Hi Matt Goldenberg,
I’m truly happy. In a world with so much information available, catching someone’s interest made me yell like a rooster.

I see that having more tested evidence would be ideal. Since 2013, I’ve been looking for ways to battle-test ESTIMAT. That year, I had to leave the military firefighting corps in Brazil because I disagreed with their "ethics," so to speak.

I decided to start a business, and at first, ESTIMAT was a way to distribute profits by merit in a company I started with a friend. We used an experience points (XP) system for this. Although I don’t have baseline metrics or a control group, I noticed that with this system, our dedication to the business increased. Later, we lost our supplier in China and couldn’t find competitive replacements.

That’s when I thought: Why not use a similar model to evaluate myself and improve my own experience (XP)?

To measure human skills, XP, and so on, I first pursued a postgraduate degree in neuroscience to explore how pleasure might form synapses in the brain. However, I lacked the mathematical background to make solid estimations.

I tried enrolling in a master’s program in biological mathematics but couldn’t find interested peers in my city. The groups I encountered were either focused on external mathematical problems or philosophy, but I couldn’t find one that connected both fields with human behavior.

I moved to Argentina and started studying math thinking to improve my mathematical skills. Since 2015, I’ve tested various versions of ESTIMAT. At one point, I evaluated myself every 25 minutes using the method. While this isn’t what I propose now, it helped me structure my values, identities, and virtues in a more sophisticated way. According to my personal improvement graphs, the results were incredible.

I have gigabytes of spreadsheets with data testing different ESTIMAT alternatives. Even my partner joined the process at one point. However, communicating these ideas was always challenging for me because I’m dyslexic. Now, with the help of AI and visual communication tools, I’ve been able to structure a text that seems more understandable to others.

I know these proofs are far from a randomized controlled study or a large-scale simulation, but they’re the best I could manage over these years.

Additionally, my main purpose in sharing ESTIMAT here is to understand what the rationalist community thinks about the theory. I want to identify potential major flaws before investing in a more expensive experiment or simulation.