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I admit to only having watched scattered episodes and the pilot, but assuming that the alicorn transformation can only be granted to ponies one could argue upraising the entire population would have a negative effect on the other sapient species such as Gryphons. If she held that position she could even support transponyism inherently, but oppose immediate application until a parallel can be developed for other sapients.
Some possibilities:
- Comparing their own capabilities and lifespans to that of alicorns could demoralise the other races.
- While the danger of alicorns to ponies could be mitigated by general upraising or internal policing, the danger to other races could not without the implementation of alicorn rule.
- As a combination of the above, an alicorn ruling class is innevitable and such as situation might produce individuals Celestia would not trust with alicorn powers.
- If Celestia upraised trustworthy individuals, she would have to be sure to only select those who would be willing and able to only select others also willing and able to select trustworthy individuals to upraise. This extends to your closest friends and your own children. Upraising individuals on a large scale might lead to a deterioration of the sort of society she is cultivating to maximise happiness and safely make the transition to immortality and greater power at a later date.
Considering how much of a threat technology can pose when combined with magic, one or more factions may have deliberately placed an ignorant pureblood into the position in order to keep knowledge of muggle developments marginal.
That implies he at least suspects Harry holds a horcrux...
If it existed and was semi-public knowledge, then Lucius would have made a priority of acquiring some for Draco.
Personally I'm assuming that Quirrelmort rescued Bellatrix to influence Harry. He now has first-hand evidence that Harry was engaged in a major crime, has shown Harry a part of the Wizarding world which he could never accept which was enabled by democracy, has shown Harry that Dumbledore isn't as proactive as Harry would want him to be, almost convinced Harry that a revolution is necessary, convinced Harry to lie to protect him, and has made Harry feel sorry for Bellatrix. Generating a 'false alarm' of Voldemort's return is a nice side effect as well if he doesn't plan on acting immediately, Dumbledore may well have just expended significant political capital too early. If he was planning on going through with the ritual, then he had Harry right there with him. (Although he could have just taken some blood while Harry was asleep, of course.)
The only motivation I can see for him to retrieve her otherwise is that he couldn't remember what happened at Godric's Hollow or to the Longbottoms, so he wanted to retrieve Bellatrix to find out, he regretted what he did to her (seems unlikely), or he's not Quirrelmort, and is really just a powerful but neutral wizard who wants to try and retrieve some of Slytherin's magics.
Ah, very well then. Thank you for clearing that up.
Well, I can mention a theory for the sake of discussion, but it's rather hypothetical.
When it occurred I was assuming that:
Dumbledore as a 'Great Wizard' embodied the virtues Eliezer seems to be emphasizing in the story, including intelligence, hard work, critical thought, and a certain amount of rationality.
Harry's Dark Side is one of Voldemort's Horcruxes or a portion of his soul.
Dumbledore is, at least partly, faking his senility to appear less dangerous to his enemies and make it more difficult for them to predict his action. He's still ready to make difficult decisions when necessary and is a competent leader during war, but feels a great deal of guilt which makes him extremely unwilling to ever escalate any conflicts, preferring passive approaches whenever he isn't forced to fight.
Amelia Bones killed Narcissa Malfoy, and Dumbledore claimed responsibility to protect her and give the Death Eaters the impression he was willing to respond in kind to the killing of non-combatants. He also implied threats towards Draco and/or the children of other Death Eaters, including Hogwarts students. This is also why he tolerates so much bullying at hogwarts, so that those same children will still be present in the event of the leverage being required.
Sirius Black was Mr Hat and Cloak. (Mostly wishful thinking I have to admit.)
Dumbledore really does has a good mental model of Voldemort.
The Canon Love Shield was changed somehow as it didn't fit with the MoR Emphasized Virtues (as I think of them).
Now, to quote.
http://www.fanfiction.net/s/5782108/62/Harry_Potter_and_the_Methods_of_Rationality
"Yes," said the old wizard, "it is time, Harry Potter." The back straightened, only slightly for the wizard had already been standing straight; but somehow even that small change made the wizard seem a foot taller, and stronger if not younger, formidable though not dangerous, his potency gathered about him like a cowl. In a clear voice, then, he spoke: "This day your war against Voldemort has begun.".... "It is important to understand," said Dumbledore, "that this book is not a realistic depiction of a wizarding war. John Tolkien never fought Voldemort. Your war will not be like the books you have read. Real life is not like stories. Do you understand, Harry?".... "No," said the old wizard's voice. "I do not think so. The Death Eaters learned, toward the end of the war, not to attack the Order's families. And if Voldemort is now acting without his former companions, he still knows that it is I who make the decisions for now, and he knows that I would give him nothing for any threat to your family. I have taught him that I do not give in to blackmail, and so he will not try." Harry turned back then, and saw a coldness on the old wizard's face to match the shift in his voice, Dumbledore's blue eyes grown hard as steel behind the glasses, it didn't match the person but it matched the formal black robes.
Although there isn't much/any direct evidence to base any theory on as far as I know, the suspicions my mind provided was that Godric's Hollow was the culmination of a lot of hard work and planning on Dumbledore's part, probably with the help of James and Lily Potter who may or may not have been capable of developing to the same level as Dumbledore. Since Snape is mentioned as being in the same category as Dumbledore and Quirrell, and I thought that Sirius was Mr. H&C who also seems to be on that level, and the Marauders are mentioned as being very capable, I'm assuming that Lily and James are on a similar level to their friends, or at least, were at roughly the level their friends were ten years ago, with some fluctuation at each skill since they probably had different talents.
The big weak-point that I noticed in my idea was that I don't know whether Dumbledore knew Voldemort had horcruxes or was using 'soul magic' at the time, so I'd consider further speculation a lot less likely to be valid.
One possible scenario is that Dumbledore knew Voldemort was developing Horcruxes, and was working with James and Lily to develop a way to use that against him, or detach his soul from his body while prevent him from reviving quickly in the same manner that the Diary Riddle did in CoS. When he heard about the prophecy from Snape he knew that Voldemort would try to kill the possible candidates and/or make a horcrux with their murders. (Although the latter seems less 'evil' and more 'arrogant symbolism', so unless the list was Quirrel(Mort)'s development after his first horrific failure, I'm not sure how likely it is.) He sent the Longbottoms and Potters into hiding while they developed the trap, then had the Potters switch secret keepers to Peter and used Harry as bait to draw Voldemort in. Whether Dumbledore expected the Horcrux to be lodged in Harry's head I'm not sure, but if he did, it may explain why he sent Harry to live with loving Muggles (and may have primed Minerva to be suspicious about how they treated Harry, and made harry defend on other occasions) in order to compensate for the handicaps of giving Harry a bit of Voldemort, while exploiting the edge of experience it seems to give Harry on some occasions to compensate for the huge experience gap between Voldemort and eleven-year-old Harry. In this scenario Sirius might have good reason to distrust Dumbledore, especially since Dumbledore had to keep quiet about who the real secret keeper was so his involvement in the trap wasn't revealed and he could potentially reuse it later unexpectedly, but would probably have been kept out of Azkaban by Dumbledore with some obligation to him. Dumbledore would have deliberately given Harry a love of Muggles to give him a deep conflict with Voldemort who is very much afraid of muggles, keeping Sirius away from his godson, probably causing some additional tension.
It would be very... consequentialistic of Dumbledore, which doesn't fit completely with his character as I see him, but at the same time by the end of the war 'everyone' had lost someone, people were being flayed alive, and he or his supporters were war criminals. If he thought there was a good chance of survival for Harry, especially, I could see it happening. A variation of this masterminded by Lily and/or James is also possible.
Another is that there was a trap, but it was purely defensive, and the way things turned out was unexpected. The Horcrux could have been part of Voldemort's plan to subvert the prophecy by fulfilling the prophecy, then turning the prophecy child into his pawns. However something interfered, presumably, since while it's possible Harry's politcal power is part of the plan to take over in a less violent manner, and that could be Quirrel's current plan, but the muggles have only gotten more powerful during his absence, and he doesn't appear to have taken his most loyal followers (or made some more in the same way he did Bellatrix) and imperiused some high ranking members of the armed forces and political establishment to start world war three during the inter-war period.
The third one was that either Lily or James managed to cast a killing curse on Voldemort, but it only separated his soul from his body, he wasn't outright killed. Possibly as part of someone's plan, possibly not, that part of his soul ended up in Harry, and the 'current' Voldemort doesn't have access to his memories, so he doesn't know what happened.
I wish it noted I wouldn't have mentioned this unless someone else raised the topic and wanted input...
A quick google couldn't find any link to the study itself, if you have a link, could you post it please?
Same as Silas.
The two don't have to be mutually exclusive, although finding the share of responsibility might be difficult.
I can't remember whether it was Dumbledore specifically who was named in that pledge, making it invalid if someone else did it (technically, at least, Draco would probably consider it a betrayal if Harry found out who did it but didn't help him get revenge) but if Amelia did it, then Hermione could be dragged into the situation as well, as a friend of Susan's, and we could have a fascinating obligation tug-of-war for Harry.
I suppose that you could joke about the Weird Ideas and signal you didn't take yourself too seriously to them, which might put them at ease if it convinces them that you aren't implying you're better than they are, and so their status isn't being threatened... but that might kind of defeat the purpose by not doing anything to reduce the bias against non-conventional ideas, I'm not very good at modeling people.
I'd imagine that the Death Eater's own activities would be brought into the lime-light as well, if it were a major arc.
Another thought which occurred, is that Amelia Bones killed Narcissa in revenge for the Death Eater's killing of her family members, then Dumbledore claimed responsibility in order to send a message to the Death Eater's and Malfoy to discourage further attacks on the Order's families, and prevent Lucius from finding any evidence of Amelia's responsibility, which might have allowed him to remove one of Dumbledore's more powerful allies. He probably would have had to have been careful to give the impression that he would be willing to do so 'again' to the other Death Eaters if he wanted them to stop, though, unless Lucius cares a lot more about his allies than shown so far, or at least made some threat against Draco, who Lucius seems to care about.
EDIT: I was wondering how killing Lucius' wife would provide leverage over the other Death Eaters when I realised something rather obvious in retrospect, Dumbledore is the Headmaster of Hogwarts. He already has plenty of leverage, doesn't he? If need be he can hold all the school age children of Death Eaters and their allies hostage, or expell them, denying them good education and potentially giving them a bad reputation. If the parents withdrew the children and sent them abroad though, they could grow up without the knowledge of local politics provided by a hogwarts education (including personal knowledge of everyone important in your age group, which in such a small society, not-having would likely be a big disadvantage.)
I'm quite fond of this for quick statistics for my Economics course; http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ Although the CIA World Factbook; https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/ is my favourite if I have to supply a reference without checking back to government or private statistic sources.
If our universe was an artificial construct, then the potential scenarios spin out of control as we consider the possible motivations of the 'creators'. Although the assumption may not apply in universes with different physical laws, I'll operate on the premise that their computing power is finite.
In the first scenario, the one that normally shows up in popular science programmes referring to science fiction to entertain the audience, this is a game. If we were directly created by the 'creators', then we must be beings that they can conceive of, and reflect some side of their psyche. I don't think this planet is the most interesting setting for a game I could imagine, so assuming we can reflect our creators psyches with our own biases, the only data we'll ever get in this scenario, there are probably more perfect games for them to play. This implies they would only spend limited resources on this particular universe, and running a fully 'rendered' universe, minds and all, when a player isn't in the area would probably increase costs. I know I can think, feel, and, to a degree, comprehend the universe. You know you can think, feel, and, to a degree, comprehend the universe. Everyone reading this knows they can think, feel, and comprehend the universe, although none of us know for sure the others can, at least when we aren't interacting with them. If you're reading this while alone, we can probably say we do it even when another character isn't present, this implies we're more than just NPCs. If it's a game, then you, or someone you know, are probably one of the players. (Ask your dad straight out for a joke if he's playing a ridiculously complicated RPG.) An extension of this possibility is that this is simply a psychology experiment writ large, and I, or you, am actually a member of the creator species planted in this environment for the purposes of the experimenters. If you were the player, however, do you think you would be happy with the 'game' your playing now as pure recreation?
Therefore I think that if you, or me, are self-aware in a game, then we're either doing this as a psychology experiment, or we're side-characters for someone with a more engaging life. (Although the utility functions of any PC races are unknown.) They could be cleaners, sociopaths, or leaders, but we'd be looking primarily for people who show some degree of motivation.
The second possibility is that 'they' have the capabilities to generate an entire universe, or at least one solar system, down to the last atom, in cyber-space. If so, then we can only hope that we're very much a valued experiment, and won't be killed off like a lab rat once our immediate purpose if fulfilled.
Either way, if this is a simulation, we have no power over it, and won't be able to gain information on it. If it's a game, the servers could be reset, and if it's an experiment in such detail we all exist as we think we do, but in a simulation, we could likely be programmed to forget if it suited the programmers.
Besides, if this were a simulation, then we're presumably worthless or insane by the standards of the wider universe. Our actions have the greatest effect in a situation where our universe exists in full, and is a 'physical' universe, while they are all but worthless in a situation where the universe is a game. So to give the best chance of our actions mattering, we should operate under the assumption we, and everyone around us, exists.
Also, 'Well Done. Progress to Level 2!'
Presumably the capital investment everyone frozen gives to the Cryonics Institute would pay for their revival, or perhaps just for the revival and re-education of some of the more interesting people, who would then, hopefully feeling some empathy for the remaining popsicles, pay to have them reanimated later.
I'll just try to be interesting, and somewhat self-sacrificing so someone who reads any of my work might feel guilty enough to have me reanimated.
Or we might just be reanimated to serve as soldiers in a future war as our coping mechanisms leave us just the right type of crazy to stay mostly sane in harsh environments. Who knows?
Ah, edited. Perhaps I shouldn't have made the assumption.
And lo, she did answer the question concisely and effectively! I doubt Bayesianism is available in any of the universities I might be going to though, so I think Economics, minoring in Sociology and Psychology would suit me best.
I think so. The people most given to the introspection that leads to an interest in this philosophy seem to be those somehow marginalized by society, and they typically aren't very socially adept. Which is a pity, given how supportive a background in rationalist literature could be for a psychology student.
Maybe a less statistical one might be better, while interesting, it doesn't easily meet my needs. I'll post one in the morning unless someone else wants to do it, although if privacy is an issue for some people we'll likely need some off-site element.
But how can you even be sure you really exist?! Maybe you're just a figment of someone else's imagination?
I've always wondered, what do people do in the philosophy course? Is it all ancient greek poetry, or is that image outdated?
I'm thinking Stirling university might suit me the best for now, it's outside town, has a good economics department, and is closest to where I live after Aberdeen. Still, I'm not set, did Edinburgh have a decent Economics faculty when you were there?
Greetings Lesswrong
My name is, well, my username. I'm sixteen, currently in my final year of high school, male, and living in Inverness, Scotland.
I first became interested in Lesswrong and it's philosophy after reading some very good fiction here, although many of the references took me time to understand. After sporadically reading the occasional article for a few months, and doing some serious thinking about where I want to be in a few years, I decided to register to better network a few weeks ago. I haven't made notable progress on the sequences yet, although I aim to have finished the ones on the site this year, and hopefully start attending meet-ups if any are near to my university once I've started my course, if my family can afford university and are okay with it, of course. My main interest in the site is it's possibilities for altruism, as we're mostly aspiring consequentialists, we're less likely to be able to justify passive acceptance of the norms like most people I meet seem to. I've met, and know, a fair few good people, but they are mostly what I once saw described here as 'barbarians', albeit extremely noble ones. They do their best for everyone around them, and try to help others, but in a disorganized way I think could be improved with the right coordination, and planning.
For now I hope to get a few questions answered, comment occasionally, and keep quiet until I really grasp the concepts most of the discussion on this site is based on. If there's any other rationalists or aspiring rationalists in the Scottish university system, it would be good to know where they are as well, of course.
I'm trying to do so, but the chances of them being nearby, and of university age seem pretty low. Has there ever been a LessWrong user census? Ages, locations, etc.
Yes, that's something I'm not sure about. There's plenty of good reasons to pursue the goal, and, as far as I've seen, plenty of people willing to support it on this site... but there isn't any obvious coordination. If enough of us could gain positions at universities, spread out to maximize coverage, or focused to 'take-over' an institution, then we would likely see far more success. (Unfortunately none of our current ad-hoc 'leadership' has that much appeal outside the group, so playing politics doesn't look like it would work out well for us.) I'm probably going to try and work towards an Economics doctorate if I can get good enough grades once I'm at university, for example. Once established I'd be able to start writing to the media, try to get a column in an influential tabloid, write a popular science explanation of economics, etc with authority, and try to recruit/support rationalists.
Done. I'm still learning how the site's software works, so thanks for pointing it out.
My apologies. Here's the main thread, but there's a sequence on his plan I can't find listed anywhere but his profile.
Wait, hold the press! There's no reason for the two options to be exclusive. Your brain information could still be preserved while donating your organs after death, if you were in circumstances in which the organs could be harvested while still useful. If you're younger than, say, fifty, this shouldn't ever become an issue, anyway.
Would you like to GM, for the first round at least?
You'd be better off spending your life as it stands on something important, or prominent, (academia or business for example) and becoming an advert for Cryonics. If you gain status, then make cryonics, and rationality, less 'weird'.
That way you get to contribute, and stay alive!
I've seen a few, mostly when I scan my spam folder in case I missed something from Amazon etc, but the thing that annoys me the most is how blatantly false the threats and rewards are. At the very least they could put in the effort to make it seem plausible, maybe threaten to send a virus and offer free porn, or something like that...
I mean, it's a good thing that these criminals aren't very bright, but it's depressing how little effort they put into their career. I'd have thought the inherent risks involved in criminality would have filtered out the laziest people.
...
Running through the woods half naked wouldn't make things any easier, you know. I see what you're saying, but it's more about keeping my 'slate' clean and not getting into trouble for some reason.
That is also a valid point. I don't currently have any exercise clothes beyond old shirts though, so I need to buy some anyway. My wardrobe primarily consists of 'fade into the background' gear, and school uniforms, with an old suit jacket kicking around somewhere.
Normally I'd take the advice, but the woods is owned by the forestry commission. They're subsidised by the government on condition that they let the public, e.g. me, have access, but they run a forestry college there. With all the heavy machinery and chainsaws that implies appearing every so often. I didn't mention it, so you weren't to know, but I'd prefer to be a little safer in exchange for the added boredom and exposure to noise.
Thanks, that would be a simple solution. It seems rather obvious now, I just nod, mutter 'good morning/afternoon' and run on... which they accept as a response without question because I'm there for Serious Running!
My family's relatively well off, and my birthday is coming up, so the cost isn't likely to be a problem unless it's very expensive. I'll check out the sports store next time I'm in town and see what sort of kit they have available. Thanks again.
I really need to get far more strenuous exercise than I currently do, but I can be very uncomfortable exposing myself to any criticism from people I don't already know. I live on the edge of a village nearby to a woods which I currently walk in occasionally. Other people use it regularly, and as a teenager, I often get the impression they think I'm there to drink or do drugs if I'm there at any time other than approximately three o'clock, when my school gets out, although in fairness drunken teens do litter the area regularly. I often find myself lacking energy and motivation, and I've always heard that good exercise can help with depression... I just can't seem to ever work up the determination to start going running,
If someone with better social skills than I could give me some instructions on how to deal with them, that'd be great, although any other advice is very welcome. I always did my best to keep to the sidelines during PE. I have Asperger's if that's any help...
I can vouch for the Pasta recipes with great enthusiasm.
Another food I'd recommend for ease of eating and cheapness, is Shepherdess pie, Shepherd's pie with the meat replaced with vegetables, which I personally prefer. Linkage!
http://allrecipes.co.uk/recipe/5397/shepherdess-pie.aspx
I did a google search for 'batch cooking', and this result may be of interest to you.
Ah, much obliged. Gives Karma\
Well good luck with everything, and make sure you have a route out if something goes wrong. I'm trying to work towards a masters of doctorate in economics once I reach university, for example, but if I am unable to do that, I have the option of simply becoming an economist or assistant economist etc.
I'll PM you if it looks likely to work out, or already has... adds to list\.
EDIT: Can I ask, how do I add an asterisk on this forum without them being read as Italics? (It indicates an action in a lot of forum-dialects.)