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Comment by osuniev on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81 · 2015-04-01T11:16:08.787Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Well, so much for that !

Comment by osuniev on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, February 2015, chapters 105-107 · 2015-02-17T13:32:03.017Z · score: 1 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Comme le titre l'indique, ce roman cherche à être rationnel.

Comment by osuniev on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, February 2015, chapter 104 · 2015-02-17T13:06:15.913Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Yes, it's used to make the Elixir of Life.

Comment by osuniev on What are your contrarian views? · 2014-09-21T11:05:54.404Z · score: 7 (6 votes) · LW · GW

I read this trying to keep as open a mind as possible, and I think there is SOME value to SOME of what he said (ie no two experiments are totally the same and replicators often are motivated to prove the first study wrong)... But one thing that really set me off is that he genuinely considers a study that doesn't prove its hypothesis as a failure, not even acknowledging that IN PRINCIPLE, this study has proven the hypothesis wrong, which is valuable knowledge all the same.

Which is so jarring with what I consider the very basis of science that I find difficult to take Mitchell seriously.

Comment by osuniev on What are your contrarian views? · 2014-09-20T23:02:45.924Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

But things ARE moving in this direction, I believe. Bolivia is trying to figure a way to start getting money from the world's largest reserve of lithium, currently untouched because under the natural wonder Salar de Uyuni

Comment by osuniev on You are the average of the five people you spend most time with. · 2013-09-05T01:09:36.531Z · score: 8 (8 votes) · LW · GW

Correlation is not causation. Who you are defines your friends probably as much as your friends define who you are, AND both are mainly consequences of something different entirely (which schol you went too, etc...)

Comment by osuniev on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 27, chapter 98 · 2013-09-03T19:08:54.139Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

In canon, Apparition becomes unreliable across long distances (as in, very few people could reliably travel to another country by Apparating, and even less (no one ?) to another continent). If this is true in HPMoR universe, then Apparate to the Pioneer plaque is out of question.

Comment by osuniev on Earning to Give vs. Altruistic Career Choice Revisited · 2013-08-29T17:53:49.683Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

I'm not sure if you were answering my comment or wubbles's one. What I was saying was that you need to take into account the negative impact your job and way of life have on the world.

I agree that the US government probably is terrible at using tax money to better the world.

Comment by osuniev on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 19, chapter 88-89 · 2013-08-28T23:29:18.141Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Well, I may have read too much into this statement, that's true. I always assumed that Dumbledore conveniently "going to the Ministry of Magic" on a broomstick or with a Thestral (and not using one of the million other possibilities such as Floo Powder, Portkey, Apparating), then SUDDENLY realizing halfway that Hogwarts is where he ought to be were meant to signify the adult reader that, unlike what Canon!HP understood, Dumbledore knew all along and was trying to trick Voldemort/Quirrel into trying to get the Stone (which was safe inside the mirror of Erised). It also explained the perfect timing of Hagrid and Harry retrieving the Stone from Gringotts the exact same day Quirrel/Voldemort broke in. The Stone had in my opinion been a bait all along, to try and catch the Dark Lord while waiting for the Chosen One to be old enough to defeat him.

Comment by osuniev on Earning to Give vs. Altruistic Career Choice Revisited · 2013-08-28T22:54:48.476Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

THIS. Although I`m unsure about the particulars you mention here, being an European, people and effective altruists need to realize that your job is INSIDE the world you live in. Estimating how much good you're producing is not just about how much money/time you're giving to effective charities, but also how much your way of life is helping/damaging the world.

Comment by osuniev on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 19, chapter 88-89 · 2013-08-28T22:48:54.334Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

In Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Imperiused Pius Thicknesse is charged by the Death Eaters with imperiusing other members of the MoM. (Or was he the one being imperiued by an imperiused ?)

Comment by osuniev on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 19, chapter 88-89 · 2013-08-28T21:23:15.795Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Quote ? I think the 7th book of the chronicles of Narnia clearly establishes that Aslan IS, in fact, Jesus in a very litteral sense.

Comment by osuniev on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 19, chapter 88-89 · 2013-08-28T16:03:22.068Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

Well he did know, as we find out in the 7th book.

Comment by osuniev on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81 · 2013-08-01T00:04:48.803Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Putting my wager where my mouth is : http://predictionbook.com/predictions/20831

Comment by osuniev on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81 · 2013-07-31T23:52:04.806Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

In light of chapters 96 I would update this chance to 45 %.

Comment by osuniev on Rationality Quotes April 2013 · 2013-04-03T08:03:02.764Z · score: 9 (9 votes) · LW · GW

I would say this is not ALWAYS true. But for the purpose of civilized discussion between human beings, it does seem like a very useful rule of thumb.

Comment by osuniev on Tolerate Tolerance · 2013-03-15T16:30:28.878Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Maybe because you are hurting and getting hurt, but these "enablers of foolishness" are getting hurt while they don't (consciously) hurt others, and therefore would probably consider unfair to be attacked.

Comment by osuniev on Tolerate Tolerance · 2013-03-15T16:23:22.477Z · score: 5 (5 votes) · LW · GW

Well, as a kid I got bullied at school, quite a bit, and I DO remember bullying other a handful of times.

I remember being conscious about it and feeling like shit for it, but at the same time being so relieved because as long as someone else was being bullied, I wasn't.

I certainly did not enjoy it, mainly because it contradicted my vision of myself as a courageous victim.

Comment by osuniev on Tolerate Tolerance · 2013-03-15T16:18:00.287Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

´Well, tolerating them has a good chance of signalling to neutral observers that you are not a pompous jerk, and therefore listen to your ideas favorably.

Comment by osuniev on The Power of Positivist Thinking · 2013-03-15T15:59:00.711Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

(...Except when faced with a rationality-punishing deity)

And even there, arguably, the true beliefs of "this deity punish rationality" and "this deity uses this algorithm to do so" could lead to applying the right kind of behaviour to avoid said punishment.

Comment by osuniev on The Power of Positivist Thinking · 2013-03-15T15:50:57.941Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Well, rationalists should end up "winning" insofar as winning means "doing better than non-rationalists ON AVERAGE.

Then again, it doesn't mean all rationalists end up living 120 years old and extremely rich. If yo are a non-rationalist born with 1 billion of dollars on your bank account you'll probably end up richer than a rationalist born in North korea in a poor family with no legs and no arms.

But on the other hand, if you cannot identify the causes for your defeats as completely independant of yourself, it probably means you are doing something wrong or at least not optimally.

In the lottery example above, there is 99 other worlds where the rationalist who bought the tickets is better off than the man who did not (unless the lottery is rigged, in which case the rationalist is the one who realised that this smells funny and doesn't buy tickets). Or more intuitively, if there is a lot of such lotteries, the Rationalist buying the tickets every time will end up richer than the man who doesn't.

IN YOUR LIFE, there is probably enough such "lotteries" for you to end up better off if you are rationalist than if you are not, and reliably so.

(and "you did everything right" but maybe the right thing to do would have been to arrive at the sales office earlier).

Comment by osuniev on Action and habit · 2013-03-12T16:42:37.273Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

Arguably... They could be.

http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1857113,00.html

It is really easy (and almost costless) to reduce the quantity of water they use. It might indeed seem an abonimation to continue using them.

Comment by osuniev on Action and habit · 2013-03-12T16:37:00.726Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

That sounds like a rather bad idea to me. Not eating means being hungrier next meal, and will probably lead to... overeating. What's more, it seems having many small meals is better than having a few big meals (your glucose level is more stable, and your insuline regulation will be less likely to make you overweight).

Comment by osuniev on Fairness vs. Goodness · 2013-03-08T09:18:06.828Z · score: 3 (3 votes) · LW · GW

/ Reeves, if both players play (C, C) and then divide up the points evenly at the end, isn't that sort of... well... communism?

Is this wrong for other reason than cached thoughts though ? (Probably yes, but you didn't explain it).

Comment by osuniev on Self-fulfilling correlations · 2013-03-07T14:46:45.748Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

Well since he starts the sentence with SOMETIMES,wether it's negative or positive his sentence is correct. I guess you could nitpick on insisting that corr(X,Y) != 0 ...

Comment by osuniev on No One Can Exempt You From Rationality's Laws · 2013-02-25T23:44:24.601Z · score: 4 (4 votes) · LW · GW

upvoted for not taking argument as soldiers.

Comment by osuniev on The Robbers Cave Experiment · 2013-02-16T22:09:09.652Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

beware of spoilers.

Comment by osuniev on The Robbers Cave Experiment · 2013-02-16T22:03:53.719Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

Just in case : "1984" was written in 1947. The original title of the book was to be "1948", the editor asked Orwell to change it so he reversed the numbers.Or so I have heard, I can't seem to find the confirmation, if anyone could confirm or infirm ?

Comment by osuniev on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81 · 2013-01-02T11:22:44.635Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

HPMOR!Harry's wand signalled itself to him by BLUE and BRONZE sparks, while Canon!Harry's one made red and gold. (IMO as a reference to the Phoenix, not Griffindor).

I'd take it as a strong hint from EY that Ravenclaw IS Harry true House.

Comment by osuniev on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81 · 2013-01-02T10:33:57.383Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

Well, each of them successively defied Death by asking a gift from it. Still far-fetched, I admit.

Comment by osuniev on By Which It May Be Judged · 2012-12-23T02:36:59.448Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

"How is this relevant?"

It is relevant because i you cannot find any experimental differences betweenn you and a you NOT experiencing, then maybe there is no such difference.

Comment by osuniev on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81 · 2012-12-23T02:28:05.740Z · score: 4 (4 votes) · LW · GW

re-reading chapter 76 made me realise the prophecy could not be about Voldemort at all :

Let's look at this prophecy in detail :

"The one with the power to vanquish the Dark Lord approaches,"

Vanquish, as Snape said, is a strange word to describe a baby accidentally toasting Voldemort, especially since we have evidence that this might not be what really happened. "Dark Lord" is used by EY quite loosely, and not as something specifically relating to Voldemort. Indeed, Dumbledore seems to worry that he could be this Dark Lord. Now, if we step outside of what we think we know about the prophecy...

Who is Harry trying to "vanquish" ? Who is it which Harry has "the power to Vanquish" ?

Dementors ? Death in general ? Dementors as an incarnation of Death ?

Could Death be considered as the Dark Lord ? I admit this is stretching the use of the word Dark Lord, but it does sounds interesting and more appropriate to Vanquish. Now, bear with me a moment and let's look at the rest of the prophecy : Born to those who have thrice defied him,

Now, while Lily and James have defied death 3 times, there's a million person in the same case on the planet. But WHO has defied Death three times in the Universe ?

The Peverell Brother. Harry's ancestors through the Potter Family.

Born as the seventh month dies, And the Dark Lord will mark him as his equal,

The Tale of the Three Brothers specifically says : "..."And then he [the third brother Ignotus, owner of the Cloak] greeted Death as an old friend, and went with him gladly, and, as equals, they departed this life." Harry having the Cloak works, as such. Alternatively, Harry "killing" Dementors make Death and he litteraly equals, in that they can destroy each other.

But he will have power the Dark Lord knows not,

The only unique powers Harry has are Dementor 2.0 and partial transfiguration Dementor 2.0 seems rather good.

And either must destroy all but a remnant of the other, For those two different spirits cannot exist in the same world.

I find really interesting that nowhere it is said that the dark lord "lives". "Destroy all but a remnant" could mean Dementing Harry, or Destroying all dementors except one, or giving Philosopher's Stones to everyone but without the death rate falling to zero (because accidental Death would still happen buit would not be an inevitability.

Note that this theory (still improbable, if I had to bet on it I wouldn't assign more than a 15 % chance for Death to be the "Dark Lord" of the prophecy) is still compatible with Dumbledore trying to trick Voldemort in a Dark ritual, or both of them interpreting the prophecy as in canon.

Comment by osuniev on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81 · 2012-12-23T01:59:27.815Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

For all those wandering WHY wizards don't use their powers to get money from the Muggle economy...

Canon!Lucius does, according to Rowling (from her website Pottermore):

" The Malfoy name comes from old French and translates as 'bad faith'. Like many other progenitors of noble English families, the wizard Armand Malfoy arrived in Britain with William the Conqueror as part of the invading Norman army. Having rendered unknown, shady (and almost certainly magical) services to King William I, Malfoy was given a prime piece of land in Wiltshire, seized from local landowners, upon which his descendants have lived for ten consecutive centuries.

Their wily ancestor Armand encapsulated many of the qualities that have distinguished the Malfoy family to the present day. The Malfoys have always had the reputation, hinted at by their not altogether complimentary surname, of being a slippery bunch, to be found courting power and riches wherever they might be found. In spite of their espousal of pure-blood values and their undoubtedly genuine belief in wizards' superiority over Muggles, the Malfoys have never been above ingratiating themselves with the non-magical community when it suits them. The result is that they are one of the richest wizarding families in Britain, and [b]it has been rumoured for many years (though never proven) that over the centuries the family has dabbled successfully in Muggle currency and assets. Over hundreds of years, they have managed to add to their lands in Wiltshire by annexing those of neighbouring Muggles, and the favour they curried with royalty added Muggle treasures and works of art to an ever-expanding collection. "

Comment by osuniev on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81 · 2012-12-23T01:54:32.748Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

For all those wandering WHY wizards don't use their powers to get money from the Muggle economy...

Canon!Lucius does, according to Rowling (from her website Pottermore): The Malfoy name comes from old French and translates as 'bad faith'. Like many other progenitors of noble English families, the wizard Armand Malfoy arrived in Britain with William the Conqueror as part of the invading Norman army. Having rendered unknown, shady (and almost certainly magical) services to King William I, Malfoy was given a prime piece of land in Wiltshire, seized from local landowners, upon which his descendants have lived for ten consecutive centuries.

Their wily ancestor Armand encapsulated many of the qualities that have distinguished the Malfoy family to the present day. The Malfoys have always had the reputation, hinted at by their not altogether complimentary surname, of being a slippery bunch, to be found courting power and riches wherever they might be found. In spite of their espousal of pure-blood values and their undoubtedly genuine belief in wizards' superiority over Muggles, the Malfoys have never been above ingratiating themselves with the non-magical community when it suits them. The result is that they are one of the richest wizarding families in Britain, and [b]it has been rumoured for many years (though never proven) that over the centuries the family has dabbled successfully in Muggle currency and assets[/b]. Over hundreds of years, they have managed to add to their lands in Wiltshire by annexing those of neighbouring Muggles, and the favour they curried with royalty added Muggle treasures and works of art to an ever-expanding collection.