropic would likely face a similar backlash from its employees than OpenAI in case Anthropic’s executives were to knowingly decrease the value of Anthropic shares significantly. E.g. if they were to switch from “scaling as fast as possible” to “safety-constrained scaling”. In that case, I would not find it surprising that a significant fraction of Anthropic’s staff threatened to leave or leave the company.

The reasoning is simple, given that we don’t observe significant differences in the wages of OpenAI and Anthropic employees and assuming that they are overall of the same distribution of skill and skill level. Then it seems that Anthropic is not able to use the argument of its AI safety focus as a bargaining argument to reduce the wages significantly. If true this would mean that safety is of relatively little importance to most of Anthropic’s employees.

Counter argument: Anthropic is hiring from a much more restricted pool of candidates. From only the safety-concerned candidates. In that case, Anthropic would have to pay a premium to hire these people. And it happens that this premium is roughly equivalent to the discount that these employees are willing to give to Anthropic because of its safety focus.

Rambling about Forecasting the order in which functions are learned by NN

Idea: 
Using function complexity and their "compoundness", we may be able to forecast the order in which algorithms in NN are learned. And we may be able to forecast the temporal ordering of when some functions or behaviours will start generalising strongly.

Rambling:
What happens when training neural networks is similar to the selection of genes in genomes or any reinforcement optimization processes. Compound functions are much harder to learn. You need each part to be independently useful initially to provide enough signal for the compound system to be reinforced. 

That means that learning any non-hardcoded algorithms with many variables and multiplicative steps is very difficult. 
An important factor in this is the frequency at which an algorithm is useful and to which extent.  An algorithm that can be very used in most situations will get much more training signals. The relative strength of the reward signal you get is important because of the noise in the training and because of catastrophic forgetting. 

LLMs are not learning complex algorithms yet. They are learning something like a world model because this is used for most tasks and it can be built by first building each part separately and then assembling them. 

Regarding building algorithms to exploit this world model, it can be learned later if the algorithm is composed first of very simple algorithms that can be later assembled. An extra difficulty for LLMs to learn algorithms is in situations where heuristics already work very well. In that case, you need to add significant regularisation pushing for simpler circuits. Then you may observe grokking and a transition from heuristics to algorithms.

An issue with this reasoning is that heuristics are 1-step algorithms (0 compoundness).

Effects:

- Frequency of reward

- Strength of the additional reward (above the "heuristic baseline")

- Compoundness

Forecasting game:
(WIP, mostly a failure at that point)

Early to generalize well:
World models can be built from simple parts, and are most of the time valuable. 
Generalizable algorithm for simple and frequent tasks on which heuristics fail dramatically: ??? (maybe) generating random numbers, ??

Medium to generalize well:
Generalizable deceptive alignment algorithms: They require several components to work. But they are useful for many tasks. The strength of the additional reward is not especially high or low.
Generalizable instrumental convergence algorithms: Same as deceptive alignment.
Generalizable short horizon algorithms: They, by definition, require fewer sequential steps, as such they should be less "compounded" functions and appear sooner.

Late:
Generalizable long horizon algorithms: They, by definition, require more sequential steps, as such they should be more "compounded" functions and appear later.

The latest:
Generalizable long horizon narrow capabilities: They are not frequently reinforced. 

(Time spent on this: 45min)

July 6th update: 
Here is a quick experiment trying to observe the effect of increasing "compoundness" on the ordering of grokking different functions: https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1B85mfCkqyQZSl1JGbLr0r5BrAS8LYUr5?usp=sharing

Quick results:
The task is predicting the sign of the product of 1 (function 1) to 8 (function 8) standard normal random variables. 
Increasing the compoundness by 2 seems to delay the grokking by something like 1 OOM.

Will we get to GPT-5 and GPT-6 soon?

This is a straightforward "follow the trend" model which tries to forecast when GPT-N-equivalent models will be first trained and deployed up to 2030.
 

Baseline forecast: 

Bullish forecast:

FWIW,  it predicts roughly similar growth in model size, energy cost and GPU count than described in https://situational-awareness.ai/ while being created the week before this was released.

I spent like 10 hours on this, so I expect to find lingering mistakes in the model.

What is the difference between Evaluation, Characterization, Experiments, and Observations?

The words evaluations, experiments, characterizations, and observations are somewhat confused or confusingly used in discussions about model evaluations (e.g., ref [AF · GW], ref [LW(p) · GW(p)]). 

Let’s define them more clearly: 

• Observations provide information about an object (including systems).
  • This information can be informative (allowing the observer to update its beliefs significantly), or not.
• Characterizations describe distinctive features of an object (including properties).
  • Characterizations are observations that are actively designed and controlled to study an object.
• Evaluations evaluate the quality of distinctive features based on normative criteria.
  • Evaluations are composed of both characterizations and normative criteria.
  • Evaluations are normative, they inform about what is good or bad, desirable or undesirable.
  • Normative criteria (or “evaluation criterion”) are the element bringing the normativity. They are most of the time directional or simple thresholds.
  • Evaluations include both characterizations of the object studied and characterization of the characterization technique used (e.g., accuracy of measurement).
• Scientific experiments test hypotheses through controlled manipulation of variables.
  • Scientific experiments are composed of: characterizations, and hypothesis

In summary:

• Observations 
• Characterizations = Designed and controlled Observations
• Evaluations = Characterization of object + Characterization of the characterization method + Normative criteria
• Scientific experiments = Characterizations + Hypothesis

Examples:

• An observation is an event in which the observer receives information about the AI system.
  • E.g., you read a completion returned by a model.
• A characterization is a tool or process used to describe an AI system.
  • E.g., you can characterize the latency of an AI system by measuring it. You can characterize how often a model is correct (without specifying that correctness is the goal). 
• An AI system evaluation will associate characterizations and normative criteria to conclude about the quality of the AI system on the dimensions evaluated.
  • E.g., alignment evaluations use characterizations of models and the normative criteria of the alignment with X (e.g., humanity) to conclude on how well the model is aligned with X.
• An experiment will associate hypotheses, interventions, and finally characterizations to conclude on the veracity of the hypotheses about the AI system.
  • E.g., you can change the training algorithm and measure the impact using characterization techniques.

Clash of usage and definition:

These definitions slightly clash with the usage of the term evals or evaluations in the AI community. Regularly the normative criteria associated with an evaluation are not explicitly defined, and the focus is solely put on the characterizations included in the evaluation.

(Produced as part of the AI Safety Camp, within the project: Evaluating alignment evaluations)