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Comment by ariskatsaris on Why Bayesians should two-box in a one-shot · 2017-12-17T20:15:21.775Z · score: 3 (3 votes) · LW · GW

You're using words like "reputation", and understand how having a reputation for one-boxing is preferable, when we're discussing the level where Omega has access to the source code of your brain and can just tell whether you'll one-box or not, as a matter of calculation.

So the source-code of your brain just needs to decide whether it'll be a source-code that will be one-boxing or not. This isn't really about "precommittment" for that one specific scenario. Omega doesn't need to know whether you have precomitted or not, Omega isn't putting money in the boxes based on whether you have precommitted or not. It's putting money based on the decision you'll arrive to, even if you yourself don't know the decision yet.

You can't make the decision in advance, because you may not know the exact parameters of the decision you'll be asked to make (one-boxing & two-boxing are just examples of one particular type of decision). You can decide however whether you're the sort of person who accepts their decisions can be deterministically predicted in advance with sufficient certainty, or whether you'll be claiming that other people predicting your choice must be a violation of causality (it's not).

Comment by ariskatsaris on Why Bayesians should two-box in a one-shot · 2017-12-17T20:07:13.267Z · score: 0 (0 votes) · LW · GW

It is not compatible to believe your actions follow deterministically, and still talk about decision theory from a first-person point of view,

So it's the pronouns that matter? If I keep using "Aris Katsaris" rather than "I" that makes a difference to whether the person I'm talking about makes decisions that can be deterministally predicted?

Whether someone can predict your decisions has ZERO relevancy on whether you are the one making the decisions or not. This sort of confusion where people think that "free will" means "being unpredictable" is nonsensical - it's the very opposite. For the decisions to be yours, they must be theoretically predictable, arising from the contents of your brains. Adding in randomness and unpredictability, like e.g. using dice or coinflips reduces the ownership of the decisions and hence the free will.

This is old and tired territory.

Comment by ariskatsaris on MIRI's 2017 Fundraiser · 2017-12-14T01:02:43.038Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Makes sense, I'm betting many members of the wider rationalist community have seen their assets increase because of the significant rise of Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies this year.

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