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Comment by zimtkerl on Fluent, Cruxy Predictions · 2024-07-16T09:45:14.767Z · LW · GW

I got a Fatebook account at the beginning of 2024. After concluding the "Frictionless" section of this post, I felt encouraged to install the Firefox extension and make a prediction to share here.

Given that I haven't had time to read the full post in detail and that I feel that I want to get better at actively using predictions as a planning and calibration tool - and knowing that I may have time to dedicate to this activity within the next two weeks - I made the following, simple prediction.

⚖ Will I finish reading the post "Fluent, Cruxy Predictions" by Raemon within the next two weeks? (Nonmonotonica X: 65%)

Since I would like to take something concrete away from this post, I would want to find an area where setting up an action plan is relatively straightforward, so that I can focus on the prediction part. I already have few ideas, so I am quite confident that I will have found one by the time I will come back to this article:

⚖ Will I find a suitable area or goal where I can pair planning with prediction making using Fatebook and following Raemon's article? (Nonmonotonica X: 75%)

Thank you for taking the time to writing down this post.

Comment by zimtkerl on Probabilistic Payor Lemma? · 2023-03-20T12:57:41.329Z · LW · GW
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Are you deriving these two points only using the axioms provided in the "Setup" section, or are you assuming all four axioms stated afterward here?

Comment by zimtkerl on [deleted post] 2022-03-24T10:49:29.487Z

You are welcome. By the way, I really enjoyed delving into this work of yours, it is pleasant to read and its intricate structure provides a lot of fun. Thank you!

Comment by zimtkerl on [deleted post] 2022-03-23T20:22:39.767Z

"The tentacled brain launched itself at the Memnuela"