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Can an agent use interactive proofs to check the alignment of succesors? 2020-07-17T19:07:54.072Z
Vulnerabilities in CDT and TI-unaware agents 2020-03-10T14:14:54.530Z
Implications of Quantum Computing for Artificial Intelligence Alignment Research 2019-08-22T10:33:27.502Z

Comments

Comment by pabloamc on Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines · 2020-09-04T10:03:14.981Z · LW · GW

My prediction. Some comments

  • Your percentiles:
    • 5th: 2023-05-16
    • 25th: 2033-03-31
    • 50th: 2046-04-13
    • 75th: 2075-11-27
    • 95th: above 2100-01-01
  • You think 2034-03-27 is the most likely point
    • You think it's 6.9X as likely as 2099-05-29