A Game of Giants [Wait But Why] 2019-08-30T05:48:00.035Z


Comment by kilotaras on What are some real life Inadequate Equilibria? · 2021-03-10T16:23:06.143Z · LW · GW

Here's transcript of the episode

This focuses on a pilot attempt to introduce this for California state taxes.

Some highlights

  • In the 2004 tax season, they sent ReadyReturns out to about 11,000 taxpayers along with this little survey.
  • 99 percent of the people said that they would like to use it next year

And indeed

  • Norquist thought ReadyReturn is tantamount to a tax hike because
  • Norquist put out the word to California Republicans - if you back ReadyReturn, you have broken the pledge [to not rise taxes]
  • "so and so - I've even forgotten the legislator's name - is not with us. It looks like we're going to be one vote short."
Comment by kilotaras on Sunday June 21st – talks by Abram Demski, alkjash, orthonormal, eukaryote, Vaniver · 2020-06-20T18:29:57.065Z · LW · GW

Click here to see time in your timezone.

Comment by kilotaras on April Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-04-08T19:13:46.968Z · LW · GW

Harvard published a study on link between PM2.5 pollution and mortality.

We found that an increase of only 1 μg/m3 in PM2.5 is associated with a 15% increase in the COVID-19 death rate, 95% confidence interval (CI) (5%, 25%)

Places most hit so far are on the more polluted side so one can expect final CFR/IFR be lower than estimated from current data.

Comment by kilotaras on On Equivalence of Supergoals · 2018-04-24T13:44:23.873Z · LW · GW
In reality, however, scientific progress seems to be accelerating. Of course, it's hard to measure, but I've seen claims that the portion of the 21st century that has passed has already brought more scientific discoveries than all of the 20th century, let alone the ones before, and these claims don't seem implausible to me.

There's a recent paper on the topic "Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?" According to data analyzed there rate of scientific discoveries in existing fields (e.g crop yields increase, Moore's law, etc.) remains close to constant while number of researchers constantly increases.