Credence polls for 26 claims from the 2019 Review

post by jacobjacob · 2021-01-09T07:13:24.166Z · LW · GW · 2 comments

Contents

  Book Review: The Secret of Our Success
    If you want to hide other user's predictions until you've made your own, here's how to do that:
  Make More Land
    Making more land out of the about 50mi^2 shallow water in the San Francisco Bay, South of the Dumbarton Bridge, would... 
  Why Wasn't Science Invented in China? 
  The Strategy-Stealing Assumption
  Becoming the Pareto-best in the World
  The Hard Work of Translation
  The Forces of Blandness and the Disagreeable Majority
  Bioinfohazards
  Two explanations for variation in human abilities
  Reframing Impact
None
2 comments

This post is a whirlwind tour of claims made in the LessWrong 2019 Review. In some cases, the claim is literally quoted from the post. In others, I have tried operationalising it into something more falsifiable. For example:

Book Review: The Secret of Our Success [LW · GW]

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/itSayrbzc)

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/5SRTLX3p_)

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/VMv-KjR87)

 

Overall, treat the claims in this post more like polls, and less like the full-blown forecasting questions you'd find on Metaculus or PredictIt. (The latter have extremely high bars for crisp definitions.) They point in a direction, but don't completely pin it down. 

Overall, this is an experiment. I'm trying to find interesting ways for people to relate to the Review. 

Maybe speeding through these questions gets you thinking good thoughts, that you can then turn into full-blown reviews? Maybe others' answers allow you to find a discussion partner who disagrees on a core question? Maybe the data will be useful in the voting phase? 

We'll see!

Feel free to leave a comment about how you found the experience, if you want. 

If you want to discuss the questions with others over a call, you can do so during the Review forecasting sessions [LW · GW] we're organising this weekend (January 9-10). 

 

If you want to hide other user's predictions until you've made your own, here's how to do that:

Make More Land [LW · GW]

Making more land out of the about 50mi^2 shallow water in the San Francisco Bay, South of the Dumbarton Bridge, would... 

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/KkqpSr5rW)

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/qzzNzEfa9)

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/csYlcNdhZ)

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/RwtAoMlnP)

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/xGIZipvb-)

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/zAtqSgbnS)

 

Why Wasn't Science Invented in China?  [LW · GW]

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/YP6-jqCeJ)

 

The Strategy-Stealing Assumption [LW · GW]

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/4JOKn_4F5)

 

Becoming the Pareto-best in the World [LW · GW]

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/2b3PzqXn9)

 

The Hard Work of Translation [LW · GW]

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/CxOLziCla)

 

The Forces of Blandness and the Disagreeable Majority [LW · GW]

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/hYdC56WBA)

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/WFD8n_LTV)

 

Bioinfohazards [LW · GW]

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/rAIrguWga)

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/1wcsgt6RS)

 

Two explanations for variation in human abilities [LW · GW]

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/7vAEm5HDV)

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/MwBCcDkHS)

 

Reframing Impact [? · GW]

These questions are quite technical, and might be hard to answer if you're unfamiliar with the terminology used in TurnTrout's sequence on Impact Measures [? · GW].

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/7SoL5DPRf)

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/AevXOS1Rj)

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/javyyEd8C)

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/iYT69bLl9)

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/GFGG5plOQ)

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/8Rr-YFSWi)

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/GFurWKpJn)

 

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(Note that when you answer questions in this summary post, and it will automatically update the prediction questions that I have linked in comments on each individual post. The distributions will later be visible when users are voting to rank the posts.)

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