Posts

Is there a mu-like term that means something like "why is this any of my business?" 2021-04-06T07:47:20.516Z
Apollo Creed problems and Clubber Lang problems -- framing, and how to address the latter? 2021-03-14T01:29:33.414Z
Semaglutide is cool, but no one wants to talk about b. animalis ssp. lactis? 2021-02-15T09:50:30.979Z
Mini thoughts on mintheism 2021-01-11T05:14:59.524Z

Comments

Comment by CraigMichael on Covid 4/15: Are We Seriously Doing This Again · 2021-04-16T00:02:52.051Z · LW · GW

Would like to hear about this too.

Comment by CraigMichael on Is there a mu-like term that means something like "why is this any of my business?" · 2021-04-10T06:58:03.147Z · LW · GW

I’m kind of responding and thinking outloud here.... thanks for being patient it’s taking me to longer to put my finger on this than I thought it might.

I do believe that attention should be treated as sacred, if anything should be.

I was thinking about this in the shower... with with something like “ Lips That Touch Liquor Must Never Touch Mine” or “Believe X” where X is some demographic group of people or a single person, there’s an aspect of “smuggling priors” that I dislike.

While I don’t drink, “Lips That Touch Liquor Must Never Touch Mine” is a shitty argument for not drinking. There’s an implied prior that personal preference in the behavior of romantic partners should be legislated.

But there are plenty of good arguments for reducing or excluding consumption of alcohol, that’s just not one of them.

With the Woody Allen case it’s a lot of “Believe X.” So long as X is describing a human(s), there’s a prior that one kind of human is inherently infallible (or at least substantially more credible).

But there may still be good reasons to pay attention to the case. It may be like there’s a novel takeaway from it similar to Gideon v. Wainwright.

In both situations I am more just fantasizing about a single word or term people could use to politely say “I’m not saying you’re wrong or that I don’t care, but I find your argument and evidence presented for it lacking in (framing, relevance to me, etc) although I could be be persuaded if your argument improved or you had better evidence for it.”

Just kind of seemed like something someone would have thought of before and coined a phrase for.

Sorry if I’m scattered here, thanks for helping my sort it out.

Comment by CraigMichael on Is there a mu-like term that means something like "why is this any of my business?" · 2021-04-08T07:13:36.418Z · LW · GW

That’s true... and maybe part of my frustration.

Tribally it’s the kind of thing people want you have any opinion on one way or another.

If anything I’m searching for, or maybe hoping to seed the idea of, a linguistic trick to get people to go from talking about an opinion one way or another on (for example) Woody Allen, and rather for them to have opinions about forming opinions one way or another on these kinds of things.

Like what is the teleology of forming or having an opinion on Woody Allen and Mia Farrow? If there was only some neat trick to get them there... like a word...

I’m probably obsessing about it too much. Obsessing about people obsessing... feeling so meta right now. :)

Comment by CraigMichael on Is there a mu-like term that means something like "why is this any of my business?" · 2021-04-08T06:42:19.169Z · LW · GW

There is for sure a social hierarchy component to it.

Recently I’ve also been asking myself why I pay attention to the news. I decided that a it’s basically to get an idea of the current Overton window (or windows, as the case is now with various tribes) so I can bring that sensitivity to the state of mind of other people.... but there’s generally very little that’s actionable or relevant to me.

To push back slightly here, I think a term like I’m proposing would be a useful in other circumstances, take for example the slogan used proceeding and during Prohibition:

Lips That Touch Liquor Must Never Touch Mine

A short hand phrase for something along the lines of “that is a matter I’m not entitled to have an opinion on” or more to the point here “this is a matter that doesn’t seem relevant to me and that I would rather not be involved in” ...

... and I don’t mean that in a snarky way. I don’t drink and on average I’d suspect most people would be happier if they and their families didn’t. But I dislike the enjoining quality of the slogan and honesty think a short retort to designed to get the slogan-sayer to reflect on why I should be enjoined and explain as such would make such conversations more productive and less contentious.

Sometimes I’ve found words in other languages there’s terms close to what I’m looking for. The best candidate might be the Turkish word... but that may only be because I don’t know Turkish.

https://en.m.wiktionary.org/wiki/none_of_someone's_business

Comment by CraigMichael on Covid 4/1: Vaccine Passports · 2021-04-04T07:04:18.423Z · LW · GW

There’s an announcement on covidly.com that it’s shutting down at the end of April. Like rt.live it was/is also very useful to me throughout the pandemic.

Reached out to the admin to see how much money they’re talking about.

Notice from the site reads:

Update (April 2, 2021): Operating Covidly for the past year has been an incredible experience but unfortunately I can no longer afford to self-fund this project. If anyone can help out with the costs, please reach out to me. If all else fails, I'll be shutting down Covidly at the end of April. Regardless of the outcome, it's been a great experience working on the project and I'm grateful for all the people I've met as a result of this project 🥰 Alexey

Comment by CraigMichael on Should I advocate for people to not buy Ivermectin as a treatment for COVID-19 in the Philippines for now? · 2021-03-31T22:51:43.194Z · LW · GW

I’m not a doctor. This is not medical advice.

There’s an organization tracking this kind of stuff, see CETF. The most promising treatment they have listed is fluvoxamine. I would get that if you get anything, but it’s still not certain. https://www.treatearly.org/promising-drugs

You should also check Scott’s article on Vitamin D. I think Zinc and D in dosages below TUL daily are not a terrible idea (low risk, medium to high reward). The RCTs are mixed. https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/covidvitamin-d-much-more-than-you

Comment by CraigMichael on Clubhouse · 2021-03-21T07:39:37.724Z · LW · GW

I would like more rooms just for chatting with like-minded people. There's kind of topic focused. Like you need to make a group of clubhouse friends and it's hard to do.

Comment by CraigMichael on Clubhouse · 2021-03-21T07:33:34.506Z · LW · GW

I'm in. What's the link?

Comment by CraigMichael on Clubhouse · 2021-03-21T07:31:21.489Z · LW · GW

"Clubhouse is Snapchat for impromptu podcasts." - what I wish I would have said tonight when someone asked me about Clubhouse. 

Comment by CraigMichael on Return to New York City · 2021-03-18T12:33:15.132Z · LW · GW

I can’t remember exactly what the order was, but there’s a way they do cornbeef sandwiches at Hymie's and Murray's in Philly (where my wife is from) that if you ask for them that way at Katz’s they always ask “oh? Hymie’s or Murray’s?”

In Denver we have The Bagel Deli and New York Deli News. The latter of which is trying too hard to be New Yorkish, but the former has real character and is old school Denver... and Just feels more like a real deli.

I have only two complaints about The Bagel Deli — What I would like is if they had the halva floss instead of (or in addition to) the bars.... also their kugel is pretty sad. Everything else is great down to the celery soda.

Comment by CraigMichael on Covid 3/12: New CDC Guidelines Available · 2021-03-16T04:14:26.249Z · LW · GW

Not trying to be antagonistic, but how so? It applies individually to each virion that would have a mutation that decreases its virulence.

Comment by CraigMichael on Apollo Creed problems and Clubber Lang problems -- framing, and how to address the latter? · 2021-03-15T21:45:53.091Z · LW · GW

Yes! these are exactly what I was talking about. Thank you!

Comment by CraigMichael on Covid 3/12: New CDC Guidelines Available · 2021-03-15T19:46:03.732Z · LW · GW

Does he have anything to say about the case of sars-Cov-2 specifically?

On one hand, yes it seems like there’s something like antagonistic pleiotropy here where most of the transmission is done before the “acute phase” (the time when your o2 sat drops and you go to the ER, there’s probably a better term for that I’m just not sure what it is).

But we’re also applying non-trivial selection pressure via lockdowns and other precautions, and if sars-Cov-2 would stop killing people and just give them a runny nose we would stop and it could reproduce more. I’m just not certain why that isn’t have more of an effect.

Comment by CraigMichael on Open & Welcome Thread – March 2021 · 2021-03-15T19:04:09.211Z · LW · GW

Not specifically by name. It was more of a world of mistake theorists rather than conflict theorists, or scribes rather than actors. http://benjaminrosshoffman.com/actors-and-scribes-words-and-deeds/

I could have conversations with just about anyone about evidence or entertaining an argument about almost anything. Most people would discuss whatever it was in good faith, and they almost certainly wouldn’t try to dox you and try to get you fired. (There were some exceptions, but they were exceptions and not the rule, they were usually scandals in communities when they happened and the predominant opinion was generally against the person doing it).

Now not only are there not many good faith discussion forums, so many topics are verboten and the consequences of discussing can be so dire.

If you post controversial things long enough in the wrong places and have a sufficiently large audience, you can expect real world consequences now. It’s not a “there’s a small chance you’ll have a minor disruption” it’s “if you haven’t bulletproofed your life, expect to lose your job—at least.”

Comment by CraigMichael on How do you estimate how much you're going to like something? · 2021-03-14T08:23:39.292Z · LW · GW

I'm willing to bet you've already heard of it, but it not you may want to read a bit about Affective forecasting. The gist is that we (humans) are typically bad at predicting what we'll like. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affective_forecasting#Improving_forecasts

They seem to hype mindfulness in that section. 

Effort justification also comes to mind: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effort_justification

My take away from both is that context of how the decision to do X was made matters a lot... maybe more than X itself.

 

I might also suggest there's something like a "static fallacy" here (I made that up just now, but hear me out). You would expect your tastes to change and develop overtime as you're exposed to new things. In some sense X would be the same, but you or your relationship with X could change (e.g. like an acquired taste).  There's also habituation to think about. 

I'll even go a bit further and say there's a kind of joy in discovering that you dislike things. I think of RedLetterMedia's Best of the Worst series where the point is to enjoy bad movies. That probably extends to other things--have you ever asked a friend to try something that you found revolting and it was kind of fun to share the disgusting experience together? 

 

I think what most people want to avoid are high investment buyer's remorse type decisions where you spend a lot of time or money on something and discover that it sucks. 

Maybe the best thing to do there is a lot of testing the water. If you can, try small version of whatever it is before you overcommit.  

Comment by CraigMichael on Covid 3/12: New CDC Guidelines Available · 2021-03-14T03:55:22.401Z · LW · GW

Is anyone tracking “variants of indifference?”

By which I mean variants that do the expected thing where mutations increase transmissibility but decrease virulence?

The logic of natural selection would tell us those should be the much more common kinds of variants as they should increase the changes of newer generations of virus surviving to reproduce.

It’s strange to me that all of the variants discussed have both increased transmissibility and virulence. It seems anti-Darwinian.

If there are thousands of VOIs (variants of indifference), which you might predict for every VOC, could that not have an effect on the overall statistics? More people get less virulent VOIs and some immunity?

Comment by CraigMichael on Announcement: Real-time discussions in a new Clubhouse community. · 2021-03-13T21:17:22.367Z · LW · GW

I found it right away.

We should schedule a discussion!

Comment by CraigMichael on Covid 3/4: Declare Victory and Leave Home · 2021-03-13T02:31:35.061Z · LW · GW

I don’t entirely understand the arguments myself, but it goes something like what MarketWatch said here:

“Experts are quick to point out that the clinical trials were conducted at different times — Pfizer and Moderna conducted their trials before several mutated variants had been reported, whereas Johnson & Johnson’s trials were conducted after that. Consequently, Johnson & Johnson has clinical-trial data to show its vaccine can work effectively against variants first reported in the U.K., South Africa and Brazil.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-backlash-against-johnson-johnsons-covid-19-vaccine-is-real-and-riskyheres-exactly-how-to-make-its-rollout-a-success-11615407137

They link to this ABC news page:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/single-dose-johnson-johnson-vaccine-effective-variants-data/story?id=76084549

That actually says it’s least effective against the South African variant.... so... there’s that.

I originally heard about it from my wife who heard about it from Sanjay Gupta’s podcast who said there was a study showing this, but I couldn’t find whatever Sanjay was talking about.

Comment by CraigMichael on Covid 3/4: Declare Victory and Leave Home · 2021-03-12T06:42:07.070Z · LW · GW

Zvi - if you’re taking requests for the next update - would like reviews of the data showing J&J is better at the new variants (which ones and to what do extent and how certain are we)?

Comment by CraigMichael on Covid 3/4: Declare Victory and Leave Home · 2021-03-12T06:31:00.203Z · LW · GW

This is pretty awesome

Comment by CraigMichael on Open & Welcome Thread – March 2021 · 2021-03-11T23:14:07.990Z · LW · GW

Hey - started posting in January but haven’t introduced myself yet. I’m an old man, but trying to pretend that I’m younger.

Have read LW occasionally since the late 2000s and SSC since 2015 or so.

There are a few islands of the Internet left that feel like the Internet felt when I first experienced it in the 90s (called BBSes before that).

In some ways I feel like the Internet was mostly aspiring rationalists (and porn) until around 2007. Now we’re a minority.

Comment by CraigMichael on Announcement: Real-time discussions in a new Clubhouse community. · 2021-03-10T07:14:36.486Z · LW · GW

Joined. As of right now I have two invites if anyone else wants them. You will need to DM me and so will need the mobile number for your iPhone.

Comment by CraigMichael on Covid 3/4: Declare Victory and Leave Home · 2021-03-06T08:42:25.221Z · LW · GW

I have wanted to look at the source code from rt.live for awhile. I'm not sure where they were getting their state by state data from. That might be a place to start? https://rt.live/

Also curious as to where https://covidly.com/ gets their data. 

Comment by CraigMichael on Semaglutide is cool, but no one wants to talk about b. animalis ssp. lactis? · 2021-02-17T19:19:01.453Z · LW · GW

You know, I thought about that when I was writing it. You're right, it should have been more of a content warning. 

Comment by CraigMichael on Participating in a Covid-19 Vaccine Trial · 2021-02-12T10:50:49.289Z · LW · GW

What color was the liquid in the vaccine? B12 is often used for placebos and had a characteristic color.

Comment by CraigMichael on Senior quote ideas · 2021-01-27T01:40:29.135Z · LW · GW

I collect some that aren't specifically rationality-related, but that you might like. http://bit.ly/3sWqIwa (bit.ly just for a layer of privacy). 

Comment by CraigMichael on Senior quote ideas · 2021-01-27T01:39:10.223Z · LW · GW

I collect some that aren't specifically rationality related, but that you might like. http://bit.ly/3sWqIwa (bit.ly just for a layer of privacy). 

Comment by CraigMichael on ThomasJ's Shortform · 2021-01-27T01:24:51.465Z · LW · GW

I like it, but it strikes me as mostly rhetorical. Pies are different than lives are different than yogurt. 

As I'm thinking about it now, there's something like a contrast between orthorexia and right effort. The former is something like taking a virture to a vice, whereas the later has some embedded to to prevent it from being taken too far. 

There may be an overexamined life that is not worth living, but there are also lives where the right amount of effort was put in to examination that were better because of it. 

Comment by CraigMichael on Covid 1/21: Turning the Corner · 2021-01-22T20:05:05.541Z · LW · GW

lol imagining Very Serious People telling us to eat out. Like someone named Colonel Angus.

I mean... are other 80s/90s kids laughing at 'eat out to help out' and then feeling old? Because I am.

Comment by CraigMichael on In Defense of Twitter's Decision to Ban Trump · 2021-01-11T23:15:55.948Z · LW · GW

Your post is a good one and it sucks people are coming down on it that way.

It made me wonder if Eliezer and Jaron Lanier had ever had a conversation before. They did not too long ago and I missed it. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N6MNzvgmHtTASpaSS/bhtv-jaron-lanier-and-yudkowsky -- video is missing from the LW post but is here https://www.youtube.com/watch/Ff15lbI1V9M

I would love to see this happen again with a moderator and some more structure. 

I wonder if this isn't a consequence of a kind of philosophical blind spot in EYs rationalist perspective. Sort of that to EY Twitter represents an achievement to pedestalize rather than a albatross that we've bought in to and accept because of network lock-in effects.

I used to tell people in college that I "had two pack a year habit." I would smoke rarely to strike up conversations because it was an easy ice breaker when I wanted a conversation. Twitter is like that, but instead trading seven minutes of your life you're trading chunks of your humanity.

I mean... I'm jealous of Trump for losing access to his drug of choice. I think it could be a really positive things for him and for all of us. :)  

Comment by CraigMichael on In Defense of Twitter's Decision to Ban Trump · 2021-01-11T20:29:13.666Z · LW · GW

My Translation: I'm worried that banning Trump from twitter will increase polarization because it will make the two tribes more segregated than they were before. This is not that similar to your #7, and otherwise missing from the list entirely.

I can't prove this isn't true, but I believe it's unlikely given what we know about how the algorithms currently work. To generate outrage engagement you want to identify ideas that are being shared on social media in various forms and then find out what groups of people are most enraged by have increased engagement with the platform when viewing them and find ways to show that content to those people more often.

Segregating platforms wouldn't fundamentally change this. I'd say it's a wash either way. 

Comment by CraigMichael on In Defense of Twitter's Decision to Ban Trump · 2021-01-11T20:19:34.453Z · LW · GW

I agree with 6 and 7, and I agree with your conclusion in general--removing Trump at this point in time was better for the world than leaving him on the platforms. Let me point out where I see the gap. 

I believe the model that Eliezer, Naval and Balaji are using here would be correct if this was, say, 2015 before Twitter's timeline went algorithmic. https://www.theverge.com/2016/2/10/10955602/twitter-algorithmic-timeline-best-tweets

In 2020 when someone talks in a way that presupposes Twitter and Facebook are "speech platforms" similar to writing a blog or a book or something like that, the immediate question that comes to mind is if they've read any Shoshana Zuboff or Jaron Lanier?

Twitter is addictive and Trump is a Twitter-addict. To the extent you can blame the existence and marketing of a drug for someone's addict behavior while they're on it, Twitter as an behavioral addiction platform is very culpable in what happened on January 6th. They're something like the drug dealer or the Purdue Pharma the analogy.

If you're Jack Dorsey, getting the president of the Untied States addicted to your technology is a big win. As a corporation Twitter profited off Trump for the better part of a decade and a significant percentage of Twitter's traffic was dependent on his presence there.

A better analogy is something like getting banned from a casino or getting 86'd from a bar. High rollers sometimes get kicked out of casinos even if they still have plenty of money to spend. In a similar sense this is Twitter saying "you've made us a lot of money, but your presence is starting to detract enough from our other customers that on balance you're no longer valuable to us."

... 

I'm nonplussed with Eliezer, Naval and Balaji's takes on this. It may be their own use of Twitter that's making it difficult for them to see (I mean, I do too, but I consciously equate Twitter usage with something like smoking a cigarette in terms of it's impact on my health--and I should cut back). 

In a way, we would all be lucky if we were to get suspended from Twitter.