Comment by greylag on Scrying for outcomes where the problem of deepfakes has been solved · 2019-04-15T12:02:22.609Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Alternative: notarised alibis as a service. The anonymous (and dubiously valid) video received by the broadcaster has me red handed in the library with the obvious melee weapon, but MY signed and notorised personal cloud of things has me harmlessly drinking in a pub at the same time in a different location, which proves beyond reasonable doubt that the deepfake is fake.

In other words: it’s a tough call ensuring all the wannabe bad actors have adequately sealed and trusted cameras, at which point panoptical surveillance by a vaguely trusted system starts to seem like a good alternative.

(This feels very Brin, so I may have stolen it from him)

Depending how trustworthy the surveillance is, this may merely be an express route to a different dystopia.

Comment by greylag on Extraordinary ethics require extraordinary arguments · 2019-02-18T07:15:52.120Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

A way I would suggest looking at it: your scrupulousity daæmon has its own estimates of prior probabilities for such things as “you being a fundamentally decent person” and “you being on the cusp of accomplishing dreadful evil, maybe by accident”, and those estimates are, respectively, low, and high, because the dæmon shares your mental substrate and inherits the effects of depression.

As with us, the dæmon’s priors guide its theorising. It expects you to accomplish dreadful evil. How? Well, if your prior probability for something is high, and there isn’t a simple explanation, then there must be a complicated explanation! And people are very good at producing complicated hypotheses out of nothing, we’ve been doing it for millennia.

Comment by greylag on The Argument from Philosophical Difficulty · 2019-02-10T07:35:21.029Z · score: 3 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Optimistic scenario 6: Technological progress in AI makes difficult philosophical problems much easier. (Lots of overlap with corrigibility). Early examples: Axelrod’s tournaments, Dennett on Conway’s Life as a tool for thinking more clearly about free will.

(This is probably a special case of corrigibilty).

Comment by greylag on Is Clickbait Destroying Our General Intelligence? · 2018-11-18T22:00:00.582Z · score: 3 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Neuromancer, bleah, what is wrong with this book, it feels damaged, why do people like this, it feels like there's way too much flash and it ate the substance, it's showing off way too hard.

Hypotheses:

  1. This is the millennia-long tension between Enlightenment and Romanticism. Romanticism feels deeply wrong to someone on team Enlightenment, especially when stealing Enlightenment’s science fictional tropes!
  2. A cultural Idea Trap. Great Stagnation gives you Cyberpunk. (Doubtful, suspect events occurred in wrong order)
Comment by greylag on Is Clickbait Destroying Our General Intelligence? · 2018-11-18T21:48:20.847Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Early Heinlein, because my parents didn't want me reading the later books.

This seems like exceptionally good judgement.

Comment by greylag on Is Clickbait Destroying Our General Intelligence? · 2018-11-18T21:45:53.015Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

the intense competition to get into Harvard is producing a monoculture of students who've lined up every single standard accomplishment and how these students don't know anything else they want to do with their lives

This is Goodhart’s Law run riot, yes?

Comment by greylag on Where is my Flying Car? · 2018-10-18T19:05:25.257Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I might have to read the book. I'm not sure I want to, if it's going to be 60% nostalgia for a future that didn't happen, and 40% blaming "fundamentalist" environmentalists for everything.

For 1000 mph are we talking SSTs or vactrains? Vactrains - depending on pumping losses - might be quite (whisper it, so Josh can't hear) ergophobe. Quiet, too. For SSTs, do we just displace all electric load to nukes, so the cost of kerosene is unimportant, and fly larger Concordes? (Anyone who doesn't like sudden loud noises is an environmentalist!) Do we fly SSTs higher, maybe fueled with cryogenic hydrogen, made from water and low-demand-period electricity?

Undersea cities... don't sound *very* energy-intensive. How do the citizens of Atlantis earn their living?

What would the lunar base be for? Exploration? An observatory? Helium-3? Near-future projections often involved mining the moon then rail-launching ore into orbit - probably solar-powered. Is this ergophobic? It's much more efficient than a chemical rocket...

Comment by greylag on Where is my Flying Car? · 2018-10-17T13:01:33.202Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Could you give some more examples of "innovating" and "disappointing" industries?

Were those SF writers clueless optimists, making mostly random forecasting errors? No! Josh shows that for the least energy intensive technologies, their optimism was about right...

Arthur C. Clarke's Comsats: energy-intensive, huge success

Asimov's robots: disappointing because intelligence turns out to be harder than we thought.

Asimov's "Psychohistory": disappointing because chaos theory?

James Blish's "Cities in Flight": antigravity and force fields, ironically capable of running off a small zinc-air battery. Disappointing because we haven't found a physics rootkit that interesting.

What if we pick randomly from http://www.technovelgy.com?