Quantifying Risk 2021-10-12T14:41:47.401Z
Using Rationality in Mafia 2021-10-05T16:46:55.548Z


Comment by dpandey on Quantifying Risk · 2021-10-12T19:45:14.475Z · LW · GW

Yeah, I think that that's a good point about the one-dimensionality of any unit of measure used to assess risk. It might be possible to effectively start measuring in quality-adjusted life minutes or hours, but that quite quickly becomes a massive headache to calculate, even if it's more accurate to the actual impact on people. I think that using a unit like the mortmile is a good way to effectively make back-of-the-envelope calculations to assess the degree of risk and quickly understand just how risky something is, especially when differences are measured in orders of magnitude (as they usually are).

Comment by dpandey on Betting That the S&P 500 Will Drop Over 30 Percent (i.e. Below 3029) · 2021-10-10T14:38:54.264Z · LW · GW

Where are you getting a billion to 1 odds for the options bet payoff of the S&P going down 30% in the next year? Because if that's true, I'd invest a thousand dollars in that and have a solid chance at becoming a trillionaire.

Comment by dpandey on Using Rationality in Mafia · 2021-10-05T17:14:17.947Z · LW · GW

It's somewhat active, but games take a week or so to begin after signups. Player level is definitely variable.

How do you end up assessing which players are easily manipulated, and how do you "pocket" them without other skilled players catching on to what you're doing?

Comment by dpandey on Vax passports - theory and practice · 2021-10-03T23:26:52.899Z · LW · GW

How strongly are anti-vaxxers incentivised to create fake vaccine passports, anyways? There's a certain aspect that you mentioned—accepting the solemnity of the ritual requires that one submits to the rules, that they agree that they need to show a vaccine card to enter restaurants. Anti-vaxxers by and large either fundamentally object to the vaccine and are proud of that fact, or they are still hesitant to get the vaccine because they're scared of it/think they don't need it/it's too much of an inconvenience/whatever else. For the first group, showing a fake vaccine card shows submission and acceptance to vaccination. To the second, obtaining a vaccine card when free vaccines are available basically everywhere takes both a measure of effort and willingness to blatantly lie that doesn't seem particularly common amongst a population. Thus, I think that at the very least, requiring vaccines to do something will cause large decreases in the number of unvaccinated people doing that thing. I also believe that requiring vaccines to access large and growing parts of everyday life will directly increase the number of vaccinated people, although admittedly I am less confident in this assertion.