Best arguments against worrying about AI risk?

post by Chris_Leong · 2018-12-23T14:57:09.905Z · score: 15 (7 votes) · LW · GW · 16 comments

This is a question post.

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  Answers
    19 rohinmshah
    15 Jan_Kulveit
    3 shminux
    2 G Gordon Worley III
None
11 comments

Since so many people here (myself included) are either working to reduce AI risk or would love to enter the field, it seems worthwhile to ask what are the best arguments against doing so. This question is intended to focus on existential/catastrophic risks and not things like technological unemployment and bias in machine learning algorithms.

Answers

answer by rohinmshah · 2018-12-24T05:09:08.922Z · score: 19 (7 votes) · LW · GW

Some outside view arguments:

  • Forecasting is hard, and experts disagree with the AI risk community (though this is less true now, and may be a difference in values rather than beliefs, i.e. longtermism vs. common-sense morality)
  • Past doomsday predictions have all not materialized. (Anthropics might throw a wrench in this, but my impression is that predictions of non-existential catastrophes have been made but haven't happened.) Even if you think you should focus solely on x-risk, this suggests you should focus on the ones that a large group of people agree are x-risks.

And some inside view arguments:

  • The underlying causes of x-risk scenarios also lead to problems before superintelligence, eg. reward hacking. We'll notice these problems when they occur and correct them. (Note that they won't be corrected in the near term because the failures are so inconsequential that they aren't worth correcting.)
  • Powerful AI will be developed by large organizations (companies or governments), which tend to be very risk averse and so will ensure safety automatically.
  • Timelines are long and we can't do much useful work on the problem today.

There are probably more I find compelling, I did not spend much time on this.

answer by Jan_Kulveit · 2018-12-24T12:39:33.947Z · score: 15 (6 votes) · LW · GW

Some of what seems to me to be good arguments against entering the field, depending on what you include as the field.

  • We may live in a world where AI safety is either easy, or almost impossible to solve. In such cases it may be better to work e.g. on global coordination or rationality of leaders
  • It may be the case the "near-term" issues with AI will transform the world in a profound way / are big enough to pose catastrophic risks, and given the shorter timelines, and better tractability, they are higher priority. (For example, you can imagine technological unemployment + addictive narrow AI aided VR environments + decay of shared epistemology leading to unraveling of society. Or narrow AI accelerating biorisk.)
  • It may be the case the useful work on reduction of AI risk requires very special talent / judgment calibrated in special ways / etc. and the many people who want to enter the field will mostly harm the field, because the people who should start working on it will be drowned out by the noise created by the large mass.

(Note: I do not endorse the arguments. Also they are not answering the part about worrying.)

answer by shminux · 2018-12-24T02:56:28.550Z · score: 3 (4 votes) · LW · GW

Scott Aaronson wrote about it last year, and it might count as an answer, especially the last paragraph:

I suppose this is as good a place as any to say that my views on AI risk have evolved.  A decade ago, it was far from obvious that known methods like deep learning and reinforcement learning, merely run with much faster computers and on much bigger datasets, would work as spectacularly well as they’ve turned out to work, on such a wide variety of problems, including beating all humans at Go without needing to be trained on any human game.  But now that we know these things, I think intellectual honesty requires updating on them.  And indeed, when I talk to the AI researchers whose expertise I trust the most, many, though not all, have updated in the direction of “maybe we should start worrying.”  (Related: Eliezer Yudkowsky’s There’s No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence.)
Who knows how much of the human cognitive fortress might fall to a few more orders of magnitude in processing power?  I don’t—not in the sense of “I basically know but am being coy,” but really in the sense of not knowing.
To be clear, I still think that by far the most urgent challenges facing humanity are things like: resisting Trump and the other forces of authoritarianism, slowing down and responding to climate change and ocean acidification, preventing a nuclear war, preserving what’s left of Enlightenment norms.  But I no longer put AI too far behind that other stuff.  If civilization manages not to destroy itself over the next century—a huge “if”—I now think it’s plausible that we’ll eventually confront questions about intelligences greater than ours: do we want to create them?  Can we even prevent their creation?  If they arise, can we ensure that they’ll show us more regard than we show chimps?  And while I don’t know how much we can say about such questions that’s useful, without way more experience with powerful AI than we have now, I’m glad that a few people are at least trying to say things.
But one more point: given the way civilization seems to be headed, I’m actually mildly in favor of superintelligences coming into being sooner rather than later.  Like, given the choice between a hypothetical paperclip maximizer destroying the galaxy, versus a delusional autocrat burning civilization to the ground while his supporters cheer him on and his opponents fight amongst themselves, I’m just about ready to take my chances with the AI.  Sure, superintelligence is scary, but superstupidity has already been given its chance and been found wanting.
comment by Chris_Leong · 2019-04-05T11:16:02.426Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Wow, that's a very shallow and short-sighted reason for wanting AI to come sooner, especially since this is a global issue and not just American. I guess there's a difference between intelligence and wisdom.

answer by G Gordon Worley III · 2018-12-24T20:18:37.055Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

A few others have pointed to this, but I'd say more fully that to me the main reason not to worry about AI risk is that AI alignment is likely intractable in theory (although in practice I think we can dramatically reduce the space of AI minds we might create by removing lots of possibilities that are obviously unaligned and thus increase the probability we end up with an AI that's friendly to humanity anyway). This problem is that we're asking an AI to reason correctly about something we don't have a good way to observe and measure (human values), and those methods we do have produce unwanted results via Goodharting. Of course this is, as I think of it, a reason not to worry, but it is not a reason not to work on the problem, since even if we will inevitable live with non-trivial risk of AI-induced extinction, we can still reduce that risk.

Not exactly what you were meaning to ask for maybe but I think contributes some flavor to the idea we can still work on a problem and care about it even if we don't much worry about it.

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comment by Kaj_Sotala · 2018-12-23T16:56:32.622Z · score: 11 (7 votes) · LW · GW

Note that "best arguments against worrying about AI risk" and "best arguments against entering the AI risk field" are distinct issues. E.g. suppose that AI risk was the #1 thing we should be worrying about and biorisk was the #2 thing we should be worrying about. Then someone who already had a strong interest in biology might be better off entering the biorisk field because of the higher personal fit:

... the most successful people in a field account for a disproportionately large fraction of the impact. [...] Personal fit is like a multiplier of everything else, and this means it’s probably more important than the other three factors [of career capital, altruistic impact, and supportive job conditions]. So, we’d never recommend taking a “high impact” job that you’d be bad at.

comment by habryka (habryka4) · 2018-12-24T00:41:01.091Z · score: 4 (2 votes) · LW · GW

(Made this a question on the author's request)

comment by HoverHell · 2018-12-23T15:30:12.761Z · score: 3 (3 votes) · LW · GW

You are risking to oversaturate the AGI research market relative to other life-changing potential technologies, such as engineered life extension or organizational mechanism design.

comment by avturchin · 2018-12-23T15:52:27.702Z · score: 1 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Such oversaturation may result in two or more internally consistent but poorly compatible AI Safety theories (e.g. distillation-amplification vs. agent foundation), which will end up in two different friendly AI and the the war for correct friendliness will start.

comment by Donald Hobson (donald-hobson) · 2018-12-23T21:28:39.007Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

If we have two distinct AI safety plans, the researchers are sensible to have a big discussion on which is better and only turn that one on. If not, and neither AI is fatally flawed, I would expect them to cooperate, they have very similar goals and neither wants war.

comment by avturchin · 2018-12-23T21:49:50.058Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Historically, it didn't work. A most bitter conflicts were between two main branches of, say, Islam, - Shia and Sunni, or between different socialists groups. We could hope though that rationalists are better in cooperation.

comment by Gurkenglas · 2018-12-23T16:56:24.938Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Distillation-amplification, if it works, should only start a war if the amplified human would have wanted that. Agent foundations theorists afaic predict that the first mover in AI has enough strategic advantage that there'll be nothing worthy of the word war.

comment by avturchin · 2018-12-23T17:27:07.109Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Ok, so should amplified human try to turn off first the agent-foundation-based project which is going to turn off this human if complete?

comment by Gurkenglas · 2018-12-24T04:19:51.549Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

If the amplified human could take over the world but hasn't because he's not evil, and predicts that this other AI system would do such evil, yes.

It's plausible, though, that the decision theory used by the new AI would tell it to act predictably non-evilly, in order to make the amplified human see this coming and not destroy the new AI before it's turned on.

Note that this amplified human has thereby already taken over the world in all but name.

comment by Dagon · 2018-12-23T23:32:26.485Z · score: 2 (1 votes) · LW · GW

There are two common arguments I hear against spending significant personal effort on the topic of AI risk. I don't necessarily endorse either of these (though #1a is my biggest fear on the topic - there's not much about prevention of AI divergence that isn't pretty nightmarish when applied to prevention of human value divergence).

1) There's no coherent description of how this work actually addresses any actual risk. I don't see much reason to believe that working on AI risk actually reduces AI risk. Working on decision theory and moral philosophy may be useful for other things, of course.

2) On the margin (of your effort/results), there are topics you can make more personal impact on and have a larger overall impact on the future.

[ edited to fix formatting ]

comment by Gurkenglas · 2018-12-24T04:29:56.537Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Your comment is malformatted.