rahulxyz's Shortform
post by rahulxyz · 2025-01-26T10:00:35.637Z · LW · GW · 7 commentsContents
7 comments
7 comments
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comment by rahulxyz · 2025-01-26T10:00:36.197Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Deepseek R1 could mean reduced VC investments into large LLM training runs. They claim to have done it with ~6M. If there’s a big risk of someone else coming out with a comparable model at 1/10th the cost, then there’s no moat in OpenAI in the long run. I don’t know how much the VC / investors buy the ASI as an end goal and even what the pitch would be. They’re probably looking at more prosaic things like moats and growth rates, and this may mean reduced appetite for further investment instead of more.
Replies from: Vladimir_Nesov, quetzal_rainbow↑ comment by Vladimir_Nesov · 2025-01-26T10:43:53.651Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
What can be done for $6 million, can be done even better with 6 million GPUs[1]. What can be done with 6 million GPUs, can't be done for $6 million. Giant training systems are the moat.
↑ comment by rahulxyz · 2025-01-27T21:42:38.062Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Yeah, in one sense that makes sense. But also, NVDA is down ~16% today.
Replies from: nathan-helm-burger↑ comment by Nathan Helm-Burger (nathan-helm-burger) · 2025-01-27T22:16:31.061Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
And is that correct? Do you expect that to last? My 2021 NVDA purchases still feeling pretty wise right now. :P
Replies from: rahulxyz↑ comment by rahulxyz · 2025-01-27T22:27:24.974Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Not sure if it's correct, I didn't actually short NVDA so all I can do is collect my bayes points. I did expect most investors to think at a first-level thinking as that was my immediate reaction on reading about DeepSeek's training cost. If models can be duplicated a few weeks / months after they're out for cheaper, then you don't have a moat (this is for most regular technologies. I'm not saying AI isn't different, just that most investors think of this like any other tech innovation)
↑ comment by Nathan Helm-Burger (nathan-helm-burger) · 2025-01-27T23:05:37.679Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
I am so out of touch with mindset of typical investors that I was taken completely by surprise to see NVDA drop. Thanks for the insight.
↑ comment by quetzal_rainbow · 2025-01-26T15:57:03.505Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
No.