What features would you like a prediction platform to have?

post by Mati_Roy (MathieuRoy) · 2020-10-13T00:48:03.024Z · score: 7 (2 votes) · LW · GW · No comments

This is a question post.


    6 Daniel Kokotajlo
    5 ChristianKl
    5 Mati_Roy
    2 Mati_Roy
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answer by Daniel Kokotajlo · 2020-10-13T09:22:43.531Z · score: 6 (3 votes) · LW(p) · GW(p)

--Ability to draw probability distributions with a mouse or pen rather than having to input numbers --Ability to (optionally) auto-update predictions over time, e.g. "I predict 30% chance of this happening by end of year 2021, if it hasn't happened yet, consider my prediction to be proportionally lower." A version of this for distributions would work as well. --Ability to compare a set of users by collecting the set of questions they all predicted and seeing who did best on that set --Massive scale: Thousands of questions on hundreds of topics, with some sort of recommendation algorithm to help match me to questions I'm interested in. Lots of users too, to make for lively discussions.

comment by Mati_Roy (MathieuRoy) · 2020-10-13T23:12:55.195Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW(p) · GW(p)

if you predict updating your temporal distribution after 2021 conditional on it not having happened before, then you already have: the shape of the curve after 2021 shouldn't change just based on learning that it hasn't happened before 2021

answer by ChristianKl · 2020-10-13T11:42:29.291Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · LW(p) · GW(p)

There are four kinds of predictions:

  1. Public predictions
  2. Predictions under friends 
  3. Predictions within institutions
  4. Personal predictions

When creating a platform it's worth thinking about which use-case you want to focus on. Metaculus seems to me like it does a good job at public predictions. 

When it comes to prediction under friends I would both want the ability to share a prediction with specific people and in the past we found software that calculates the fair payoffs when either side wins the bet to be useful.

 For predictions within institutions, role and access management is important.

For personal predictions, UI to quickly enter data is essential. 

answer by Mati_Roy · 2020-10-13T00:58:04.976Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · LW(p) · GW(p)

0) basic features

a) username, login

b) probably other basic things I take for granted

1) oriented towards long content

a) exportable, ideally in an open source format

b) archivable, notably on the Wayback Machine

c) organizational infrastructure and commitment to keep the prediction platform up for the very long term

d) notifications for when a prediction is due (if I'm the one that has to resolve it) or notification for when a prediction is resolved

2) able to input predictions in various formats

a) notably distribution over time

3) able to share a page summarizing my predictions, ideally with the option to have a comment on each

a) categorizing predictions

4) Community features

a) moderators reviewing public questions

b) able to predict on all public questions

c) have a point system that allows never closing questions (unlike Metaculus)

d) able to comment on predictions, reply to comments, tag users, and adjust notifications

5) Advanced predictions

a) able to use the output of some predictions as input for other predictions

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