Comment by Nicolas Lupinski (nicolas-lupinski) on "It's a 10% chance which I did 10 times, so it should be 100%" · 2025-02-27T23:56:02.929Z · LW · GW

In collectible games, after 1/p trials, there is 1/e = 63% chance to get a desired item.

But a full collection is completed in -ln(p)/p trials in average. For p = 1/n, its n*ln(n).

For instance, getting an outcome with 10% frequency requires in average 10*ln(10) = 23.026 trials.
1% is 460 trials
1/1000 is 6900 trials, etc...

In gacha games, developpers can guarantee you a 10% event in every 10 trials. The market fits irrationality, for a price.
 

Comment by Nicolas Lupinski (nicolas-lupinski) on Open Thread Winter 2024/2025 · 2025-02-23T11:50:59.719Z · LW · GW

I don't remember. Maybe the writing of Scott Alexander brought me here ? Back in the slate star codex days?

Comment by Nicolas Lupinski (nicolas-lupinski) on Open Thread Winter 2024/2025 · 2025-02-21T22:48:43.485Z · LW · GW

Hello

I've been lurking on this website for a few months now. I'm interested in logic, computer science, ai, probability, information... I think I'll fit here. I speak French in every language I know.

I hope I'll be able to publish/discuss/coauthor on lesswrong, or somewhere else.