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Comment by crl826 on Can preference falsification be reduced with Ring Signatures? · 2020-11-30T05:34:16.170Z · LW · GW

If you run an organization

 

That's the thing, this is all based on the assumption that the people running an organization want people to express themselves. 

That is a very poor assumption in a lot of organizations. Silence spirals gotta start somewhere.

Comment by crl826 on Can preference falsification be reduced with Ring Signatures? · 2020-11-29T22:12:50.785Z · LW · GW

Correct. Technology can only solve a problem people want solved. If people are being bullied into silence, the bullies aren't going to let this happen.  

Heck, they already have a way of silencing support for any new plan...

Comment by crl826 on Pain is not the unit of Effort · 2020-11-25T03:12:45.267Z · LW · GW

I like this.  A lot to chew on for me. Especially the "optimize for the appearance of suffering" part.

A corollary of this is that when things are too easy (low pain) they are "cheating", "don't count", or somehow "illegitimate".  I may have been making things too hard on myself for just that reason. 

Comment by crl826 on Using false but instrumentally rational beliefs for your career? · 2020-11-24T21:02:42.208Z · LW · GW

This post is about not having honest filters. Sounds like you disagree with that theory.

Which is fine, just explains where we are missing each other.

Comment by crl826 on Using false but instrumentally rational beliefs for your career? · 2020-11-24T05:52:39.903Z · LW · GW

Maybe. Believing that no girl wants you means you won't try with girls and it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. Believing every girl wants you means you will try and, even though you won't bat 1000, you're chances of success are literally infinitely higher.

 I'm not a basketball expert at all, but I don't think you can choose to avoid the defender so that seems like a different thing than what I was getting at. 

Comment by crl826 on Using false but instrumentally rational beliefs for your career? · 2020-11-24T01:54:04.130Z · LW · GW

I can tell you this is a thing in PUA community.  Believing that every girl wants you is incorrect, but more helpful than (also probably incorrect) belief that no girl wants you.

Comment by crl826 on What would a world of widespread statistical numeracy look like? · 2020-11-18T22:56:16.742Z · LW · GW

There are dumb teachers, fat dieticians, and doctors who smoke.

These answer seem to assume that people do dumb thing because they don't know they are dumb.  There is much contradictory evidence to that assumption.

Comment by crl826 on Writing to think · 2020-11-18T01:45:46.385Z · LW · GW

I don't know about formality, but Scott Young has frequently talks about the "Feynman technique" (writing summary as a way to learn) as a way to study.

Comment by crl826 on Writing to think · 2020-11-17T18:39:22.516Z · LW · GW

100% Agree.  

Similarly, I often force myself to write summaries of books I have read.  I often "feel" like I learned something even though I can't articulate what I learned or what I would do with that knowledge.  Summaries help ensure that I'm not just taking that feeling of learning something at face value.

Comment by crl826 on Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions. · 2020-11-09T21:24:47.984Z · LW · GW

Agreed.

I guess I didn't/don't think of that as a goal of prediction markets. 

The public gets value from the outputs of the market. One of the values of them is being able to get information from insiders who have info that they wouldn't have otherwise shared. Bad data is always a risk with or without prediction markets.

Comment by crl826 on Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions. · 2020-11-09T17:18:43.145Z · LW · GW

Seems like the PredictIt model of turning the questions into Yes/No questions where either side can bid up or down solves a lot of these. Or am I misunderstanding?

Comment by crl826 on Competitive Universal Basic Services? · 2020-11-09T17:16:11.337Z · LW · GW

Are there any examples of government switching from paying for a thing to demanding price go down and it saving money?

Comment by crl826 on Competitive Universal Basic Services? · 2020-11-09T17:14:37.199Z · LW · GW

Agreed that subsidizing things bids prices up.

I still think vouchers for specific items feels qualitatively different than a basic income.

Comment by crl826 on Competitive Universal Basic Services? · 2020-11-09T05:10:59.719Z · LW · GW

If you insist that government guarantee anything, why not vouchers for that thing?

Providing things directly vs basic income seems like a false binary.

Comment by crl826 on PredictIt: Presidential Market is Increasingly Wrong · 2020-10-22T02:25:16.000Z · LW · GW

Sure, but the whole point of prediction markets is to capture knowledge from individuals that wouldn't otherwise be available.

If everyone just bets what the polls say, then why have the market at all?

The response could just as easily be "why are the polls wrong?"

Comment by crl826 on What's the difference between GAI and a government? · 2020-10-22T02:08:26.911Z · LW · GW

Why Not Just: Think of AGI Like a Corporation?

Comment by crl826 on PredictIt: Presidential Market is Increasingly Wrong · 2020-10-19T00:32:29.517Z · LW · GW

Since the outcome isn't known, how can you be so sure that it is wrong either way?

How is this different than saying a particular stock price is "wrong"? 

Comment by crl826 on Is libertarianism unsustainable? Why? · 2020-10-11T16:13:12.114Z · LW · GW

It's certainly not either/or (nor did you necessarily suggest it was).

This doesn't include non-economic reasons. People who think more or less people should be married, should or shouldn't consume certain substances or sell or see particular things. The idea that there is one true way or, at least, some things that can't be a part of anyone's way has a long history.

Libertarianism is hard because most people want to be in other people's business.

Comment by crl826 on How to reach 80% of your goals. Exactly 80%. · 2020-10-10T23:12:27.009Z · LW · GW

Do you ever find yourself inclined to not work as hard as you could so you don't have to set bigger goals next week? 

Comment by crl826 on Can we hold intellectuals to similar public standards as athletes? · 2020-10-08T22:11:36.776Z · LW · GW

Thinking about this some more, I wonder if you could ever get to a place where pundits were looked down on for not making falsifiable predictions.

People with bad records and people who won't go on record are both treated as second class.

Probably still too much to hope for.

Comment by crl826 on Can we hold intellectuals to similar public standards as athletes? · 2020-10-08T00:47:46.525Z · LW · GW

One common issue though is that many intellectuals are trained specifically not to communicate falsifiable predictions. They often try to word things in ways that seem confident, but are easy to argue against after the fact.

 

Yep. 

And most pundits skill is not in accuracy, but in building an audience.  Media want pundits to make outrageous statements for clickbait/stop channel changing. General public want pundits to validate their opinions.

If accuracy was actually a concern, they would already be held accountable.  There are several fairly easy ways to do it, society just has chosen not to.

Comment by crl826 on Seek Upside Risk · 2020-10-04T16:45:49.490Z · LW · GW

Isn't there a bit of a contradiction when you say choice and uncertainty make you uncomfortable but when you ask other people to make choices you should frame it as giving them opportunity?

I'm not saying either is wrong but it does seem a little off to say "bad for me, good for you". Or at least a bit of a paradox.

Comment by crl826 on "Win First" vs "Chill First" · 2020-09-29T16:48:43.571Z · LW · GW

I agree with all this and think it can be generalized even more.

Whenever there are multiple ways to define success of a system, the parts of the system need to be aligned on which one they are going for. The whole can be less than the sum of its parts if not.

Comment by crl826 on A Toy Model of Hingeyness · 2020-09-08T20:47:55.609Z · LW · GW

It wasn't about being negative or not. My question works just as well with a positive number.

I was trying to get at what happens when the range of one of the final branches goes wider than another final branch.

If that is the case, then it is mathematically possible for a more recent hinge to be hingier than a hinge further back in time.

Comment by crl826 on Luna First, But Not To Live There · 2020-09-08T11:15:02.396Z · LW · GW

OP addresses space tourism in the post.

Comment by crl826 on A Toy Model of Hingeyness · 2020-09-08T11:13:01.447Z · LW · GW

Its seems like it's only impossible because that is how you've drawn it. Not that it isn't actually mathematically impossible.

Why couldnt one of the final branches in your example be -100?

Comment by crl826 on A Toy Model of Hingeyness · 2020-09-08T00:06:50.889Z · LW · GW
In fact, it's a mathematically impossible that future decisions have a range of options that's larger than the previous decisions had

Can you expand on this because it isn't obvious to me that this is true.

Comment by crl826 on Why don't countries, like companies, more often merge? · 2020-08-23T04:03:30.750Z · LW · GW
Mexico gets access to better governance

Assuming the Mexican people wanted this and that they thought the US could give it to them, how would they get it?

In this scenario, the government isn't responsive to the people so how would they get this non-responsive government to give up its power and merge with the US?

Comment by crl826 on Coronavirus and Rents II · 2020-08-21T12:29:27.565Z · LW · GW

My hypothesis would be that 3+ bedrooms are roommate situations and risks and costs are more distributed and, thus, a little more sticky.

Comment by crl826 on Should we write more about social life? · 2020-08-20T23:47:27.510Z · LW · GW

Perhaps something that Viliam suggested here. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G8rjvNuBQccyKFsAx/should-we-write-more-about-social-life?commentId=GgaWJ5QMGKqEHDgMg

Maybe ones with data are likely to be good and ones without likely to be bad?

Comment by crl826 on Open & Welcome Thread - August 2020 · 2020-08-07T21:15:17.695Z · LW · GW

What counts as a majority? Is it something I can just go do now?

Comment by crl826 on Open & Welcome Thread - August 2020 · 2020-08-06T22:47:53.326Z · LW · GW

Is there a reason there is a separate tag for akrasia and procrastination? Could they be combined?

Comment by crl826 on Why isn't there a LessWrong App? Is a "blog-app" sustainable/useful for a community? · 2020-08-03T00:44:10.809Z · LW · GW
(I would love to have an app instead of using the browser to browse the site).

Just out of curiosity....why?

Comment by crl826 on DARPA Digital Tutor: Four Months to Total Technical Expertise? · 2020-07-16T19:38:15.356Z · LW · GW

You can only answer that question by including "compared to what?"

It would appear that, in this case, experience only taught what could have been learned with a better method of instruction.

Comment by crl826 on Learning flirting with an acting coach - thoughts? · 2020-07-09T23:48:02.155Z · LW · GW

Sorry. Yes, that is what I meant.

And yes, it is hard to argue with those 5 items mentioned in that article. (Be careful on eye contact though. Fine line between paying attention and unblinking serial killer :))


I love how seriously you're taking this. Sincerely. How do you aim to measure effectiveness of this?

Comment by crl826 on Learning flirting with an acting coach - thoughts? · 2020-07-08T14:13:43.620Z · LW · GW

How do you know if "pretend flirting" is accurate?

Comment by crl826 on When a status symbol loses its plausible deniability, how much power does it lose? · 2020-07-07T16:39:39.992Z · LW · GW

I'm not sure if this reference will work,but...

If you think you can "Moneyball" status and hire Harvard caliber people without paying Harvard caliber wages, then the "Moneyball" story suggests people will follow that model pretty quickly.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moneyball

Comment by crl826 on When a status symbol loses its plausible deniability, how much power does it lose? · 2020-07-07T01:31:30.725Z · LW · GW

I'm curious as to why you think it would drop at all. Or that people don't already know that it's a status symbol.

There's an interview I've heard with Supreme Court Justice Scalia where he says he only looks at clerks from the big law schools. Paraphrasing him but something to the effect of "I don't have time to take a chance on looking at other schools" Other places could have perfectly good clerks, but there was too great a chance that they weren't.

I don't know that I agree with his thought process, but I understand it. I don't think he had any illusions about it being a status symbol. Indeed that was exactly why he was using it.

I think what you mean is what would happen if people knew it was "incorrectly" a status symbol. The answer to that would depend on, not only, why they made that determination *and* what the alternatives are. For example, if people think Harvard grads are 5 times better than other grads, but some bad publicity happens and now people only think Harvard grads are 3 times better than other grads....they'll be OK. :)

Comment by crl826 on Replicated cognitive bias list? · 2020-07-04T18:27:43.323Z · LW · GW

Really glad you posted this.

What I've been doing since you posted is searching for individual bias and "replication" in Google Scholar. Turning up results for some of them. Would be cool to build a list of those.

Comment by crl826 on [Personal Experiment] One Year without Junk Media: Six-Month Update · 2020-06-21T20:10:33.237Z · LW · GW

So you can't step away from media because you might miss some historical event that you have to react quickly too, but that's never happened?

Do you think that you would find out about war, political instability, coups, dangerous diseases even if you didn't have access to any kind of media?

Comment by crl826 on [Personal Experiment] One Year without Junk Media: Six-Month Update · 2020-06-21T05:34:21.333Z · LW · GW

Can you tell me how you identify what is are historical events vs just noise?

How did you react to them and what would have been different if you reacted to said historical event a few days later?

Comment by crl826 on [Personal Experiment] One Year without Junk Media: Six-Month Update · 2020-06-19T23:07:21.205Z · LW · GW

Not OP, but I'd be curious what important thing he should act on but miss because of this plan.

Comment by crl826 on How Doomed are Large Organizations? · 2020-01-23T00:14:02.022Z · LW · GW

"Why wouldn't customers prefer a more efficient provider?"

What choice do they have? If mazes are inevitable, there is no non-maze provider.

I should state that I have loved this series and it matches my experiences and observations so I'm inclined to believe it. With that said....

" Moloch still wins eventually, as eventually you have to compete with other hard-working non-maze-waste orgs. But that can take a long time, and the ramp is far more pleasant. "

As best as i can tell your solution is "Don't do non-maze things". That there is some kind of 'good Moloch' that is possible. (Do you have any examples of that happening?)

Zvi has laid out his case for why this isn't realistic. You may disagree, and I would love to hear where you think he has gone wrong. But it seems like you are dismissing his points and saying that you can willpower(?) your way out of this.

I truly mean this all in good faith and would love to figure a way out if for financial reasons alone ( I agree with your point that if someone could escape this, it seems like it would be very profitable. I just don't see any solutions)

Comment by crl826 on How Doomed are Large Organizations? · 2020-01-22T22:15:53.396Z · LW · GW

Along with WeWork, the Golden Globes (Oscars? One of the Hollywood awards shows...) had only vegetarian options for the meal.

Comment by crl826 on How Doomed are Large Organizations? · 2020-01-22T00:11:16.000Z · LW · GW

"Market discipline is incredibly powerful, and very hard to fool for very long."

If this is true, why do the mazes exist at all? Why doesn't the market shed mazes (or the companies that don't shed mazes)?

Comment by crl826 on How to Identify an Immoral Maze · 2020-01-13T17:30:45.486Z · LW · GW

Is there some reason you don't think it would be?

Comment by crl826 on Why aren't assurance contracts widely used? · 2019-12-07T13:10:51.561Z · LW · GW

"Sign this petition if you want Michelle Obama to be president! If at least 100million people sign, you promise to vote for her. Otherwise, you'll get a $1 gift card to Target."

How would that promise be enforced?

If me and my friends didn't want Michelle Obama to be President, wouldn't it be smart of us to all sign up and take money from an Obama supporter and then vote for who we really want?

Comment by crl826 on Why aren't assurance contracts widely used? · 2019-12-01T04:05:24.010Z · LW · GW

It's certainly a new idea.

I think the reasons it might not work would also vary across potential problems they are trying to solve. What are the incentives that have led to the current state? Do people *actually* want to solve the problem?

Comment by crl826 on Overcoming Akrasia/Procrastination - Volunteers Wanted · 2019-07-16T01:59:48.190Z · LW · GW

I'm interested