New Year's Prediction Thread (2012)

So... how did I do for my 2011 predictions?

The unemployment rate in the United States will continue to be above 8%: 90%

Apparently correct.

"Core inflation" of the U.S. dollar (which ignores food and energy prices) shall remain below 2.0%: 80%

Apparently incorrect. It wasn't much higher, but it was still higher.

The fifth book in the "A Song of Ice and Fire" series will be published: 5%

Wrong. To my surprise, the book did indeed come out.

A superintelligent AGI will be created: Less than 1 in 1 million

As expected, no AGI.

The Large Hadron Collider will destroy the world: Less than 1 in 1 million

As expected, the world is still here.

My 96-year-old grandmother survives another year: 67%

Wrong again here; she died in January.

The Riemann hypothesis is proven: 1 in 5000

As expected, no proof.

I qualify for the Magic Pro Tour: 1%

As expected, no qualification.

I get a "real job": 1%

As expected, no job.

Before I give my predictions for this year, a record of how I did on last year's predictions.

General AI will not be made in 2011. Confidence: 90%

Was correct.

The removal of DADT by the US military will result in fewer than 300 soldiers leaving the military in protest. (Note that this may be hard to measure.) Confidence: 95%.

I haven't been able to judge this. It looks hard to tell but seems to be correct. However, to a large extent this being correct extended from something I didn't anticipate- it took much longer to actually implement the repeal than I expected, so the repeal took effect fairly late in the year.

The Riemann Hypothesis will not be proven.

I initially gave this 75% but further discussion suggested I was underconfident and so I bounced this up to 95% and was correct.

Ryan Williams recent bound on ACC circuits of NEXP (See here for a discussion of Williams work) will be tightened in at least one of three ways: The result will be shown to apply for some smaller set of problems than NEXP, the result will be improved for some broader type of circuit than ACC, or the bound on the circuit size ruled out will be improved. Confidence: 60%

Was incorrect.

At least one head pastor of a Protestant megachurch in the US will be found to be engaging in homosexual activity. For purposes of this prediction "megachurch" means a church with regular attendance of 3000 people at Sunday services. Confidence: 70%.

A few such scandals occurred but none of them were in churches nearly large enough. So this was incorrect.

Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities: Confidence 80%.

Was incorrect.

So with this out of the way new predictions. I'm not including here any predictions that have an end date of 2013 which I've already put in PredictionBook.

The first four predictions are predictions which are updated versions of predictions from last year:

Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities, or the North Korean government will collapse. Confidence: 75%

The Riemann Hypothesis will not be proven in 2012. Confidence 95%

P != NP will not be resolved in 2013. Confidence 95%

General AI will not be built in 2013. Confidence: 95%

The next set of predictions is about computational complexity:

The relationship between P and BQP will not be resolved in 2012. Confidence: 85%

There will be improvement in efficient matrix multiplication in 2012 that will be discussed in at least one of the following blogs: Combinatorics and more, Shetl-Optimized, Godel's Lost Letter. Confidence: 52%

In 2012 there will be new results for either the group isomorphism problem or the graph isomorphism problem discussed at at least one of the following blogs: Combinatorics and more, Shetl-Optimized, Godel's Lost Letter. Confidence: 52%.

No improvement in factoring integers in a classical setting that has better time-asymptotics than the best current ones will be made in 2012. Confidence: 85%

The next two predictions have to do with the integer complexity problem. (Background on that can be found here.)

No one one will resolve in 2012 whether integer complexity function is asymptotic to 3log_3 n. 58%

I will coauthor at least one paper on integer complexity by 2013. Confidence: 61%

The next few predictions concern space travel and exploration.

Humans will continue to have at least one functioning probe on Martian surface or a satellite around Mars for all of 2012. Confidence: 98%

Russia will lose at least one rocket launch in 2012 . Confidence: 55%

No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012: Confidence 96%

The Hubble Telescope will continue functioning though 2012. Confidence: 85%

Miscellaneous predictions:

HPMOR will update at least twice in 2012. Confidence: 75%

In 2012, I will go to at least two open viewing nights for telescopes in the greater Boston area. Confidence: 58%

I will not become a vegetarian in 2012. Confidence: 80%

My mother will not read any books by Steven Pinker this year. Confidence: 85%

I will have a total LessWrong karma of at least 10,000 by the end of the year. Confidence: 75%

Meta-predictions:

At least one of the above predictions will turn out to be correct for reasons that are surprising to me. Confidence: 80%

Romney will be the Republican presidential nominee: 80%.

Obama will win reelection: 90%.with a non-Romney presidential nominee, 50% against Romney

The Occupy Wall Street protests will fade away over the next year so much that I no longer hear much about them, even in my little liberal hippie news bubble: 75%

There will be massive fanboy backlash against The Hobbit: 80%. Despite this, the Hobbit will be a pretty good movie (above 75% on Rotten Tomatoes): 70%

John Carter will be a pretty good movie (above 75% on Rotten Tomatoes). 85% Whether or not it is a good movie, I will love it. 95%

I will get my first death or rape threat this year: 80% My reaction to the death or rape threat will be elation that I've finally made it in feminist blogging: 95% Even if it isn't I will totally say it is in order to seem cooler: 99%

My comod and I will complete the NSWATM spinoff book this year: 75% It will be published as an ebook: 80% It will not make the transition to dead-tree-book this year: 90% It will make the transition to dead-tree-book eventually: 60%

I will break up with my girlfriend at some point over the next year: 60%.

I will acquire a new partner at some point over the next year: 90%.

(Reposting because parent was downvoted below default visibility. Original post here)

There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs. The US will send aid but will not directly engage Israel's enemies. Japan will join in on Israel's side after the radicals sink oil tankers on the way to Japan. The Russians will sit this one out. Turkey may or may not take part, but if they do it will be against Israel.

On February 13th, President Obama will be assassinated by ninjas. This will lead to a political crisis, which Sarah Palin will exploit to get elected to the White House. On August 18, in a public address to a worried nation, the Secretary of State will declare, 'Two nukes were not enough'. To prevent the destruction of the Holy Grail, Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres and the Organisation will forge a temporary alliance with the intent of neutralizing America's nuclear arsenal. The plan will fail because of sabotage by SEELE. In desperation, Harry Potter will kill every member of the American administration using the Death Note. He will be summoned by the Wizengamot to answer charges of violating the Statute of Secrecy. Having discovered the SEELE plot, however, he will go to Antarctica and attempt to stop it instead of returning to Britain. The Wizengamot will then rule for the repossession of the assets of Potter Finance, and Lord Draco Malfoy will be unable to overrule them. This will trigger civil war in Magical Britain, which will eventually engulf the rest of Magical Europe.

Meanwhile, in Japan, the remnants of the Tohsaka and Matou clans, the late Kiritsugu Emiya's band, and the Church will forge an alliance to deal with the combined forces of the Chaos Legion and the Organisation. They will be defeated, but Ginevra Weasley and Neville Longbottom will be assassinated by Shirou Emiya and Rin Tohsaka respectively. The Organisation and the Legion will try to backstab each other simultaneously, which the Integrated Data Entity and the Sky Canopy Dominion will try to take advantage of. Yuki Nagato will attempt to betray the Entity and will be deleted from existence as a consequence. In retaliation, Kyon will use his trump card on Haruhi Suzumiya, whose annoyance with this whole long-winded FUBAR will create a timequake so severe that it will cause the Second and Third Impacts to occur simultaneously, wiping out all life on earth except for a timid boy and a narcissistic girl with mommy issues. This will happen on December 21.

.... Wow, so the Mayans were right?

Confidence: 99% (Thanks to katydee for the reminder.)

Discussion about a possible fic based on this bizarre mish-mash of universes may be found here

I predict that the youtube music video with the most views of 2012 will either be:

1) A Farsi reggae version of "Good King Wenceslas", by an Iranian who has publicly wished for the death of Barack Obama or;

2) A pudgy middle-aged guy singing about some district of Seol that no non-Koreans have ever heard about. In Korean. Also, he will have publicly expressed the wish that the family members of American servicemembers will die.

And the president will watch this performance and applaud.

ALSO I predict that at least one American presidential candidate will publicly take a stance against a major character from Sesame Street.

ALSO I predict that the Queen of Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Great Britain will be seen parachuting into London, or at least her stunt double will do so with her apparent consent, if not pleasure.

Most fearsome of all: I predict (rot13 for the faint of heart)

Guvf pbzzrag vf n cynprubyqre. V cerqvpg gung, nobhg n lrne sebz abj, V'yy rqvg guvf pbzzrag gb ergebnpgviryl znxr zlfrys ybbx oevyyvnag. Ng guvf cbvag, V fubhyq cebonoyl vafreg fbzr xvaq bs rzbgvpba be fbzrguvat gb vaqvpngr gung V'z abg pbzcyrgryl frevbhf. Ba frpbaq gubhtug, V pbhyq qb gung ergebnpgviryl nf jryy.

Unccl arj lrne, YrffJebat! Guvf lrne, znl nyy bs hf or yrff jebat guna jr jrer ynfg lrne!

C.F. V'q or tengrshy sbe ercyl pbzzragf nybat gur yvarf bs, fnl, "Arire! Pyrneyl lbh ner rvgure znq be -- vs guvf cerqvpgvba pbzrf gehr -- n travhf!" Gunaxf va nqinapr.

Most of the predictions in this thread will turn out to have been overconfident

The above prediction will turn out to have been overconfident.

All three predictions in this post will turn out to have been overconfident.

:p

These are already on PredictionBook:

Eliezer Yudkowsky will follow Kevin’s diet for at least three months in the next two years. PB link, link to diet.

If Eliezer Yudkowsky decides to follow Kevin’s diet for at least three months in the next two years, his end weight after three months will be at least ten pounds (~4.5 kg) lighter than his starting weight. PB link.

A trustworhy friend has told me that there are two HPMOR chapters in the pipeline-- I could check the website, which is where he says he got the information, but what would be the fun in that?

There will be a US election. People will say they're sick of politics. One of the candidates will win.

The year report for the 2012 of the SIAI will be approximately the same as for the 2011. No essentially new things mentioned. Confidence 0.9.

At least one event as important as Watson Jeopardy! will be announced by IBM or some other organization. Confidence 0.8.

The U.S. Presidential candidate who spends the most money on his campaign will be elected.

World politics:

One or more new 'revolutions' (described as such by international media) will take place. 80% - At least one of which will be in Sub-Saharan Africa: 60%

Fidel Castro will die, or has already died and it will be officially confirmed 90%.

Open hostilities will take place between Iran and another country 60%.

Vladimir Putin will become president of Russia: 95% - There will be significant rioting with civilian injuries in Russia: 70% - There will be substansive political change in Russia 5%.

UK politics

The coalition government will break up 10%. - One of the 3 major parties will change leader 50%.

Some random personal predictions as I find the exercise interesting:

I will have sexual interactions with one or more women. 95% [Here defining sexual interactions as something that would require an 18 certificate to display in a film, and women by their own self definition). - I will have an 'official' relationship 25% (defined as one where we both alter our facebook statuses to 'in a relationship'.) - I will have sexual relations with one or more men 1% (the prospect doesn't currently appeal to me, but given my observations of sexual preference variability in others I can't rule it out).

I will graduate university this summer. 90% - Assuming I graduate it will be with a grade of 2:1. 80% 1st 10% Other 10%

I will miss one or more deadlines due to ongoing depression and anxiety issues 80% (I would like to say lower, but given past results that seems unlikely from an outside view. )

I will break at at least one debating competition. 70%. (Break meaning entering semi finals or final depending on size of competition). I will win a Debating competition 20%.

I will attend the European debating championships. 80%. Assuming the preceding: I will be in the top half of speaker scores 95%. Top 100 60%. Top 50 10%. Break 25%.

Travel outisde UK 99%. (I intend to book tickets in the next week), - Travel outside EU 50% (no current plans but most of yea is unplanned and I wish to.

LW

This post will have positive Karma 90%. - Karma >5 50%. - Karma >10 10%.

Okay, this seems like nothing could possibly go wrong just from my making some educated guesses, right?

1. 90%: the probabilities in this post are poorly calibrated, but things I think are likely will probably happen, and the converse is also true.

2. 10%: I'll learn to play Magic: the Gathering by 2013.

3. .1%: Singularity occurs before January 1, 2013.

4. 80%: Occupy protests do not end before May.

5. 90%: Judge Rotenberg Center continues torturing children at least through December 31, 2012.

6. 99% There will be at least one update to Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality this year.

7. 99% The Winds of Winter will not be released this year.

8. 85% George R. R. Martin will not die this year.

I am deeply interested in predictions regarding the progress of the charter city projects in Honduras, though I can't make any meaningful predictions on the topic myself.

Ok, let's join the party! Personal:

I will manage to rent my grandparent's house before the end of the year 40% I will manage to sell my grandparent's house before the end of the year 15% (Neither of the two happens 45%)

My girlfriend will come to live with me in my flat before the end of the year: 60%

I will manage to stabilize my weight between 70 and 73 kilos: 50%

I will buy more than 50 musical records on physical support (cd / vinyl) 70%

I will finally do a complete inventory of my music collection 30%

In case the previous happens, I will turn out to own more than 1000 albums 80%

I will end up fighting with my very fervent and freshly converted friend because of a joke about religion I made 20%

Sport

Roger Federer will win at least one grand slam tournament or the olympic gold medal 70%

No Italian football team will reach the semifinals of the Europa League or the Champions League 75%

Italy will win between 8 and 12 gold medal at the summer olympics games 80%

(Italian) politics, economy and society

There will be an election round in 2012 80%

Neither of the two biggest parties will get more than 30% of the preferences if the previous happens 70%

Italy won't default 95%

Price of gas will reach a peak greater than 2.00 € / liter 40%

The Catholic Church will still be exempted from the payment of the IMU (tax on the property of buildings) 95%

Miscellaneous

ATLAS and CMS will announce the discovery of the Higgs Boson 95%

No other new particles will be discovered (5 sigma significance) in 2012 60%

HPMOR won't be finished before the end of the year 60%

The mean temperature in Europe during July will be higher than the corresponding one in 2011 75%

Added some predictions:

1) 75%: On Jan 1, 2013, there will be 3 or fewer movies from 2011 on imdb’s top 250. (down from current 6) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top (http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5059)

2) 50%: On Jan 1, 2013, there will be seven or more movies from 2012 on imdb’s top 250. http://www.imdb.com/chart/top (http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5060)

3) 85%: The Shawshank Redemption will be #1 on imdb’s top 250 on Jan 1, 2013. (it is currently #1) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top (http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5061)

4) 60%: 12 Angry Men will be #5 or higher on imdb’s top 250 on Jan 1, 2013. (it is currently #6) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top (http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5062)

5) 10%: By Jan 1, 2013, there will be a way to directly input your estimated probability distribution across a range of different possible quantities when making a prediction on PB. (http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5063)

6) 50%: At least three papers with the word “connectomics” in their title or abstract will be published in Nature in 2012. (http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5064)

By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.

40%

Some 2012-specific stuff. It's all a bit fluff-y, but unfortunately in all the high-status areas I either won't do better than the base rate or have just made it past Mount Stupid and really don't feel like making predictions just yet. I'm hoping for others to post way-too-confident comments I can make cynical predictions about. Anyway:

• I still predict that Luke won't finish his metaethics sequence in 2012, especially now that the scope has widened.

• The fifth book of the "A Song of Ice and Fire" series actually came out (contrary to expectations) and GRRM is still alive, so I'm reasonably confident he won't die in 2012 either. I'm a little less sure if the TV show will actually cover all the books, but still somewhat optimistic.

• Half-Life 3 won't come out. Not sure what will happen to EP3, but seems more likely than not it won't get released either. Still thinking.

• Reddit: I'm less confident now we'll get an epic "told you so!" conclusion to the birth certificate threads after the whole birdie/cheese disaster. My trust in Reddit's ability to deliver in 2012 is way down.

• And of course: the world doesn't end on 12/21, probably, but I'm still giving it a 1% shot. I'm not sure if my sanity's slipping again, but "we are in a supervised simulation" still seems not too implausible (say, 0.01% <= p <= 20%).

I'm also practicing my "that was a totally lame twist and I called it ages ago" skills. (Obviously spoilers behind links, but not in this comment.)

I've done fairly well with Dexter's 6th season (three notable predictions) and have added some about season 7, but as I intentionally only follow the series itself, most serious predictions will have to wait for the first episode (except for the important one).

(Unfortunately I don't watch any "lame twist" shows besides Dexter right now, but I'm checking if I missed some.)

I will place in the top 5 for the Quantified Health Prize (either by myself or as part of a team), conditional on me submitting an entry that took me at least 40 hours of work: 95%

All predictions are for 2012.

Homestuck:

Andrew Hussie releases at least one flash lasting longer than 10 minutes: 65%

Karkat, Terezi, John, Dave, Rose and Jade will not be permanently removed from story (Being killed off but returning as a ghost/sprite/whatever doesn't count as being permanently removed; being killed off and spending eternity in a dream-bubble and having no further contribution to the story does): 80%

The hints that Betty Crocker/Her Imperious Condesencion is running post-scratch Desrse will prove to be misdirection on Hussie's part: 20%

Baseball:

The San Francisco Giants will have a winning season. 80%

The Giants will make the postseason (either as NL West Champions or as a Wildcard team): 50%

Pablo Sandoval will hit at least 25 home runs: 80%

Ryan Braun will successfully appeal his suspension: 45%

Albert Pujols will finish the season with a batting average below .300: 65%

P(Eliezer Yudkowsky will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ) = 0.20

Note: I increased my probability estimate since I originally made the prediction based on the fact that I just made a comment in a high-profile thread in the Main section discussing it.

A list of my predictions for 2012 can be found here. They are far too numerous to bother listing them in this thread.

1. Mitt Romney wins the Republican nomination (90%.)
2. More than 1000 US troops (including soldiers, marines, sailors, and airmen) remain in Israel for at least 6 months after the ongoing joint military exercises are over. (75%)
3. Ron Paul fails to win any states in the Republican primary. (75% probability).
4. No 3rd party candidate gains 5% of the popular vote for president. (90%)
5. US official unemployment rate is still above 7% in December 2012. (75%)
6. Israel or the United States make no overt attack against Iran. (Covert drone strikes, missile strikes, or assassinations wouldn't count.) (85%)
7. United States ceases to be a net fuel importer for 2012. (60%)

I am also predicting, that:

1 - neutrinos will be faster than light in 2012 (60% confidence)

2 - Higgs boson will NOT be seen in 2012 (85% confidence)

kiba starts us off with two Bitcoin predictions:

1. “one of the top 5 biggest bitcoin sites will be hacked and the hacker will profit by gaining lots of bitcoins” (I gave 50%)
2. Bitcoin/USD prices: “best case, 10 bucks. Worst case, 5 bucks.” (30%)

If anyone wants a laugh, the BBC has a list of user-submitted predictions for 2112. The most amusing part is not the predictions themselves, but the "likelihood" the article gives them.

For anyone who wants to make predictions that you don't want to make public, I just sent a letter to my future self on FutureMe.org, and you might want to consider doing the same.

SOPA will not pass congress. 75%

I quite like prediction that Sean Carrol made on his blog. So much so, I will adopt them in full. They are, after all, based on Science!

1. Freely-falling objects will accelerate toward the ground at an approximately constant rate, up to corrections due to air resistance.

2. Of all the Radium-226 nuclei on the Earth today, 0.04% will decay by the end of the year.

3. A line drawn between any planet (or even dwarf planet) and the Sun will sweep out equal areas in equal times.

4. Hurricanes in the Northern hemisphere will rotate counterclockwise as seen from above.

5. The pressure of a gas squeezed in a piston will rise inversely with the change in volume.

6. Electric charges in motion will give rise to magnetic fields.

7. The energy of an object at rest whose mass decreases will also decrease, by the change in mass times the speed of light squared.

8. The content of the world’s genomes will gradually evolve in ways determined by fitness in a given environment, sexual selection, and random chance.

9. The entropy of closed systems will increase.

10. People will do many stupid things, and some surprisingly smart ones.

Ron Paul runs as an Independent or third party. 20% Obama reelected. 60% IF Obama reelected, white male goes on a shooting spree citing political climate as motivation. (Ignore this prediction if Obama not reelected.) 10% The men's rights movement is mentioned in a Time or Newsweek article. 5% Dark Knight Rises gets 50-85% on Rotten Tomatoes. (Good, but not as good as Dark Knight) 60% New Michael Jackson song released posthumously. 20% Chris Brown arrested on new domestic violence charges. 20%

Do you need to have an actual probability? Do you have to bet anything to post predictions? Do you have to be on PredictionBook.com?

Because this seems cool, but I'm not sure...?

gwern, a nitpick on "So I applied this heuristic: what does the existence of an 130 year-old in 2025 imply about people in 2011? Well, if someone is 130 in 2025, then that implies that are now 116 years old (130-(2025-2011)). Then I looked up the oldest person in the world: Besse Cooper, aged 115 years old."

It's quite plausible that records will turn up within the next 13 years to show that someone is 116 years old now.

Obama will win in November 2012.

P=~.9 (that is ninety percent!)

my predictions: at the end of the year 2012

self (*)

• I'll log more than 1460 work hours in my logging tool for the year:70%

• I can accurately describe myself as a hard worker. 60%

• I weight below 100kg (220 pound) end of year: 30%

• I'll get the big scale project one of my teams was applying for: 20%

• I'll severely improve in the art that shall not be named: 60%

• I finish university:60%

• I still am involved in my goal club: 75%

• I will have experienced credit card fraud: 5%

• I will still follow my current diet regime (no alcohol, reduced sugar, no cola): 90%

• I'll start a business project from my backlog: 40%

• I'll still use NEO and F.LUX: 98 %

• I'll revisit and score this prediction in the first week of 2013: 95%

• I'll rejoin Toastmasters: 70%

(*) predicting self related things is a bit weird, since I could influence it based on the amount I bet on it

LW

• I'll gain a new super important insights: 10%

• There are 10 or more MOR updates:97%

• They will be really awesome:60%

world:

• the EURO will still exist: 95%

• there will be steps undertaken to remove the EURO: 7%

• Greece got another bailout: 30%

• the GRG Table E will have less than 100 cases over the whole year: 80% (this include retroactively validated entries)

• the current 4 entries with an age over 114 will all be dead:65%

• and for calender mystics: the number of cases born <1.1.1900 will drop below 10: 70%

• the world will not end in 2012: 99,99999%

• people will find new scary date in the future: 87%

• the US or GB will take steps to increase metrification:3%

Germany:

• the FDP (german liberal/libertarians) will be gone: 5%

• the FDP will become unimportant:60%

• Germany will have a new president: 70%

trueisms:

• some major catastrophe happens in the world:95%

• a major political scandal: 99%

• earthquakes in Japan: 100%

• Obama wins:60%

• if Ron Paul wins, he will not succeed in cutting spending:80%

• people will complain, but actually be fine:90%

• I will have forgotten to write in some prediction I thought about during the last week:90%

Methods of Rationality updates - will there be any?

Yes. But not enough to make it feel like the story is moving towards a conclusion.

medical advances

They will be incremental, enough so that very, very few people will notice any practical impact on their lives. Some advances, however, will be accompanied by a great deal of hype. Evidence will emerge that some treatments which we think work now do not in fact work.

signing up for cryonics?

I will continue to believe cryonics is something I would sign up for if I had money to spare, but will also continue to feel too poor to have money to spare.

the future of AGI

This isn't really about AGI, but I expect to be amazed by at least one cool new application of computing that vaguely resembles human intelligence.

If the Indianapolis Colts draft Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning will not play in another NFL sanctioned game. 75%

I guess I might as well roll the dice. I'm just going to throw out predictions, not give percent probabilities, because I'm not entirely certain where I'd pull the numbers out of (besides the usual place, heh).

• SOPA will pass, in the first quarter of the year, in its current form or something very much like it.
• The public outcry about SOPA will die down to negligible levels by the end of the year (say, the second half of December 2012).
• Armed hostilities between Israel and its neighbours in the Middle East will continue throughout the year, with intervals of peace (if any) lasting no longer than 3 months.
• A new chapter of HP:MoR, which would be more than two pages in length, will be posted
• Fewer than four such new chapters will be posted.
• At least one natural disaster, such as a major flood, hurricane, earthquake, or forest fire, will occur somewhere in the world
• However, no extinction-level events will occur
• Friendly AI will not be developed, and
• The Singularity will not happen
• 50% or more of the predictions on this thread, including mine, will turn out to be wrong.

There will be at least one believable claim that methane clathrates are being released, rendering climate treaties somewhat irrelevant: 30%

One or more countries will leave the EU monetary union: 50%

The birthrate in September 2013 will be higher than in September 2012.

The Super Bowl will not be Packers over Patriots in February 2012.

P=~.8 (80%)

Off the shelf HUD like computer (wearable display) comes out - 30%

Made by Google - 50%

Made by Apple - 40%

Other - 10 %

I'm standing by my 2011 prediction:

Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%

I could probably nudge probabilities one way or another if I checked extra year's worth of information, but since I didn't I have no idea which way it will go.

I predict that in 2012:

• The Republicans will nominate someone for President whose voting record has been to increase spending (that is, someone other than Ron Paul and Gary Johnson). As a result, the "Tea Party" vote will split itself between the Republican and Libertarian nominees, and President Obama will be reelected.

• Congress will remain split close to 50-50 -- close enough that neither party will have a veto- or filibuster-proof majority in both houses. However, the most extreme members of both parties will be successfully defeated by targeted campaigns, thus toning down some of the rhetoric if not the feelings that underlie it.

• The Euro will fall apart, but the EU as a whole will not.

• Banks in both Europe and America will continue to successfully resist demands that their balance sheets reflect the worthlessness of large parts of their asset totals (mortgages here, government bonds in EU countries), because that would force governments to shut them down as insolvent and pay out huge amounts in insurance claims.

• As a corollary, foreclosure activity will continue to be very slow, and government will continue to grant various kinds of relief to homeowners trying to forestall it. Result: there will be few or no housing starts in the US, and in fact, we will probably see a new federal program to buy up and demolish many of the "surplus" houses the banks are now holding.

• The Supreme Court will uphold ObamaCare. Meanwhile, Congress will pass a half-baked "repeal" bill which leaves intact enough of the unsustainable parts of ObamaCare (especially the requirement that insurers accept anyone, regardless of pre-existing conditions) that the private health-insurance industry will be entirely or mostly destroyed.

• There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs. The US will send aid but will not directly engage Israel's enemies. Japan will join in on Israel's side after the radicals sink oil tankers on the way to Japan. The Russians will sit this one out. Turkey may or may not take part, but if they do it will be against Israel.