COVID-19 Contact tracing efforts

US Efforts:

Covid Watch

https://www.covid-watch.org/

Private Kit, Safe Paths

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615372/coronavirus-infection-tests-app-pandemic-location-privacy/

http://safepaths.mit.edu/

South Korea’s Tracking Effort

Their app

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615329/coronavirus-south-korea-smartphone-app-quarantine/

SMS messages about cases locations, etc.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00740-y

Other Articles

Wired’s reporting on S Korea and China’s use of apps
https://www.wired.com/story/phones-track-spread-covid19-good-idea/]

Open letter asking tech companies to implement opt-in contact tracing:

https://stop-covid.tech/

Israeli intelligence efforts to track people and use that data for epidemiological purposes

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/world/middleeast/israel-coronavirus-cellphone-tracking.html

Our mixed-motive conflict with social media apps

Modern computers are trash. I'm ready for better interfaces and better AI capabilities that are more aligned with our interests.

I'm going to talk about my phone as a "computer" rather than a collection of (mostly social media) apps, because the thing I want to interface is the computer, not just the apps.

Because that's exactly part of the problem. I don't have enough control over how I interact with the apps. The apps attempt to exert control over my attention. In some ways this is okay -- I do want apps to be high quality and useful, and I want my attention to be drawn to high quality useful things. However, the apps try to draw my attention using short term reward cycles that I often do not endorse upon reflection. This is a kind of superstimulus that we didn't evolve to handle. I want my phone's software to help me with this. I want this to be an Operating System feature and not an app feature, because I don't trust the apps. I have a mixed-motive conflict with the apps, and I want more leverage.

A mixed-motive conflict is one where many interests align but some do not. The name comes from Thomas Schelling's work, The Strategy of Conflict, and can be applied in many domains: Nuclear game theory, advertising, and of course social media apps.

Now, in an ideal world I shouldn't have to turn to an OS to give me greater control over the content apps provide me with. Ideally, the incentives would be aligned between me, the customer, and the app's designers and maintainers. If this were the case, I posit Facebook would look very different. There would be far more controls that would allow me to select the things I want to see that I endorse as good, rather than just the ones that keep me maximally engaged. (I know Facebook has changed their algorithms to optimize factors other than screen time, but I'm including this in the sense of 'engaged').

There really should be a data layer which Facebook presents via an API that my OS can control, allowing me to tweak things like the feed, events I see, etc. Facebook would prefer to control the interface, both because it's easier for them to develop and because it's more effective at keeping me engaged. Except, it may not be.

I pledge to look for social media platforms that allow me greater control over my own data. Initially, this may be limited to in-app control over my feed. But in the long term, I want an OS that will interface with my social data feeds and give me options for control. I am aware that browser plugins exist to assist with this, but they rely on hacks that prevent a smooth experience, and Facebook deliberately prevents them from providing many features. I pledge to look for social media companies whose incentives align closer with my own.

I'm not inherently anti-Facebook. If Facebook decides to give me far more control over my social data and interactions, I would consider paying for this service. However, I'm not optimistic about these prospects.

I'm not pledging to abandon Facebook in favor of Mastodon or equivalent, or even to become an active Mastodon user. My commitment is of a longer term nature. The social media apps are social. They require network effects to be useful. They're about building communities. I want to let my community know that I'm unhappy with the equilibrium we find ourselves and want something better. Not just with Facebook, but the whole ecosystem of OSes and phones. The future of AI should be an enriching and enabling one, and that requires navigating the myriad challenges of mixed-motive conflicts and organizing together with our social networks to use the bargaining power we possess.

I think the AI situation is pretty dire right now.  And at the same time, I feel pretty motivated to pull together and go out there and fight for a good world / galaxy / universe.

Nate Soares has a great post called "detach the grim-o-meter", where he recommends not feeling obligated to feel more grim when you realize world is in deep trouble.

It turns out feeling grim isn't a very useful response, because your grim-o-meter is a tool evolved for you to use to respond to things being harder *in your local environment* rather than the global state of things.

So what do you do when you find yourself learning the world is in a dire state? I find that a thing that helps me is finding stories that match the mood of what I'm trying to do, like Andy Weir's The Martian.

You're trapped in a dire situation and you're probably going to die, but perhaps if you think carefully about your situation, apply your best reasoning and engineering skills, you might grow some potatoes, ducktape a few things together, and use your limited tools to escape an extremely tricky situation.

In real life the lone astronaut trapped on Mars doesn't usually make it. I'm not saying to make up fanciful stories that aren't justified by the evidence. I'm saying, be that stubborn bastard that *refuses to die* until you've tried every last line of effort.

I see this as one of the great virtues of humanity. We have a fighting spirit. We are capable of charging a line of enemy swords and spears, running through machine gun fire and artillery even though it terrifies us.

No one gets to tell you how to feel about this situation. You can feel however you want. I'm telling you how I want to feel about this situation, and inviting you to join me if you like.

Because I'm not going to give up. Neither am I going to rush to foolhardy action that will make things worse. I'm going to try to carefully figure this out, like I was trapped on Mars with a very slim chance of survival and escape.

Perhaps you, like me, are relatively young and energetic. You haven't burnt out, and you're interested in figuring out creative solutions to the most difficult problems of our time. Well I say hell yes, let's do this thing. Let's actually try to figure it out. 🔥

Maybe there is a way to grow potatoes using our own shit. Maybe someone on earth will send a rescue mission our way. Lashing out in panic won't improve our changes, giving up won't help us survive. The best shot we have is careful thinking, pressing forward via the best paths we can find, stubbornly carrying on in the face of everything.

And unlike Mark Watney, we're not alone. When I find my grim-o-meter slipping back to tracking the dire situation, I look around me and see a bunch of brilliant people working to find solutions the best they can.

So welcome to the hackathon for the future of the lightcone, grab some snacks and get thinking. When you zoom in, you might find the problems are actually pretty cool.

Deep learning actually works, it's insane. But how does it work? What the hell is going on in those transformers and how does something as smart of ChatGPT emerge from that?? Do LLMs have inner optimizers? How do we find out?

And on that note, I've got some blog posts to write, so I'm going to get back to it. You're all invited to this future-lightcone-hackathon, can't wait to see what you come up with! 💡

This is a temporary short form, so I can link people to Scott Alexander's book review post. I'm putting it here because Substack is down, and I'll take it down / replace it with a Substack link once it's back up. (also it hasn't been archived by Waybackmachine yet, I checked)

The spice must flow.

Edit: It's back up, link: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-what-we-owe-the-future