Paul Crowley's Shortform

post by Paul Crowley (ciphergoth) · 2020-05-28T13:39:55.241Z · LW · GW · 8 comments


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comment by Paul Crowley (ciphergoth) · 2020-05-28T13:39:55.828Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

For the foreseeable future, it seems that anything I might try to say to my UK friends about anything to do with LW-style thinking is going to be met with "but Dominic Cummings". Three separate instances of this in just the last few days.

comment by Kaj_Sotala · 2020-05-29T05:20:44.437Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Can you give some examples of "LW-style thinking" that they now associate with Cummings?

comment by Paul Crowley (ciphergoth) · 2020-06-01T15:13:02.095Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

On Twitter I linked to this [LW · GW] saying

Basic skills of decision making under uncertainty have been sorely lacking in this crisis. Oxford University's Future of Humanity Institute is building up its Epidemic Forecasting project, and needs a project manager.


I'm honestly struggling with a polite response to this. Here in the UK, Dominic Cummings has tried a Less Wrong approach to policy making, and our death rate is terrible. This idea that a solution will somehow spring from left-field maverick thinking is actually lethal.
comment by toonalfrink · 2020-06-02T20:45:17.478Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Did Dominic Cummings in fact try a "Less Wrong approach" to policy making? If so, how did it fail, and how can we learn from it? (if not, ignore this)

comment by Kaj_Sotala · 2020-06-01T15:39:17.862Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Huh. Wow.

comment by Dagon · 2020-05-28T15:11:21.787Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Seems like a good discussion could be had about long-term predictions and how much evidence there is to be had in short-term political fluctuations. The Cummings silliness vs unprecedented immigration restrictions - which is likely to have impact 5 years from now?

comment by TAG · 2020-06-03T00:51:18.852Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

You mean the swine are judging ideas by how they work in practice?

comment by Paul Crowley (ciphergoth) · 2020-06-17T18:19:17.175Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

No sarcasm.