Conviction ⚖️ Skepticism

post by lsusr · 2021-01-19T08:04:58.926Z · LW · GW · 4 comments

Contents

  Priors
  Exercise
None
4 comments

Priors

The Bayes equation starts with priors and then updates them via evidence. Priors are what you believe in the absence of evidence. A sufficiently strong prior can outweigh arbitrary evidence to the contrary. If you have the right priors then nothing else is necessary. If you have the wrong priors then evidence and reason cannot save you.

Strong priors are priors that make strong predictions about the future in the absence of evidence. Strong priors are good for domains where there is little evidence. Weak priors declare uncertainty in the absence of evidence. Weak priors are good for subjects where there is lots of evidence.

Weak priors are skeptical. Skepticism a shield that keeps misinformation out of your head. Weak priors are the opposite of conviction. Conviction is a sword for changing the world. Conviction without skepticism is insanity. Skepticism without conviction is hell. Lack-of-conviction plus lack-of-skepticism is conformity. Conviction plus skepticism is creativity.

Skepticism Lack of Skepticism
Conviction Ingenuity Insanity
Lack of Conviction Nihilism Default

If you strive for the divine then you must balance your skepticism against your conviction. They are like opposing muscles. Too much conviction relative to skepticism and you'll self-destruct. Too much skepticism relative to conviction and you'll zombify.

Exercise

What you believe isn't what you say you believe. It's not even what you say is true. Your beliefs are defined by your actions.

When you discover you have been wrong, your priors weaken. When you discover you have been right, your priors strengthen. Skepticism comes from discovering over-and-over that you were wrong. Conviction comes from discovering over-and-over that you were right. Skepticism comes from humbly losing. Conviction comes from courageously winning.

Skepticism and conviction come from the same place. If you venture into the unknown with humility then you will have a chance to strengthen your skepticism. If you venture into the unknown with courage then you will have a chance to strengthen your conviction.

4 comments

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comment by Connor McCormick (connor-mccormick) · 2023-12-21T19:50:48.133Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Skepticism equals not placing bets. Not placing bets demonstrates low confidence in your beliefs. Abstaining from bets exercises your skepticism. Your skepticism goes up when you don't place large bets and then you consequently don't lose.

You can also exercise skepticism by betting against something. E.g. if a scientist puts their reputation on the line to say that some well regarded theory is incorrect, they are simultaneously skeptical and have high conviction. I'd guess in human experience skepticism appears alongside the expectation of negative value outcomes while conviction has to do with positive expected value.

comment by Connor McCormick (connor-mccormick) · 2023-12-21T19:46:10.877Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

When you discover you have been wrong, your priors weaken. When you discover you have been right, your priors strengthen.

Somehow this is incorrect. More true to say that when you get evidence consistent with your hypothesis your posteriors have higher confidence. That's not changing your priors, unless you're talking about the priors for the next round of inference.

comment by JohnCheese · 2021-01-28T08:32:38.131Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

How does one know when and on what to apply her conviction/skepticism? Any general heuristic/strategy?
By the survival value and urgency/importance of the favored result of what one is doing at the moment?

Thanks!

Replies from: lsusr
comment by lsusr · 2021-02-22T09:18:23.531Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Choose whichever path demands the most courage.