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Comment by Fermatastheorem on A LessWrong Crypto Autopsy · 2018-01-30T20:47:58.912Z · LW · GW

I think the percentages of 'successful' LW readers need to be recalculated. What percentage of LW readers were in the SSC survey, but started reading LW after the most profitable window for buying bitcoin had already passed? What percentage were students with no spare funds in 2011, or otherwise had too little risk tolerance to invest?

I started reading LW in 2014, took the advice of the 2015 post to the extent I could, but was only able to make a little money because I didn't have any savings and 1 bitcoin was worth $200. Later, I heard about ethereum very early on from a friend who bought a bunch and was interested in investing myself, but was in the midst of a job transition where I again had no spare cash to invest. I only reported having acquired about $1000 from crypto on the survey, but I count myself as having done about as well as I could have, given circumstances and timing.

Comment by Fermatastheorem on 2013 Survey Results · 2014-01-22T06:33:27.535Z · LW · GW

The only reason I see blue when I look up during the daytime at something higher than a ceiling, an airplane, or a cloud, is because the atmosphere is composed of reflective blue material (air) intervening between me and the darkness of space. I would still like an explanation from the great-great-grandparent as to what constitutes 'turning the sky green'.

Comment by Fermatastheorem on 2013 Survey Results · 2014-01-21T20:33:14.241Z · LW · GW

Nevermind - I thought I'd found a site that would flip a coin and save the result with a timestamp.

Why hasn't anybody made this yet?

Comment by Fermatastheorem on 2013 Survey Results · 2014-01-21T04:32:15.364Z · LW · GW

Yes, it's a timed essay.

Comment by Fermatastheorem on 2013 Less Wrong Census/Survey · 2013-12-23T05:56:19.247Z · LW · GW

Survey taken! Can't wait to see the results.

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 28, chapter 99-101 · 2013-12-20T18:43:00.685Z · LW · GW

I used top-to-bottom, but dires first on each level, and that seemed to work consistently pretty well.

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 28, chapter 99-101 · 2013-12-15T04:28:46.860Z · LW · GW

Or he's telling us that Quirrell is playing the role of someone who is on the verge of dying.

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Advice for a smart 8-year-old bored with school · 2013-10-13T21:09:32.529Z · LW · GW

I didn't intend to devolve into platitudes; sorry if that happened anyway. I was just trying to relate your comment to the general topic.

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Advice for a smart 8-year-old bored with school · 2013-10-12T21:02:58.547Z · LW · GW

What this means is that we should teach the kids what they can and can't change about those things, and how to change them (via hard work), instead of continuing to teach them that appearance and intelligence are completely fixed, and then rewarding them for those traits anyway.

Comment by Fermatastheorem on rational dating - can we escape the rat race be setting smarter goals? · 2013-09-11T05:41:32.781Z · LW · GW

Data point: your final paragraph is an accurate description of my expercience as well.

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 27, chapter 98 · 2013-08-31T04:32:28.930Z · LW · GW

World dom... er, optimization doesn't include politics?

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 26, chapter 97 · 2013-08-23T04:00:54.103Z · LW · GW

Thank you!

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 26, chapter 97 · 2013-08-22T19:32:05.623Z · LW · GW

Do you have an example of this happening?

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 26, chapter 97 · 2013-08-19T04:13:13.310Z · LW · GW

Not the same; agreed. However, there was no ritual done to Harry!Horcrux in JKR-canon either.

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 26, chapter 97 · 2013-08-19T03:43:08.106Z · LW · GW

Last paragraph of this Pottermore screenshot describes him as an 'effective horcrux' I presume because he's possessed by the remaining part of Voldemort's soul.

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 26, chapter 97 · 2013-08-19T02:07:22.582Z · LW · GW

Thief's Downfall probably does this.

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 26, chapter 97 · 2013-08-19T02:00:07.137Z · LW · GW

'ought to' is often not the some as 'do' especially when the subject is Wizarding Britain.

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 26, chapter 97 · 2013-08-19T01:57:36.216Z · LW · GW

For that, I'd point to undermind's comment that this is only what Harry wants the Malfoys to know.

There might also be an element of Harry's art as a rationalist being forgotten when he needs it most.

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 26, chapter 97 · 2013-08-17T08:56:00.109Z · LW · GW

prolonged scream

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 26, chapter 97 · 2013-08-17T08:47:34.884Z · LW · GW

What if the Galleons are actually fake gold created by Goblins, and they can tell 'fake' currency because it's real?

That way, only the Goblins can test for 'real' vs. 'fake' currency because the wizards all have it backwards.

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 26, chapter 97 · 2013-08-16T22:22:44.517Z · LW · GW

This only narrows Harry's list to 'The Defense Professor and people who could rig the wards to say the Defense Professor killed her.' Dumbles is easily on that list.

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 26, chapter 97 · 2013-08-16T05:07:27.880Z · LW · GW

(...but we know he is.)

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 26, chapter 97 · 2013-08-16T02:09:30.777Z · LW · GW

Maybe on ff.net as a one-shot spinoff?

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 26, chapter 97 · 2013-08-15T19:56:03.964Z · LW · GW

True, Hermione doesn't have a link to Voldemort.

I am aware of how horcruxes work and V had eight in canon (although only one was another human - the only example of such a horcrux that we have. There is no mention anywhere whether it's impossible to horcrux two humans). I tried to leave the possibility open that V and Harry's connection is something other than a horcrux, although my wording wasn't as clear as it could have been.

I like the Bellatrix possession idea a bit better than my own, but I don't think we've hit on Lucius' reason yet.

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 26, chapter 97 · 2013-08-15T19:10:02.790Z · LW · GW

Perhaps that Hermione is also Voldemort in the same way HJPEV is Voldemort (since, Horcrux or not, that seems the likely explanation for Harry's power and bloodthirst)?

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 25, chapter 96 · 2013-07-29T01:39:31.931Z · LW · GW

I think Dumbles is trying to tell McGonagall that he took the Potters there while letting her keep plausible deniability.

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 24, chapter 95 · 2013-07-18T06:23:12.041Z · LW · GW

I think probably the latter. His conclusion is "So you really do care" not "So other people aren't rational enough to try to ressurect their loved ones."

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 23, chapter 94 · 2013-07-15T03:21:51.581Z · LW · GW

My model of Eliezer wouldn't troll us that blatantly.

Then again, this is the guy who wrote Quirinius One-Level-Higher-Than-You Quirrell.

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Seed Study: Polyphasic Sleep in Ten Steps · 2013-07-12T03:08:41.245Z · LW · GW

How much did you sleep on a monophasic schedule?

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 23, chapter 94 · 2013-07-08T21:55:33.756Z · LW · GW

If only Godric's twin hadn't been killed at birth...

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 23, chapter 94 · 2013-07-08T20:33:03.065Z · LW · GW

My first thought was that Dumbledore was referring to Salazar Slytherin. However, there can certainly be additional interpretations.

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 22, chapter 93 · 2013-07-08T07:21:13.132Z · LW · GW

Because Quirrell's going to claim he's been framed.

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 22, chapter 93 · 2013-07-07T01:39:12.542Z · LW · GW

What if Harry transfigured the bedsheet to look like Hermione, and the transfiguration wore off some time later?

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 21, chapters 91 & 92 · 2013-07-05T18:52:54.928Z · LW · GW

According to this interview, Hermione no longer has a sister in canon either.

The relevant Q and A:

Does Hermione have any brothers or sisters?

No, she doesn’t. When I first made up Hermione I gave her a younger sister, but she was very hard to work in. The younger sister was not supposed to go to Hogwarts. She was supposed to remain a Muggle. It was a sideline that didn’t work very well and it did not have a big place in the story. I have deliberately kept Hermione’s family in the background. You see so much of Ron’s family so I thought that I would keep Hermione’s family, by contrast, quite ordinary. They are dentists, as you know. They are a bit bemused by their odd daughter but quite proud of her all the same.

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 20, chapter 90 · 2013-07-02T23:37:06.966Z · LW · GW

The latter explanation was my assumption. I am curious whether this capacity loss transfers across bodies when one is possessing someone else or has been resurrected.

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 20, chapter 90 · 2013-07-02T23:33:45.996Z · LW · GW

The trace is only placed on muggleborns. The Ministry expects magical parents to supervise the magic use of their own children.

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 20, chapter 90 · 2013-07-02T23:31:56.493Z · LW · GW

Probably, because the Ministry is in charge of cleaning up after abovementioned slips in the Statute of Secrecy.

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 20, chapter 90 · 2013-07-02T21:50:07.661Z · LW · GW

Does Dumbledore observe Quirrell's interaction with either Harry or McGonagall?

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 20, chapter 90 · 2013-07-02T21:44:05.290Z · LW · GW

I agree, but he also doesn't want the universe destroyed in the process.

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 20, chapter 90 · 2013-07-02T17:52:33.319Z · LW · GW

Would Harry have access to the sword, being a Ravenclaw?

Comment by Fermatastheorem on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 20, chapter 90 · 2013-07-02T17:33:48.765Z · LW · GW

In canon, Hermione casts Obliviate in her 7th year (presumably without consulting a restricted text from the Department of Mysteries), so the widely available book may actually have enough information for an intelligent reader to learn how to cast it.