The Value Is In the Tails 2020-04-10T16:53:23.064Z


Comment by fylo on April Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-04-25T15:31:10.383Z · LW · GW

Hi all,

Does anyone know why US cases and deaths tend to be lower on Sundays and (especially) Mondays, compared to other days of the week? Is it something with the timing of how the data are processed?

I put up some quick plots here:

Apologies if this has been explained before and I missed it.

Comment by fylo on Open Thread March 2019 · 2019-03-19T15:27:43.153Z · LW · GW

Thanks for the response!

It's interesting to see what your concerns are. There's probably less research on these kinds of feedback loops/tail risks then there should be. Part of the problem is just how uncertain they are -- a combination of the difficulty of measuring things like methane releases and the problem of not being able to resolve these processes in models. Our best guide is probably paleoclimate observations, but I'm not an expert on these.

In terms of blogs, Real Climate is the best place to start. They can get combative, and they aren't always the most rigorous researchers, but they at least give you a sense of what's going on. Isaac Held is a giant in climate science and had a very widely-read blog for a few years, but he's mostly gone quiet since the Trump administration took over (he's a federal scientist). Going through his posts is a great way of getting caught up on the field. I put up notes here occasionally. And for someone with more of a "denier" bent, Judith Curry is worth checking out (though she clearly wants to push the discussion in specific directions). Finally, if you have access to it, Nature Climate Change publishes a lot of good stuff (with the caveat that it wants to publish high profile work), including summaries and perspectives which give overviews of specific subfields and questions. Any important work on tipping points and feedback loops will be in a Nature journal.

Comment by fylo on Open Thread March 2019 · 2019-03-16T00:11:54.552Z · LW · GW

Hi, I'm a postdoc in climate science, just made an account. I've been reading SSC off and on for about two years, then started exploring LW more recently and wanted to join the discussion.

I'm curious what questions you have about climate science, and what resources you think are needed to make it more accessible? More blogs? More easily accessible review papers?