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Interesting! I've never seen someone try to make a such a comprehensive set of baseline rules, it seems like a good project!
I think the most controversial item here is 13:
Markets will resolve early, even if the outcome is unknown, if the degree of uncertainty remaining is insufficient to render the market interesting, and the market is trading >95% or <5% (or for markets multiple years in advance, >90% or <10%), and I agree with the market but feel it mostly reflects Manifold interest rates. Markets will not be allowed to turn into bets on interest rates. However if it could still plausibly resolve N/A, then I will hold off.
Could you give some examples of markets you think this rule should apply to? For example, I run the the market on Eliezer's 150k UFO bet:
Would you resolve that market early, if you were the market creator and if it never went below 90% for a year?
For your own markets, is this policy retroactive? Will you resolve this market early?
Since it looks like we won't be getting a canonical answer, any thoughts on what exactly the Peverell Prophecy means?
"Three shall be Peverell’s sons and three their devices by which Death shall be defeated."
Blegging*
Having the Death Eaters look around makes sense, but the paralysis seems contrived to me. It's a very specific level of intelligence between what he have now and just having Mr. Grim cast Expelliarmus. I think it is more realistic for Voldemort to have dismissed the threat than for him to have considered it and decided that paralyzing Harry was the best solution.
Has anyone actually tried to answer the Ultimate Trolley Problem? I'm thinking right.
Would this censor posts about robbing banks and then donating the proceeds to charity?
Ah damn it.
Alright, you win there.
Are you referring to the sexual stuff? I don't think that shows a difference in his personality so much as a lack of censorship. I could easily conceive of canon Draco making such comments, but them never being in the books due to censorship.
All the adults certainly were, but what about the students? Draco was the same before Harry started corrupting him, Ron's still an idiot, Neville is still a Hufflepuff, etc. Maybe Fred and George are a bit more awesome, and Zabini is an entirely different person, but aside from that Harry's peers seem to have been kept to the same level. If Hermione were a sensible person, she'd probably outclass Harry just as much as she does in canon, and then the story would be Hermione Granger and How She Learned the Methods of Rationality and Became Omnipotent.
I think a lot of this should be blamed on Rowling, not Eliezer. Hermione is pretty much the same as she is in canon, and I don't think we can fault him for not upgrading her.
Wow, that is... that is the gaudiest checkered top hat I've ever seen.
Does anyone else think this might be a hint? It's not the same as H&C's "broad-brimmed black hat", but I find it interesting that it's mentioned at all. If we rule out all the suspects who have already been considered in 87, who are probably all red herrings, Flamel stands out as one of the few wizards clever enough to play such a game, along with Sirius Black.
Some of us are going to need a link explaining this system.
They can't interact magically, so no.
Why is it just Luke doing the AMA? Eliezer already has an account for HPMOR, after all.
I think it's pretty clear he got that information, along with many of his other dark secrets, from the Basalisk.
How about Animagus-ing into an immortal jellyfish? Certainly not an ideal life, but if it lets you keep old age at bay long enough the muggles will discover human immortality.
Yeah, I'd really like to know Eliezer's reasoning here. What are the possible advantages of this change?
I suppose it is technically more accurate, since not all adult wizards are more dangerous than Dementors or Trolls. Dark Wizards, on the other hand, specifically train to be so.
I'm very much in favor of removing the Ghostbusters song from canon, and putting it in the Omakes.
Bella isn't under the influence of a love potion, though.
I think it was fairly obvious that he was manipulating Lily into not choosing to sacrifice herself for Harry. She was initially going to sacrifice herself "for him" and with a few choice words Quirrell got her to attack him.
There are many ways Eliezer could have had Harry not be eligible for magic protection, E.g. just have Lily try to kill Voldemort straight away. Instead he made it look exactly as it would if Quirell wasn't an idiot who didn't know anything about love magic and was trying to prevent a love-shield.
It's possible he was just screwing with her, but It seems too coincidental that for him to screw with her in exactly that way.
I think Harry's Memories of Godric's Hollow are supposed to tell us that Quirrell knew better then to allow the sacrifice to take place, not that it just doesn't exist. I think we'd probably know if Eliezer had completely removed it, just as he explained his nerfing of Unbreakable vows.
Even though Harry doesn't have magical-love-protection, I think we should take note of the fact that it's probably still in play and fairly broken.
If Quirrell could get Bellatrix to take a deadly spell from for him, he'd have Love's permanent protection against Dumbledore(if that were the caster). And, with the right amount of cleverness, he could probably arrange for her death to protect all death-eaters in the same way Harry provided protection to all of Hogwarts.
Frankly I wouldn't put it past Dumbledore to arrange for something similiar, for the greater good.
I believe I do.
What reason do you have to believe we're more inclined to weirdness?
I realize that even a small percentage of English-speakers is still a huge number of people, but I don't think it's more than half of all the potential rationalists in the world.
I think the subredddit is already doing so.
Isn't Less Wrong supposed to be partially about counteracting those? The topic must have come up at some point in the sequences.
What about vitamins/medication? Isn't Ray Kurzweil on like fifty different pills? Why isn't everyone?
What practical things should everyone be doing to extend their lifetimes?
I don't think anyone failed to see the signs that Quirrel is Voldemort in HPMOR. There are just those of us who believed it to be a Red Herring, because "that's how stories are supposed to work." If a potential solution to a mystery seems very obviously true in the first quarter of the story, then in most stories it's probably not the true solution. . Of course, at this point there's just no denying it.
I think it has to be cold-blooded murder, not a utilitarian sacrifice.
So, Eliezer isn't human? Or am I missing something?
I wasn't referring to the actual vote, but rather to the reaction to Harry's speech.
Some of the members of the Wizengamot were looking abashed at the Boy-Who-Lived's admonition, and a few others were nodding violently to the old wizard's words. But they were too few. Harry could see it. They were too few.
And that's just those who agree that Children shouldn't be exposed to dementors, and it seems to be like it's <20%. It's probably only around .1% of the population who don't want anyone of any age given to the Dead Things.
Try not to take this as me being a big snobby snob, but did you actually read them?
I don't think that would actually make sand, it must be the game-discs.
Never mind, the "far too few" comment Harry makes during the trial means you're likely correct.
More like 60%, I think.
This chapter reminded me very much of Dusk Specks vs Torture, and if I wasn't before I'm now very confident that Harry is soon going to get very utilitarian on us.
Eliezer seems to be taking a page from Alicorn's book. In Luminosity Alice is plagued by differing visions as Bella constantly changes her mind about her future, and then the actual future snaps into place when a final choice is made.
Nice catch.
I'm now wondering exactly how the prophecy system works. Did Harry's resolution alter time and directly cause these seers to see what they saw?
Despite the many good reasons to believe Quirrell is H&C, My Red Herring Alarm (©) wouldn't stop going off while Harry was going over the list of suspects. My gut is usually fairly good at seeing plot-twists coming, and it's very certain there's someone Harry is forgetting about. Anyone else getting a similiar vibe?
The thing is, with Cryonics you aren't just fighting normal ignorance that can be destroyed with good publicity, you're fighting Religion. If you start telling people that (Zues Forbid) death is bad and worth a significant financial risk to avoid, the Christian Right are going to get upset. There would be boycotts organized against companies supporting Cryonics, who would be portrayed as avaricious atheists trying to fight the natural order.
The world's sanity level isn't high enough for this sort of thing, not yet.
Tried to stick with it, got bored shortly after they met a Fairy Queen or something.
This is in fact the reason I know Draco will still have some role in the story. But we really should get some main character deaths if the story is ending.
I don't believe the soul is split every single time one kills. Dumbledore's telling Harry that Voldie's soul accidentally split during that night suggests that it was an unusual event, not something that happened several times per week. I believe Rowling also specifies that it was just one extra piece of Voldemort's soul that had to find something to latch onto, not hundreds.
So if the accidental split was due to the murder of one of the Potters, I think it was probably the innocent child, the killing of which woudl probably have more powerful soul-ripping powers.
I was under the impression Hogwarts was founded over a millennium ago. With a wizard's lifespan being around 200 at most, the founders would need to have raised Hogwarts as infants for the hat to only have existed for 800 years.
I wonder, what was its last prank?
But Harry is a Slytherin. At his very core is his ambition to become immortal and reorganize the universe to his satisfaction. He wants knowledge, and he wants it for its own sake, but it's not his deepest wish. If he looked into the Mirror of Erised he'd see himself as the benevolent and omnipotent lord of the universe, not himself surrounded by books.
So, this isn't going to be the actual new thread, right?