What are some of bizarre theories based on anthropic reasoning? 2019-02-03T18:48:17.237Z


Comment by Dr. Jamchie on What are some of bizarre theories based on anthropic reasoning? · 2019-02-05T20:50:13.754Z · LW · GW

Exactly that.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on What are some of bizarre theories based on anthropic reasoning? · 2019-02-05T19:13:02.068Z · LW · GW

Yes, fits right in!

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on What are some of bizarre theories based on anthropic reasoning? · 2019-02-05T19:12:43.672Z · LW · GW

Well the only evidence I have in favor this theory about high IQ is anthropics itself. And it should not be taken as very strong evidence. But perhaps I could make a bit stronger case, if we assume version of anthropics, where only thinking about anthropics counts as observer moments. Then one would have to have at least as high IQ as it is required to understand anthropics in order to think about them.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on What are some of bizarre theories based on anthropic reasoning? · 2019-02-05T18:51:15.458Z · LW · GW

It indeed does apply to almost anything.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on What are some of bizarre theories based on anthropic reasoning? · 2019-02-05T18:47:47.274Z · LW · GW

This is a great list, thanks!

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Could declining interest to the Doomsday Argument explain the Doomsday Argument? · 2019-01-23T20:10:04.127Z · LW · GW

Would it make sense to outlaw talking about doomsday argument?

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Anthropics is pretty normal · 2019-01-20T12:06:35.912Z · LW · GW
And then I might respond by slicing into the definition of observer, creating "half-observers", and moving smoothly between observer and non-observer...

Do you have this written down somewhere in more detail? It seems that for this to work one needs to assume the gradual appearance of consciousness, something like rock<beetle<mouse<ape<human. Will this work if one assumes consciousness to be binary, that it either is or it isn't?

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Solving the Doomsday argument · 2019-01-20T11:08:59.089Z · LW · GW

So what you are saying, is, before one knows his birth rank, one should assume infinite universe? This does actually corresponds to evidence about universe size, but not about human population size.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Solving the Doomsday argument · 2019-01-17T19:30:43.705Z · LW · GW

Lets say you do not know your birth rank at first. Then someone asks you to guess whether the universe is around 200 billion or some very large number. Without any additional data you should estimate 50% for either one. Then you get to know that your birth rank is around 100 billion. Do you not then update, that smaller universe have bigger than 50% chance estimated previously?

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Why is so much discussion happening in private Google Docs? · 2019-01-12T10:41:52.436Z · LW · GW

A guess: google docs comments does not have karma system, so participants are free to tell what they want without worrying about losing points.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on What are questions? · 2019-01-09T20:59:27.614Z · LW · GW

It's a GET request

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Book Review: The Structure Of Scientific Revolutions · 2019-01-09T18:59:19.379Z · LW · GW
If the universe was s.t. it is impossible to compute the trajectory of a tennis ball without string theory, we might have never discovered any physics.

Makes one wonder, what things we have not discovered, because they are in a such way?

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on How did academia ensure papers were correct in the early 20th Century? · 2018-12-31T07:27:12.097Z · LW · GW
This may be the strongest argument to why publications that are agreed to be wrong should not be changed or commented after the fact.

Could you elaborate? How one should know which publications are agreed to be wrong?

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Revealed preferences vs. misaligned incentives · 2018-12-30T19:01:12.745Z · LW · GW

There is a third alternative: being true about your preferences, but realizing you are not in power to do anything about it.

I.e. I prefer to win lottery, but there is nothing reasonable I can do to achieve that, so I drop the participating in lottery altogether. From the outside it might look like I have revealed that I do not want to win a lottery since I do not even buy the ticket. Caring about environment might fall into this category as well.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Moving Factward · 2018-11-29T12:17:51.938Z · LW · GW

And moving factforward long enough we will go back to fact that earth is flat and then analogy does not work any more :/

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Quantum Mechanics, Nothing to do with Consciousness · 2018-11-28T15:59:57.386Z · LW · GW

"Whatever is stopping interference patterns, it looks like detectors, not consciousness."

That is not the case, as shows delayed quantum eraser experiments. Detector does not stop interference if detected information is deleted:

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Anthropics: A Short Note on the Fission Riddle · 2018-07-30T17:48:08.558Z · LW · GW

What difference does memories make if you are already been told whether you are clone or original? I fail to understand this reasoning.

Another similar scenario:

Lets say laws are such that after cloning, both original and clone splits all the money that original has. Now first clone gets 50% of all wealth, second clone gets 25% and so on, while original is left with next to zero after 100 splits. That is same unfairness as in original problem, just instead of probability of having all the money you get the corresponding fraction of the money. There is no way for you to remain with 1% of your money if you are the one who keeps getting split.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Anthropics: A Short Note on the Fission Riddle · 2018-07-29T14:29:46.943Z · LW · GW

What if both clone and original are told which one they are right after cloning? Then probability of being told that you are original twice is still 1/4.

Assume this real life scenario:

100 refugees are met by the king of host country, who says, only 1 of you will become our citizen and other 99 will be slaves. The procedure of selecting the citizen is as follows: we choose 2 of you randomly, then coin is tossed - the looser becomes slave and the winner goes for second round against another fellow randomly selected from remaining 98 and so on. The one who wins the last coin toss becomes citizen.

In this setting if you are selected 1st then you have close to 0 chance to become citizen, as if you are selected last you have 50%. The game is unfair for 1st guys being selected same way as it is unfair for the original in cloning scenario.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on The Beauty and the Prince · 2018-06-28T17:57:36.063Z · LW · GW

But that is not an actual analogy to sleeping beauty. Real analogy would be, that you are a "counted bet", what horse are you more likely to be on?

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on The Beauty and the Prince · 2018-06-27T08:18:04.648Z · LW · GW

And counting bet twice only in case of horse winning is equivalent of betting with 2:1 odds. Bookmaker will only give such odds if probability of that horse winning is 1/3. Hence the 1/3 probability.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on The Beauty and the Prince · 2018-06-27T05:18:05.952Z · LW · GW

Knowing that your bet on this horse will be counted twice does not help you win by bettin on him or against him. Analogy to sleeping beauty would be, that bet is counted twice only if this horse wins.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on The Beauty and the Prince · 2018-06-26T20:24:03.285Z · LW · GW

Suppose there is roulette table. Host throws the ball. If red - beauty is woken up 1 time, if black - two times.

When woken, beauty is asked to bet 1 dollar on either red or black. Roulette betting rules applies. Now there are two beauties - red and black. Red always bets red, black always bets black. Both undergo experiment 100 times.

In roulette red number drops out ~50% of the time. So Red queen wins ~$50 and loses ~$100 as for every black number she bets and looses 1$ twice.

Black queen gets back with ~$50 plus. In halfer world both should end up at 0.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Should we bait criminals using clones ? · 2018-06-12T17:38:26.779Z · LW · GW


Comment by Dr. Jamchie on The Case Against Education: Why Do Employers Tolerate It? · 2018-06-12T17:29:27.626Z · LW · GW

The one who has student loan to pay is less likely to quit job.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on [deleted post] 2018-06-10T12:29:17.894Z

I see.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on The Arc of Time · 2018-06-05T20:49:48.268Z · LW · GW

Although I do find this indeed an interesting parable, yet I fail to see any practical implications of this insight. Perhaps you could elaborate more on if there are any?

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Why kids stop asking why · 2018-06-05T18:41:32.457Z · LW · GW

For me, personally, it was some combination of discovering other, at that time, stronger pleasures and motivators than pure bliss of chasing the truth; depleting most of available resources of interesting information and feeling already smart enough for all intents and purposes. Although curiosity have found it's way back to my life several times since.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Three types of "should" · 2018-06-05T18:09:56.672Z · LW · GW

My concern is that there are some share of people who might have internal desires to do harmful things to others and are smart enough to evade consequences, for whom "internalized should not" is the only thing keeping them from doing those things.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Ms. Blue, meet Mr. Green · 2018-03-03T17:15:05.112Z · LW · GW

You do that. You are the man.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Monthly Meta: Common Knowledge · 2018-03-03T16:43:46.607Z · LW · GW

Lack of money does indeed lead to burn out. I hope you have not had the experience, but it is the way it is.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Upvote/downvote amounts · 2018-03-03T16:39:18.842Z · LW · GW

I would be surprised if it where, given the censorship state currently this site is in.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on The sad state of Rationality Zürich - Effective Altruism Zürich included · 2018-03-03T10:39:38.330Z · LW · GW

Are you saying moderators are upvoting/downvoting posts by more points than is supposed by the system?

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Upvote/downvote amounts · 2018-03-03T09:56:19.202Z · LW · GW

My suggestion is to show up-votes and down-votes separately. Naturally the post that gets no votes at all and post that gets 50 downvotes and 50 upvotes are of different significance and that should be visible.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Inconvenience Is Qualitatively Bad · 2018-03-02T08:38:48.084Z · LW · GW

I believe the worst possible incentive you can think of for somebody who you think is trying to get attention, is to give him attention. That`s just my two cents, not trying to seem as I know how to do your job ;)

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Inconvenience Is Qualitatively Bad · 2018-03-02T07:01:09.654Z · LW · GW
It makes changing our minds less stressful

But what if it feels less stressful exactly because, you actually don't change them? You know how you remember moments in your life better if they there strongly emotional? This suggest that stronger the emotions the bigger the impact on the brain. Then what if something that is interesting, but not stressful, just gives you the warm feeling of changing your mind, but actual neural connections fades away in few days, just like memory about boring conversation you had with colleague at the coffee machine?

I expect if you don't put a little effort into changing your commenting style, you'll continue to be significantly downvoted regularly.

What is interesting is that my second reply in the thread have even more downvotes that the first. Seems that more people read the second post even though it was hidden due to lot of downvotes of parent post. This suggests post being hidden acts as kind of attractor for reading the post. It could be something like "hey this post was heavily downvoted, there should be blood, let me see that stuff". People need action, even rationalists :)

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Inconvenience Is Qualitatively Bad · 2018-03-01T11:47:47.340Z · LW · GW

In my experience, which is not this site and probably not a culture you are from, putting some aggresion is essential part to even start a discussion. I mean proper discussion, which makes people think hard and which makes people to aggree on important things. Everything else is just small talk.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Inconvenience Is Qualitatively Bad · 2018-02-28T08:30:29.500Z · LW · GW

You should appreciate rude if cutting time is a priority in your life.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Mythic Mode · 2018-02-28T08:26:44.012Z · LW · GW

So to again summarise this whole argument: Moloch is a problem, that made you exist and is impossible to solve by definition. So what are you going to do about it? (I suggest trying to answer this to your self at first, only then to me)

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Mythic Mode · 2018-02-27T19:36:54.804Z · LW · GW

Let me put it this way - if this is a problem, you would probably want to solve it? Generally if you want to solve a problem you would prefer it to not have existed in the first place? If yes then you would also not have any of the values you want to save. Considering this, does Moloch still qualifies as a problem?

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Inconvenience Is Qualitatively Bad · 2018-02-27T19:18:45.179Z · LW · GW

So it seems you only eat proceeded food and basically don't walk. How is that affecting your weight?

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Mythic Mode · 2018-02-26T10:45:37.090Z · LW · GW

We might want to preseve those, but can we? By definition we will be outcompeted by those who do not.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Meta-tations on Moderation: Towards Public Archipelago · 2018-02-26T08:35:58.061Z · LW · GW

I see a risk with this approach, that author will have oportunity to hide comments, that does not agree with his opinion. This might kill some discussions in favor of author.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Mythic Mode · 2018-02-26T08:17:36.148Z · LW · GW
Each agent is given an opportunity to sacrifice something important to them in order to gain competitive advantage over the other agents.

Yes, and what I am asking is why those things are important fot them in the first place? Probably because having these things important gave those agents competetive advantage. Love your children? Thats Moloch wants you to replicate your stomach so you could eat mode baby elephants, than you alone could. You only sacrifice those things that Molach himself has given you.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Mythic Mode · 2018-02-25T11:02:32.099Z · LW · GW

I have just recently read Meditations on Moloch and I agree it is fascinating post, but also entirely misses the point. Competition does not make you sacrifice your values, that's how these values came to existence in the first place. There was analogy with rats who came to live in the island and used their spare time to do art, but stopped when resources had depleted. That`s not how story goes. When rats first came to island they did not care about art or any such nonsense, all they did was eat and fuck all day and everyone was happy. But one day, there was no more food to continue to just do that. Only then some rats started to be creative. Turns out if you paint your picture with bigger muscles than you actually have, and you put it on rats-tinder, you get to mate more than if you just posted your real picture. That's how art came to exist in rats island.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Are you the rider or the elephant? · 2018-02-21T17:20:48.001Z · LW · GW

Not directly related to topic, but I was interested: does this identification of oneself with either rider or elephant, somehow correlates to MBTI personality types?

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Is skilled hunting unethical? · 2018-02-18T20:06:19.435Z · LW · GW

I just came up with this name for the thing I think I am seeing here - it's artificial morality. It is when you feel some things are moral and some are not, then you come up with a theory on why some things are moral and others are not, then you apply that theory to come up with other things that should feel moral/immoral and then you try to impose these should feelings to others even though there might not be a single person on earth who actaully feels that.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Speed improvements and changes to data querying · 2018-02-16T22:52:13.897Z · LW · GW

I feel it strange that when you open Daily posts, you see something like 5 days worth of posts and then you need to click "show more days" button. In facebook I don`t need to click anything if I want to scroll down to post 5 years old. I think.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on zlrth's Shortform Feed · 2018-02-15T21:22:16.892Z · LW · GW

They are more alligned with the actual wrongness of an act.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on zlrth's Shortform Feed · 2018-02-15T19:46:40.327Z · LW · GW

To be honest, I like all of your new definitions better that conventional ones.

Comment by Dr. Jamchie on Open thread, February 2018 · 2018-02-15T18:34:43.149Z · LW · GW

Yes, but you see now, with enought details added, second question doesn`t seem to make a lot of sense. "Which" in the question implies that Bob is just on one of the lists, but most likely he isn't. That being said, natural language does not correspond 1:1 to math or statistics. Some ambiguities are expected and a lot of sentences are up for interpretation. Now who is to say that second question you prodived is the correct way to interpret the original problem, and first one is not? First is at least coherent, while second is condradicting itself.