Luna First, But Not To Live There

I would like to take the complete opposite position and argue that self-sufficient space colonies will happen long before Earth reaps any benefits from industrial activities in outer space, if ever. The reason I believe this is that outer space activities won't be economically driven for a long time, because there is no profit to be made.

It is important to clarify what sort of propulsion technologies you are basing your analysis on. I subdivide propulsion technologies into 3 categories:

• Level 1: current non-reusable rockets; ~$10,000 per kg to LEO
• Level 2: reusable rockets, space planes; ~$100 per kg to LEO
• Level 3: space-elevators, orbital rings, fusion drive; <$1 per kg to LEO and beyond

With level 1 tech delta-v is absolutely crucial for any activity in outer space because every kg of fuel in LEO is worth its weight in gold. With level 2 tech, delta-v becomes a much less important consideration; there are plenty of equipment whose value exceeds $100 per kg, and the cost can be further reduced with dedicated tanker spacecrafts highly optimized for re-usability. Fuel itself is cheap, after all. And finally, with level 3 tech, delta-v becomes utterly trivial; simply climbing higher on a space-elevator can eject you straight out of the solar system.

We have been stuck on level 1 for half a century now, and there has been no outer space activities beyond a few space probes here and there. If we stay on this level, there is no reason to expect more activities in the future, either. If we ever reach level 3, setting up shop anywhere in the solar system will be just as easy as on Earth. So level 2 is the only scenario worth discussing with regard to colonization vs industrialization in my mind.

Currently, our best bet to reach level 2 by far is SpaceX, which was founded with the explicit goal of colonizing Mars. It is way ahead of the competition both in terms of currently operational re-usable rockets (having sucked up most of the global non-governmental launch market) and pushing re-usability tech further. It is in the process of becoming a space-based internet broadband provider which has the revenue potential dwarfing the satellite launch market, with no competition in sight. It is also a privately-held company and intentionally so, so that profit incentives don't get in the way of its mission.

Their road map is to lower launch cost enough such that private citizens, the government or Elon Musk himself (most likely a combination of the above) could fund a Mars homesteading campaign. Low enough that economic drives are unnecessary. I would like to hear why this plan is unrealistic.

One major advantage Mars has over the moon (regardless of colonization or industrialization) is the availability of carbon. The only fuel that can be produced in-situ on the moon is hydrogen, which is not ideal for re-usability due to its low boiling point and hydrogen embrittlement. There is good reason all next-gen re-usable rocket engines use methane as fuel.

But far more importantly, you have not argued why industrializing the moon is a good idea in the first place. I wholeheartedly agree with the idea that operations on Mars will never turn a profit for Earth, but that hardly supports your point. Putting factories on the moon might make (marginally) less losses than putting factories on Mars, but so what, there is always the option to stay home and make no loss.

This includes all sort of material processes (though, of course, gravity makes a great many things easier), and the lack of environmental concerns. 

If you want something like gravity you can easily get it by rotating your space station. Whether you want less or more then there is on earth space stations can easily get it. 

You can create your crystals in zero G and then fly them to a earth-like pseudo gravity to give them to mice for animal testing. 

When it comes to your wider argument I don't see an articulated reason for why we should go to the moon. You didn't lay out anything that space stations can't provide. 

I've long thought homesteading was an attractive idea. Free launch costs to anyone with a business plan. Heavily subsidized grub stakes: standard living quarters, food, raw materials, tools, etc. A core assumption is that we mudfeet will lack the motivation, experience, and insight to solve all the problems pre-emptively. Colonists will find problems and solutions we can't even dream off. Setting priorities must be left to those who will live with the consequences.

But here's the rub: mated pairs only, the ladies expected to bear their first child within, say, 18 months. And, key point: No return ticket. The Up and Out is your home for the rest of your life.

Expect a steep learning curve and heavy losses for the first two or three generations.

There’s also disagreement about the efficacy of using Luna as a refueling stop, so to speak, en route to the Red Planet. From an orbital mechanics standpoint, it’s not a slam-dunk idea, but the argument in practice depends heavily on the specific logistics. In-situ fuel production might just make such a configuration worth it.

I think it's pretty much a slam-dunk that refueling on the moon is a bad idea. Adding lots of complexity (thus failure points) and the cost of establishing the necessary infrastructure for what can be accomplished by a few re-fueling trips in LEO seems unnecessary, especially considering it's not even the right fuel. And if you're talking about expendable rockets, well, Robert Zubrin has done detailed analysis on why refueling on the moon is utterly counterproductive and Mars Direct is better. delta-v ≠ money saved.

While Mars is obviously the more attractive target for colonization, we are a very long way from building colonies on other celestial bodies, no matter how good of an idea it is.

Very much disagree on space colonies as hedge against human extinction. I could write a more detailed critique, but the bottom line is there is no x-risk severe enough to wipe out all (not merely 99.999%) humans on Earth but at the same time not severe enough to also wipe out all moon/Mars colonies.

The reason is very simple: space colonization is an unspeakably expensive proposition.

Not necessarily. Senate-run space program is definitely an unspeakably expensive proposition, though.

I have yet to think of an economic need which a self-sustaining population on Mars would fulfill, that innovative strategies could not fulfill on Earth. Farming food on Mars? We can do hydroponics here. Running out of room to house people? We’re nowhere near that kind of population density. New legal environments to test out social engineering concepts? Seasteads and charter cities are way safer and less expensive. Climate change? Just tax carbon and build nuclear power plants, sheesh.

Agreed, except the part about sea-steading. Staying home is even more safe and less expensive. Put in a less tongue-in-cheek way: The difficulty of reaching Mars is why a Mars colony has a chance to become an independent civilization in the first place. Sending supplies to Mars is so difficult that the colonists would be better off building up their own supply chains in the long term for anything but the most value-dense equipment like microprocessors. The same isn't true for a sea-stead; sure you could in theory build your own economy, but realistically you'll just end up importing everything because it's easy, become heavily reliant on the outside world and be independent in name only. You're also within reach of any tax-collecting naval power of the world.

No one will front the money to build Mars colonies until there’s an economic incentive to do so. I see no such economic incentive. I would love to be wrong about this, because Mars is the best colonization target by far. But I don’t think I am.

Depends on what amount you're talking about. If it's <$100 billion mere prestige would be enough incentive, otherwise Apollo could have never happened.

As the people of Earth demand an increasingly high standard of living and simultaneously a cleaner environment, I suspect that this may prove to be the ultimate driver of off-world industrialization. Again, though, speculation.

Very far-fetched argument. To relocate the vast amount of industry required to make a significant positive impact on the environment, you'd need to lower launch costs close to maritime shipping costs today. And at that point, supplying off-world colonies would be just as easy.

Critically, space industrialization is different from space colonization. Developing an off-world economy is a pre-requisite for seeing a large, permanent population above the atmosphere.

A dubious conclusion. Do you propose relocating entire supply chains off-world, or just small bits? If it's the former, it's no easier than founding a self-sufficient colony. If it's the latter, it's not worth it due to exorbitant transportation costs back and forth from Earth.

Governments may choose to pay for scientific missions to other planets; they will not front the costs of developing entire planets quite literally from the ground up. Whatever outputs space agencies may build, they will not be colonies.

colony ≠ terraforming

People won’t live there, the way that human populations have whenever establishing themselves in a new locality. There won’t be families and new businesses and the like, not for a long time.

Instead, we’re probably going to see many largely-automated operations, with minimal and possibly intermittent human presence.

I think you're seriously overestimating the capability of robots. Compare what the Apollo astronauts were able to do on the moon and what Mars rovers have done.

As we push towards human settlement in space, our focus should therefore be the development of new industries and new technologies to enable and motivate working above the atmosphere.

This sounds like a call to action, but if human settlement in space was profitable, it would happen anyway? Also, who's "we"?

One day, our species will span three worlds. That day remains very far away. Rather than fixate on terraforming dreams, we should chart a course carried by the currents of economic necessity. With the correct regulatory environment and technological investments, we can begin building sustainable off-world industries in a realistic timescale. Such industries will carry us to the planets in the pursuit of profit—a far more reliable motivator than any humanitarian spirit from politicians.

That, I suspect, is what the future of space travel is going to come down to. Do we pursue an incremental strategy that eventually carries us to the ends of the Solar System, or do we wallow on this one planet, fantasizing of an amazing future no one has any incentive to hand us? Are we going to fixate on self-sustained colonies and settle for nothing less, or shall we go to Luna first, but not to live there?

Again, colony ≠ terraforming, and again, curious to hear your thoughts on why Mars Direct/Elon Musk's plan won't pan out. In any case, whatever your vision for future human space exploration is exactly, the only thing that matters right now is lowering launch costs.

Another important benefit of our moon's closeness is the short ping. We still don't have an AGI we can send to industrialize other planets, but I do think we are at point where we can do remote controlled industry where humans don't have to be at the site but still need to monitor and manage everything. Even if it's not commercialized yet, the technological frontier is already there - think Boston Dynamics showcase robots with humans telling them what to do doing the work of human workers in a mostly automated modern factory.

If we do this on the moon, communication round trip is just a few seconds (between 2.4 and 2.7, but maybe we'll need to route it via some satellites so let's round it up to 3 seconds). Not instant feedback, but good enough to be effective. Mars, on the other hand, has a ping of between 6 and 44 minutes - which is much harder to work with.

Imagine a robot doing something wrong in a martian factory. The control center on Earth will see it after 3 minutes at best - and by that time the robot proceeded with its wrong actions, doing 3 minutes worth of damage. The humans send the command to stop - which arrives after 3 more minutes of damage. On the moon, on the other hand, that's only 3 seconds of damage (not counting the humans' reaction time) which is much better.

Space travel is largely impractical with current tech. There are technologies which would make space travel practical. So humans will stay on earth and research until we find those technologies.

Suppose that sooner or later we get supersmart AI. The AI will spread out at near light speed. whether or not we have a fledgling Mars colony by this point is largely irrelevant.

Could tourism become an economic engine of the space colonisation? For example, Moon has 6 times lower gravity and this allows new types of sport. Older people can jump again there!