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I think having a probability distribution over timelines is the correct approach. Like, in the comment above:
yanni-kyriacos on Why I'm doing PauseAII think I'm more likely to be better calibrated than any of these opinions, because most of them don't seem to focus very much on "hedging" or "thoughtful doubting", whereas my event space assigns non-zero probability to ensembles that contain such features of possible futures (including these specific scenarios).
Hi Tomás! is there a prediction market for this that you know of?
yanni-kyriacos on Why I'm doing PauseAII think it is unrealistic to ask people to internalise that level of ambiguity. This is how EA's turn themselves into mental pretzels.
tigerlily on How would you navigate a severe financial emergency with no help or resources?Thank you for your response. I probably should have given a more exhaustive list of things I have already tried. Other than a couple things you mentioned, I have already tried the rest.
Before becoming a stay-at-home parent, I was a writer. I wasn't well paid but was starting to earn professional rates when I got pregnant with my second child and that took over my life. I have found it difficult to start writing again since then. The industry has changed so much and is changing still, and so am I. My life is so different now. I'm less sure of what I write - no longer young enough to know everything, as Oscar Wilde said. I feel like I'm trying to leap onto a speeding train from the ground, like I'm watching for an open doorway or a platform I can grab onto as the train roars past me at 100mph.
My children -- yes, I have children. They are with their dad most of the time. It was his mother's house we were living in when the domestic violence situation got so severe that the courts got involved and separated us, and when that happened it was I who had to leave. His mother was not about to turn out her son and let me stay in her house, especially since he was the breadwinner and the one paying rent to her. And I was not going to drag my children into a precarious housing situation. There are no emergency housing resources where I live aside from shelters which are known for being miserable, overcrowded, prison-like, and difficult to get into anyway. So my children have stayed in the safety of their dad's home. His mother came from across the state to help, and while I'm relieved to see that she is taking the responsibility of caring for them seriously, she is also tenaciously possessive over them. This is still very painful for me to talk about.
mako-yass on "AI Safety for Fleshy Humans" an AI Safety explainer by Nicky Caseoften means "train the model harder and include more CoT/code in its training data" or "finetune the model to use an external reasoning aide", and not "replace parts of the neural network with human-understandable algorithms".
The intention of this part of the paragraph wasn't totally clear but you seem to be saying this wasn't great? From what I understand, these actually did all made the model far more interpretable?
Chain of thought is a wonderful thing, it clears a space where the model will just earnestly confess its inner thoughts and plans in a way that isn't subject to training pressure, and so it, in most ways, can't learn to be deceptive about it.
mako-yass on "AI Safety for Fleshy Humans" an AI Safety explainer by Nicky CaseThis is good! I would recommend it to a friend!
Some feedback.
But overall I think it addresses a certain audience who I know much better than my version of this that I hastily wrote last year when I was summoned to speak at a conference would have (and so I never showed it to them. Maybe one day I will show them yours.).
michaeldickens on If you weren't such an idiot...Update: I finished my self-experiment, results are here: https://mdickens.me/2024/04/11/caffeine_self_experiment/
o-o on William_S's ShortformI assume timelines are fairly long or this isn’t safety related. I don’t see a point in keeping PPUs or even caring about NDA lawsuits which may or may not happen and would take years in a short timeline or doomed world.
razied on Which skincare products are evidence-based?Weird side effect to beware for retinoids: they make dry eyes worse, and in my experience this can significantly decrease your quality of life, especially if it prevents you from sleeping well.
mishka on William_S's ShortformHowever, none of them talk about each other, and presumably at most one of them can be meaningfully right?
Why at most one of them can be meaningfully right?
Would not a simulation typically be "a multi-player game"?
(But yes, if they assume that their "original self" was the sole creator (?), then they would all be some kind of "clones" of that particular "original self". Which would surely increase the overall weirdness.)