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Comment by bhalperin on Most Prisoner's Dilemmas are Stag Hunts; Most Stag Hunts are Battle of the Sexes · 2020-09-16T12:11:03.630Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

(The titular insight seems pretty deep, thanks for sharing this)

Comment by bhalperin on An Equilibrium of No Free Energy · 2017-11-02T15:05:27.640Z · score: 10 (5 votes) · LW · GW

This is not exactly central to your main argument, but I think it's worth pointing out, since this is something I see even economists I really respect like Scott Sumner being imprecise about: Even if markets are efficient (and I agree they pretty much are!), then prices can still be predictable.

This is the standard view in academic asset pricing theory. The trick is that: under the EMH, risk-adjusted returns must follow a random walk, not that returns themselves must follow a random walk. I have an essay explaining this in more detail for the curious.