Nested environments with many layers might get the AI confused about whether it has reached the real world yet or not. I don't really like this safety procedure, but it is one of the most promising ones. The bottom Russian doll never knows when the series ends, so it doesn't know when to turn treacherous.

This is an entire direction of research which deserves vastly more than a single throwaway line in one blog. There should be a whole thread just about this, then a proposal, then a research team on it.

The risk of course is the AI predicting that it's nested in this sort of environment and finding a way to signal to observers. Even if it's blind to the other layers it might try it just in case. What you want is to develop a way for the simulated world environment to detect a harmful intellgience explosion and send a single bit binary communication "out of the box" to indicate that it has occurred. Then you can shut it down and keep trying multiple instances until you get a success at this level of safety. I guess you can then slowly expand the amount of information that can come "out of the box" for safety. I have no idea how the detection process could be implemented, though... perhaps the difficultly of its implementation would defeat the usefulness of this idea?

EDIT> Interaction between the AGI and the detection mechanism could be problematic... it could predict its existence and find a way to deceive it?

A SENSIBLY DESIGNED MIND WOULD NOT RESOLVE ALL ORTHOGONAL METRICS INTO A SINGLE OBJECTIVE FUNCTION

Why? As you say, humans don't. But human minds are weird, overcomplicated, messy things shaped by natural selection. If you write a mind from scratch, while understanding what you're doing, there's no particular reason you can't just give it a single utility function and have that work well. It's one of the things that makes AIs different from naturally evolved minds.

Just to go a bit further with Pinkner, as an exercise try for once to imagine a Nuturing AGI. What would it act like? How would it be designed?

I feel like there are malignant failure modes beyond the categories mentioned by Bostrom. Perhaps it would be sensible to try to break down the topic systematically. Here's one attempt.

1. Design by fools: the AI does what you ask, but you asked for something clearly unfriendly.

2. Perverse instantiation & infrastructure profusion: the AI does what you ask, but what you ask turns out to be most satisfiable in unforeseen destructive ways, such as redirecting most resources to its infrastructure at our expense.

3. Partial perverse instantiation & mind crime: the AI does what you ask, which includes both friendly behavior and unfriendly behavior, such as badly treating simulations that have moral status in order to figure out how to treat you well.

4. Partial instantiation: though the total of what you ask seems friendly, some of what you ask is impossible, the AI does the rest, and the result is imbalanced to an unfriendly degree.

5. Value drift: changes occur to the AIs code such that it does not do what you ask.

It doesn't seem to me that mind crime is a malignant failure mode in the sense that Bostrom defines it: it doesn't stop actual humans from doing their human things, and it seems that it could easily happen twice.

Of course, there are two kinds of perversity.

Perversity is "a deliberate desire to behave in an unreasonable or unacceptable way; contrariness."

Fictional genies seek out ways to trick the requester on purpose, just to prove a point about rash wishes. The other kind of perverse agent doesn't act contrarily for the sake of being contrary. They act exactly to achieve the goal and nothing else; it's just that they go against implicit goals as a side effect.

Any level of perverse instantiation in a sufficiently powerful AI is likely to lead to total UFAI; i.e. a full existential catastrophe. Either you get the AI design right so that it doesn't wirehead itself - or others, against their will - or you don't. I don't think there's much middle ground.

OTOH, the relevance of Mind Crime really depends on the volume. The FriendlyAICriticalFailureTable has this instance:

22: The AI, unknown to the programmers, had qualia during its entire childhood, and what the programmers thought of as simple negative feedback corresponded to the qualia of unbearable, unmeliorated suffering. All agents simulated by the AI in its imagination existed as real people (albeit simple ones) with their own qualia, and died when the AI stopped imagining them. The number of agents fleetingly imagined by the AI in its search for social understanding exceeds by a factor of a thousand the total number of humans who have ever lived. Aside from that, everything worked fine.

This scenario always struck me as a (qualified) FAI success. There's a cost - and it's large in absolute terms - but the benefits will outweigh it by a huge factor, and indeed by enough orders of magnitude that even a slight increase in the probability of getting pre-empted by a UFAI may be too expensive a price to pay for fixing this kind of bug.

So cases like this - where it only happens until the AI matures sufficiently and then becomes able see that its values make this a bad idea, and stops doing it - aren't as bad as an actual FAI failure.

Of course, if it's an actual problem with the AI's value content, which causes the AI to keep on doing this kind of thing throughout its existence, that may well outweigh any good it ever does. The total cost in this case becomes hard to predict, depending crucially on just how much resources the AI spends on these simulations, and how nasty they are on average.

If - we approach condition C of the simulation argument, that is if there are many more simulated beings than apparently real ones - then - We should Increase our credence accordingly in that we are simulated. If 63 billion simulated humans and 7 billion apparently real ones exist, we have - via anthropic reasoning - a 90% probability of being simulated. If we then don't care about mind crime, we would be 90% likely to be judging beings in our reference class to be morally unworthy.

I'll leave these two half-baked ideas here in case they're somehow useful:

DO UNTIL - Construct an AI to perform its utility function until an undesirable failsafe condition is met. (Somehow) make the utility function not take the failsafe into account when calculating utility (can it be made blind to the failsafe somehow? Force the utility function to exclude their existence? Make lack of knowledge about failsafes part of the utility function?) Failsafes could be every undesirable outcome we can think of, such as human death rate exceeds X, biomass reduction, quantified human thoughts declines by X, mammalian species extictions, quantified human suffering exceeds X, or whatever. One problem is how to objectively attribute these triggers causally to the AI (what if another event occurs and shuts down the AI which we now rely on).

Energy limit - Limit the AIs activities (through its own utility function?) through an unambiguous quantifiable resource - matter moved around or energy expended. The energy expended would (somehow) include all activity under its control. Alternatively this could be a rate rather than a limit, but I think this would be more likely to go wrong. The idea would be to let the AGI go foom, but not let it have energy for other stuff like a paperclip universe. I am not sure about this idea achieving all that much safety, but here it is.

I don't know if an intelligence explosion will truely be possible, but plenty of people smarter than I seem to think so... good luck in this field of work!

Constraining it by determining how many cycles the AI can use to process how to go about making paper clips, plus some spacial restriction (don't touch anything outside this area) plus some amount of energy to be spent restriction (use up to X energy to create 10 paperclips) would help. Allowing for levels of uncertainty such as 89 to 95% certain that something is the case would help.

However very similar suggestions are dealt with at length by Bostrom, who concludes that it would still be extremely difficult to constrain the AI.

Yes. "Make 10 paperclips and then do nothing, without killing people or otherwise disturbing or destroying the world, or in any way preventing it from going on as usual."

There is simply no way to give this a perverse instantiation; any perverse instantiation would prevent the world from going on as usual. If the AI cannot correctly understand "without killing... disturbing or destroying.. preventing it from going on as usual", then there is no reason to think it can correctly understand "make 10 paperclips."

I realize that in reality an AI's original goals are not specified in English. But if you know how to specify "make 10 paperclips", whether in English or not, you should know how to specify the rest of this.

Pinker: AI is being conceived as Alpha Males with high testosterone.

Omohundro: Alpha Males need resources to increase their reproductive potential. Any system with goals would do well to obtain more resources.

Pinker: Then why don't we conceive of AI's as females who have no such war instinct.

Omohundro: Females are satisficers, not optimizers, and even satisficers sometimes need more resources. The more powerful a woman is, in all domains, the most likely her goals are to be satisfied. We have bounded interests that have decreasing marginal returns upon acquiring resources. But there is no reason to think AI's would have.

Pinker: The data shows that fear of world doom and apocalypse at time T1 doesn't correlate with catastrophe at time T2.

Omohundro: This is false for any extinction scenario (where no data is available for anthropic reasons). Furthermore genetic beings, RNA based beings, and even memes or memeplexes are an existential proof that systems that would benefit from replicating tend to acquire resources over time, even when they are stupid. AI would have the same incentives, plus enormous intelligence on it's side.

Pinker: Violence has declined. Whistleblowing and signs of the end of the world are more common now because there are always enough violent acts to fill a newspaper... not because we are approaching doom.

Omohundro: Basic AI drives are a qualitatively different shift in why we would be doomed, they are not amenable to historical scrutiny because they were never active in a general intelligence before.

Pinker: There may be some probability that AI will figure out some basic AI drives and be malignant, but the data doesn't point to us worrying about this being the best allocation of resources. It is a leap of faith to think otherwise.

Omohundro: Faith based on arguments from theoretical understanding of cognitive processes, optimizing processes, game theory, social science, etc.... Also on expected value calculations.

Pinker: Still a leap of faith.

(Some of the above views were expressed by Pinker in his books and interviews, but don't hold either of them accountable for my models of what they think).

Testosterone isn't a good explanation for why humans accidentally make other species extinct.

Pinker has decent arguments for declining violence and for expecting people to overestimate some risks. That isn't enough to imply we shouldn't worry.

Pinker's model of war says the expected number of deaths is unbounded, due to small chances of really bad wars. His animal rights thoughts suggest AIs will respect other species more than humans do, but "more than human" isn't enough to imply no extinctions.

What idiot is going to give an AGI a goal which completely disrespects human property rights from the moment it is built?

It would be someone with higher values than that, and this does not require any idiocy. There are many things wrong with the property allocation in this world, and they'll likely get exaggerated in the presence of higher technology. You'd need a very specific kind of humility to refuse to step over that boundary in particular.

If it has goals which were not possible to achieve once turned off, then it would respect property rights for a very long time as an instrumental goal.

Not necessarily "a very long time" on human timescales. It may respect these laws for a large part of its development, and then strike once it has amassed sufficient capability to have a good chance at overpowering human resistance (which may happen quite quickly in a fast takeoff scenario). See Chapter 6, "An AI takeover scenario".

What idiot is going to give an AGI a goal which completely disrespects human property rights from the moment it is built?

A government :-P

Wouldn't most AGI goals disregard property rights unless it was explicitly built in? And if it was built in, wouldn't an AGI just create a situation (eg. progressive blackmail or deception or something) where we wanted to sell it the universe for a dollar?

Because if you don't, someone else will.

Totally agree, and I wish this opinion was voiced more on LW rather than the emphasis on trying to make a friendly self improving AI. For this to make sense though I think the human race needs to become a singleton, although perhaps that is what Google's acquisitions and massive government surveillance is already doing.