Posts

[Link] Sarah Constantin on RaDVaC 2021-02-05T16:08:41.777Z
What's going on with this failure of Bayes to converge? 2019-12-19T03:58:13.883Z
Taxi Industry Regulation, Deregulation, and Reregulation: The Paradox of Market Failure 2019-12-16T08:05:01.044Z
Pricing externalities is not necessarily economically efficient 2019-11-09T12:07:46.509Z
Meetup Notes: Ole Peters on ergodicity 2019-11-03T23:31:01.889Z
Who captures economic gains from life extension treatments? 2019-10-24T05:17:05.524Z
What economic gains are there in life extension treatments? 2019-10-24T05:12:51.902Z
Stanislav Petrov Day Celebration 2019-09-22T02:19:55.652Z
Rationality Reading Group 2019-05-12T19:56:27.233Z
[Seattle] Rationality Reading Group + Dinner 2019-01-10T06:53:11.450Z
Welcome to The Territory 2019-01-10T06:47:17.081Z

Comments

Comment by Orborde on Seattle, WA – October 2021 ACX Meetup · 2021-10-14T02:14:44.091Z · LW · GW

If you're here and cannot find us, text 317-457-9714.

Comment by Orborde on OpenAI Codex: First Impressions · 2021-08-16T00:40:59.375Z · LW · GW

+1

I finished at 11:44:16 AM and placed #193, and I didn't really start until about 10:30AM. The puzzles were not very hard, so I infer that there were not a very large number of contenders.
 

Comment by Orborde on Arrow grid game · 2021-02-28T15:46:20.486Z · LW · GW

I'm confused about this diagram. Is it plotting out activity preferences?

Comment by Orborde on [Link] Sarah Constantin on RaDVaC · 2021-02-05T16:44:54.155Z · LW · GW

It looks like her objection is that the RaDVaC folks chose some pretty questionable peptides. Presumably you could simply order some different peptides, but I think you'll run into the following problems:

  • You need to pick peptides that will, in the RaDVaC formulation, wind up folded similarly to their conformation in the live virus. I, personally, have no idea how to do that.
  • You don't really have much evidence of immunogenicity for your new RaDVaC formulation and probably need to measure it again (my understanding is that the RaDVaC designers have done some immunogenicity measures in themselves, so the current formulation has some evidence of immunogenicity).
Comment by Orborde on A vastly faster vaccine rollout · 2021-01-13T00:34:18.767Z · LW · GW

A medical worker who tried to sign up for vaccine administration recruitment was confronted with needing 21 pieces of paperwork showing that they had completed various trainings, many of which have nothing to do with vaccination.

Care to paste a source link?

Comment by Orborde on Prize: Interesting Examples of Evaluations · 2020-11-29T02:43:49.261Z · LW · GW

Stress tests

Many systems get "spot-checked" by artificially forcing them into a rare but important-to-correctly-handle stressed state under controlled conditions where more monitoring and recovery resources are available (or where the stakes are lower) than would be the case during a real instance of the stressed state.

These serve to practice procedures, yes, but they also serve to evaluate whether the procedures would be followed correctly in a crisis, and whether the procedures even work.

  • Drills
    • Fire/tornado/earthquake/nuclear-attack drills
    • Military drills (the kind where you tell everyone to get to battle stations, not the useless marching around in formation kind)
  • Large cloud computing companies I've worked at need to stay online in the face of loss of a single computer, or a single datacenter. They periodically check to see that these failures are survivable by directly powering off computers, disconnecting entire datacenters from the network, or simply running through a datacenter failover procedure beginning to end to check that it works.
  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stress_test_(financial)
Comment by Orborde on Prize: Interesting Examples of Evaluations · 2020-11-29T02:05:41.459Z · LW · GW

Current open market price of an asset

Public, highly liquid markets for assets create lots of information about the value of those assets, which is extremely useful for both individuals and firms that are trying to understand:

  • the state of their finances
  • how successful a venture dealing in those assets has been
  • whether to accept a deal (a financial transaction, or some cooperative venture) involving those assets
  • (if the assets are stock in some company) how successful the company has been so far
Comment by Orborde on Prize: Interesting Examples of Evaluations · 2020-11-29T01:54:51.051Z · LW · GW
Comment by Orborde on Limits of Current US Prediction Markets (PredictIt Case Study) · 2020-11-27T08:46:55.165Z · LW · GW

PredictIt also limits the number of traders on a given contract to 5,000.

Comment by Orborde on Pricing externalities is not necessarily economically efficient · 2019-11-10T11:54:39.844Z · LW · GW
it assumes that the Pigouvian tax is set to $100,000 instead of the opportunity cost of the pollution (in this case $50,000)

How are you calculating "opportunity cost"? Is it simply the land use conversion cost ($50,000)?

Comment by Orborde on Pricing externalities is not necessarily economically efficient · 2019-11-09T12:08:33.146Z · LW · GW

Posting because the title of this linkpost was a big surprise for me.

Comment by Orborde on Meetup Notes: Ole Peters on ergodicity · 2019-11-04T01:07:21.047Z · LW · GW
even if Peters et al are wrong about expected utility, do you think they're right about the dangers of failing to understand ergodicity?

Not sure. I can't tell what additional information, if any, Peters is contributing that you can't already get from learning about the math of wagers and risk-averse utility functions.

Comment by Orborde on Meetup Notes: Ole Peters on ergodicity · 2019-11-03T23:32:36.440Z · LW · GW

Tangentially: reading about the history of gambling theory (the "unfinished game" problem, etc.) is pretty interesting.

Imagine how weird it was when people basically didn't understand expected value at all! Did casinos even know what they were doing, or did they somewhat routinely fail after picking the wrong game design? Did they only settle on profitable designs by accident? Are blackjack, roulette, and other very old games still with us because they happened not to bankrupt casinos that ran them, and were only later analyzed with tools capable of identifying whether the house had the edge?

Comment by Orborde on What economic gains are there in life extension treatments? · 2019-11-03T23:14:45.649Z · LW · GW

ChristianKI is right - I was speculating that people would stop retiring. Updated my post to make that clearer.

Comment by Orborde on What economic gains are there in life extension treatments? · 2019-10-24T05:22:53.945Z · LW · GW

Relevant book: https://www.juvenescence-book.com

Comment by Orborde on Why didn't Agoric Computing become popular? · 2019-05-03T08:51:28.245Z · LW · GW
While I'm not terribly familiar with the details, I've heard complaints of this happening at one university that I know of. There's an internal market where departments need to pay for using spaces within the university building. As a result, rooms that would otherwise be used will sit empty because the benefit of paying the rent isn't worth it.

This is confusing. Why doesn't the rent on the empty rooms fall until there are either no empty rooms or no buyers looking to use rooms? Any kind of auction mechanism (which is what I'd expect to see from something described as a "market") should exhibit the behavior I've described.