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comment by DanielFilan · 2024-02-02T00:46:39.791Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Here is an example of the NYT prominently writing about how men weren't allowed to leave in March 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/world/europe/ukraine-poland-families-separation.html

Replies from: TrevorWiesinger
comment by trevor (TrevorWiesinger) · 2024-02-02T00:59:31.632Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

My model never called for the NYT to never publish a single article referencing the draft during march 2023 (sorry I didn't mention this), it called for there to be ~30 articles or so that avoided mentioning it for every one that did, which is what happened; even though it was one of the biggest social issues in Ukraine related to the war and people leaving the country. My model calls for journalists to have basic competence in plausible deniability, e.g. downstream of today's high lawyers-per-capita. Furthermore

Furthermore, that article may have been relegated to a side column on the day of its publication, which fewer people click, and it does not mention the draft at all, instead featuring more of the obvious propaganda that I described.

Ultimately, the spread on social media is what determines how many people see what information, not front pages, which is even less transparent and hard to research than seeing the journalists routinely and deliberately conceal information about the war.

comment by gjm · 2024-02-02T15:50:31.180Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I think using the phrase "level 6 lies" when referring to Scott's taxonomy is itself at least a "level 6 lie".

Here, by way of reminder, is Scott's list. (I've abbreviated it a bit; you can find the full version at the far end of trevor's link if you want to check my honesty.) 1. Reasoning well and getting things right. 2. Reasoning well and getting things wrong by bad luck. 3. Reasoning badly through honest incompetence. 4. Reasoning badly because of unconscious bias. 5. Presenting true facts in a way that misleads, "subconsciously and unthinkingly". 6. Presenting true facts in a way that misleads, with deliberate intent to deceive. 7. Saying false things on purpose, in order to deceive.

I claim that "levels" 1-4 in this list are simply, straightforwardly, uncontroversially not lying.

It seems highly dubious to me to call 5 and 6 (5 especially) "lying", but even if we decide to do so Scott's 6 is not in any useful sense the sixth of seven levels of lying, it's at most the second of three levels.

Further, Scott's own position, stated very clearly in the article you linked to, is that things at level 5 are not lies, and that most things at level 6 are not lies either. "I prefer to reserve lying for 7 and the most egregious cases of 6, and to have a pretty high standard for accusing people of this rather than 2/3/4/5."

If you call things at level 6 (and, it seems to me, not in fact "the most egregious cases of 6" in this case) "level 6 lies" then you are not, contrary to your own description, applying "Scott's criteria for media lies".

I suggest that "brazenly lied" also strongly implies something more than "lying by omission".

(Others have already made essentially the same point I am making here, but I think it needs making with more force and details.)

Replies from: TrevorWiesinger, bruce-lewis
comment by trevor (TrevorWiesinger) · 2024-02-29T13:39:17.920Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I think using the phrase "level 6 lies" when referring to Scott's taxonomy is itself at least a "level 6 lie".

False. It is level 2: "Reasoning well and getting things wrong by bad luck". I interpreted "the NYT routinely and deliberately misleading millions of people" to fit the definition of the word "lied". 

Unfortunately, a bunch of commenters thought that didn't fit the definition; maybe that stricter definition is superior, but it isn't common knowledge for most English speakers.

Replies from: gjm
comment by gjm · 2024-03-01T01:57:29.215Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Your justification seems to me almost completely non-responsive to the point I was actually making, which is not about whether it's reasonable to call what the NYT did in these cases "lying" but about whether it's reasonable to call something at level 6 in Scott's taxonomy a "level 6 lie".

Scott classifies utterances into seven types in ascending order of dishonesty. The first four are uncontroversially not kinds of lying. Therefore, something on the sixth level of Scott's taxonomy cannot reasonably be called a "level 6 lie", because that phrase will lead any reader who hasn't checked carefully to think that Scott has a taxonomy of levels of lying, where a "level 6 lie" is something worse than a level 5 lie, which is worse than a level 4 lie, ... than a level 1 lie, with all these things actually being kinds of lies.

Whereas in fact, even if we ignore Scott's own opinion that only "the most egregious cases of 6" (and also all of 7) deserve to be called lies at all, at the absolute worst a level-6 utterance is more-dishonest-than only one lower level of lie.

Further, you called these things "Scott Alexander's criteria for media lies", which is plainly not an accurate description because, again, more than half the levels in his taxonomy are completely uncontroversially not lying at all (and Scott's own opinion is that only the top level and "the most egregious cases of" the one below should be called lying).

So even if you were 100% sincere and reasonable in regarding what the NYT did as ("routinely and brazenly") lying, I do not see any way to understand your alleged application of Scott's taxonomy as a sincere and reasonable use of it. I do not find it plausible that you are really unable to understand that most of its levels are plainly not types of lie. I do not find it plausible that you really thought that something that begins with "reasoning well, and getting things right" followed by "reasoning well, but getting things wrong because the world is complicated and you got unlucky" can rightly be described as "criteria for media lies".

I could, of course, be wrong. Maybe you really are stupid enough not to understand that "according to X's criteria for media lies, Y is a level 6 lie" implies that what X presented is a classification of lies into levels, in which Y comes at level 6. Or maybe the stupidity is mine and actually most people wouldn't interpret it that way. (I would bet heavily against that but, again, I could be wrong.) Maybe you didn't actually read Scott's list, somehow. But you don't generally seem stupid or unable to understand the meanings and implications of words, so I still find it much much more plausible that you knew perfectly well that Scott was presenting a taxonomy of mostly-not-lies, and chose to phrase things as you did because it made what you were accusing the NYT of sound worse. Which is, I repeat, on at least level 6 of Scott's taxonomy.

And, again, none of this is about whether the NYT really did what you say, nor about whether it's reasonable to describe what you said the NYT did was lying. It's entirely about your abuse of Scott's taxonomy, which (1) is not a list of "criteria for media lies" and (2) is not something that justifies calling an utterance at its Nth level a "level N lie".

Replies from: TrevorWiesinger
comment by trevor (TrevorWiesinger) · 2024-03-01T15:56:26.805Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Look, instead of going to all this trouble to impute dark motives, maybe you could go look at the whole purpose of this post, the three NYT articles I cited, see what they're writing about, and notice "wow, this well-trusted institution really was bending over backwards to deceive many thousands of people about the Ukraine war, it's pretty cool that Trevor found this and put the work into a post pointing it out!".

It looks like the disagreement stems entirely from this line:

On Scott Alexander's criteria for media lies, these would be Level 6 lies; however, Level 7 lies are not practical for journalists, nor particularly necessary in a world where the lawyers-per-capita is as high as it is today.

That list was sent to me by a friend, and I figured citing it would be helpful. Upon going and looking through Scott's other writings on the topic e.g. The Media Very Rarely Lies, it looks clear that Scott went to a lot of trouble to standardize a very specific definition for the word "Lie". It is not surprising that lots people in this community got most of their understanding of news outlets deception from a few Scott Alexander posts (which are great posts), and subsequently expect short inferential distances [LW · GW] from people who approached the topic from completely different backgrounds.

I haven't spent the last 10 years on Lesswrong, and don't really have experience with people finding galaxy-brained ways to write deceptive posts that are plausibly deniably disguised as mistakes. My understanding is that that sort of behavior is common among corporate executives. I instead spent the last 10 years in environments where people would just take mistakes at face value, and ask about the details of word definitions, instead of immediately jumping to accusations of deliberate dishonesty.

Replies from: gjm
comment by gjm · 2024-03-02T00:27:15.699Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I did, in fact, read the post and the NYT articles, and I am not convinced that your description of what they do and what it means is correct. So, if my response to your article doesn't consist mostly of the gushing praise your first paragraph indicates you'd prefer, that's one reason why.

But, regardless of that: If you write something wrong, and someone points out that it's wrong, I don't think it's reasonable to respond with "how dare you point that out rather than looking only at the other parts of what I wrote?".

Scott is not using some weird eccentric definition of "lie". E.g., the main definition in the OED is: "An act or instance of lying; a false statement made with intent to deceive; a criminal falsehood." (Does that first clause soften it? Not really; it's uninformative, because they define the verb "lie" in terms of the noun "lie".) First definition in Wiktionary is " To give false information intentionally with intent to deceive". But, in any case, even with a very broad definition of "lie" the first four levels in his taxonomy are simply, uncontroversially, obviously not kinds of lying. Again, the first one is "reasoning well, and getting things right".

If I say "There are seven classes of solid objects in the solar system: dust motes, pebbles, boulders, mountains, moons, small planets, and large planets" and you identify something as a small planet, you should not call it "a Level 6 Planet, according to gjm's classification of planets".

And, while I understand a preference for being charitable and not leaping to calling things dishonest that aren't necessarily so ... I don't think you get to demand such treatment in the comments on an article that does the exact reverse to someone else.

comment by Bruce Lewis (bruce-lewis) · 2024-02-02T19:07:52.796Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

This comment is a level 1 lie! (I'm replying to it now with a level 5 lie.)

comment by benjamincosman · 2024-02-02T13:46:40.741Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

The title of this post is a "level 6 lie" too. I, and I'd guess many if not most of your readers, came here expecting to read some type 7 once we saw "routinely and brazenly lied". Which means you built a false model in our heads, even if you can claim you are technically accurate because Scott Alexander once wrote a thing where NYT's behavior is type 6. Plus I will note that his description of type 6 calls it not technically lying, which rather weakens your claim to be even technically correct.

Replies from: TrevorWiesinger
comment by trevor (TrevorWiesinger) · 2024-02-29T13:32:48.971Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

The title of this post is not a level 6 or 7 lie. It assumed that "bending over backwards to deliberately mislead millions of people" fit the definition for the word "lied".

comment by DanielFilan · 2024-02-02T00:44:06.430Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Your 3 NYT quotes are not lies.

Replies from: TrevorWiesinger
comment by trevor (TrevorWiesinger) · 2024-02-02T00:54:15.693Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I already clarified that they are level 6 lies according to Scott Alexander's criteria.

We can quibble about definitions forever, what happened was unambiguous deception, and during March 2022 it was everywhere.

comment by Viliam · 2024-02-02T16:49:46.368Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Trevor, I have noticed previously that you keep making allusions to the Ukraine war. I prefer that you have now approached the topic directly, so that I can be more sure that this is something you actually care about, rather than merely a random example to illustrate a more general point. (Sensor Exposure can Compromise the Human Brain in the 2020s [LW · GW]; Helpful examples to get a sense of modern automated manipulation [LW · GW]; An intuitive explanation of the AI influence situation [LW · GW])

In this article, you seem to make two points: about the draft in Ukraine per se, and about its coverage by NYT.

In case of draft, you admit that it is generally not considered a human rights violation... but then you still conclude that is bad if Ukraine does it -- because Ukraine is a hybrid regime; because although Zelensky won with 73% of votes, his approval ratings later dropped a lot; because people in post-communist countries are skeptical towards their governments; and because the war will be long and bloody. (That makes it sound like draft is acceptable only when a highly popular leader in a democratic country intends to fight a short and bloodless war.)

You also link an article discussing draft from the perspective of human rights, but that article actually talks about draft in Russia. That is, it talks about soldiers drafted for an offensive war rather than for the defense of their homeland, and its point is roughly: "before you condemn the attacking soldiers as individuals for the invasion, consider the fact that most of them are probably there unwillingly".

I could agree in general with the principle "draft is bad". I mean, we are talking about 18 years old kids who get a probabilistic death penalty for the sole crime of being born male! But that is not what you are saying. You seem to suggest that the draft in Ukraine is a special kind of evil, as opposed to... a normal draft.

In case of media coverage, you say NYT "routinely and brazenly lied" in the title, but in response to DanielFilan you kinda admit that your actual problem is that NYT does not talk frequently enough about how draft is bad.

In summary, it seems to me that you are twisting facts in order to support your perspective.

Replies from: avturchin, greylag
comment by avturchin · 2024-02-02T19:15:10.169Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Also, draft in Ukraine was only for people older than 27 years old, which is not obvious from this blog post. Closing borders for males was not equal to draft. Many found legal ways to leave - eg by becoming students in foreign universities.

comment by greylag · 2024-02-03T09:38:45.358Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

How does knowing about Ukraine’s draft affect an NYT reader’s opinion of the war? I mean it’s not going to be like

  • Reader: “Ukraine’s justified in defending itself from Russia!”
  • NYT-whistleblower: ”But Ukraine drafted soldiers to do it, and the NYT didn’t tell you!”
  • Reader: ”Oh, well, screw those guys, Ukraine should lose!”

… so what is it like?

Some ways a reader could respond include:

  • More instinctive patriotic fervour (Glory to Ukraine’s presumably-voluntary heroes!) (… and this seems like the likely propaganda angle in question)
  • Increased salience of hellishness of the war, therefore Russia should win asap to minimise bloodshed
  • Increased salience of hellishness of the war, therefore arm Ukraine to punish Russia for starting it

If you turn up the prior belief of collusion between the NYT and a military-industrial-political complex, you can imagine a “pragmatic” situation where the West arms Ukraine enough to keep Russia embroiled in a war of attrition, thereby pouring Russia’s armed forces into a meatgrinder for, from Western accountings, pennies on the dollar, and this might be pragmatic, or even hard to improve on (because arming Ukraine too much could provoke nuclear response from Russia), but, damn it all, it doesn’t feel very heroic. So, NYT is left waving the banners and playing the trumpets?

Replies from: Viliam
comment by Viliam · 2024-02-03T20:34:56.569Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Steelman:

If you mistakenly assume that all Ukrainian soldiers in this war are volunteers, it would mean that X people oppose the Russian invasion so much that they are literally willing to risk their lives to stop it. When you learn that actually most Ukrainian soldiers are drafted, you should decrease your estimate of X. (Yes, some of those soldiers really want to defend their homeland; and some of them kinda want their homeland to remain independent, but would prefer to increase the chances of their own survival; and finally some of them actually want to become a part of Russia, but are forced against their will to fight against.) Ukraine being a "hybrid regime" and Zelensky being not very popular right before the war is indirect evidence that many people might oppose the official policy of resisting Russia, and that Ukraine might be the kind of country that would send them to die by thousands regardless.

For an American reader, assuming that all Ukrainian soldiers are either professionals or volunteers would be an easy mistake to make. NYT is lying by omission by not mentioning this fact (frequently enough).

The expected reaction of a reader is probably something like: "I assumed, based on the number of soldiers, that opposing Russia is very popular among the Ukrainians... but now I realize that those soldiers were literally forced at gunpoint to go fighting, so this is actually not evidence of a popular support... now I have no strong evidence either way, and maybe the fact that NYT was manipulating me in a certain direction should make me update in the opposite direction... so the conclusion is somewhere between 'Russia is right' and 'we actually don't know who is right', and in either case we should stop interfering."

.

This of course works better if the reader has no other information about Russia and Ukraine. Then again, that might actually be the case for a typical NYT reader.

comment by trevor (TrevorWiesinger) · 2024-02-02T21:47:37.072Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

This post released evidence, which I was sitting on for almost 1.5 years now, that America's largest newspaper probably went out of their way to conceal information that would embarrass the Ukranian regime and instead printed obvious propaganda in favor of the Western side of the proxy war.

I'm incredibly disappointed with the comments here. This was something we all saw at the time, maybe fewer people than I thought had the professional background needed to recognize it while it was happening, or critical thinking skills either weren't applied or weren't sufficient to see how openly hostile the major media outlets became.

In large part, it was my fault for not tagging it well, resulting in attracting randos who were more interested in the semantics of the title than the object-level arguments of the post, due to inability to understand or evaluate the arguments (or even read them, which seems to be what happened here).

However, I knew that I wouldn't have access to internet and thought that just putting it on the "world modelling" tag would leave it on the front page long enough that people who knew what they were talking about would read it. This was a mistake; every post I've put up so far had more tags, that attracted more specialists over time. Perhaps the "world modelling" tag attracts people who have learned over time to prioritize prediction market wording/resolution criteria over actually modelling reality, a problem that people don't have to worry about as much on dath ilan [? · GW]. I also could have posted larger chunks of the articles rather than assuming that people would click one of the links and take my word that the other two would be similar. 

I should have gotten webarchive links of many more NYT articles in March 2022, sadly at the time these 3 seemed more than extreme enough to illustrate the point, and I didn't think to gather more. If you're investigating media accuracy, make sure to get as many webarchive links as possible at the time, not just the most extreme examples, these firms have basically unlimited leeway to edit articles after the fact and LLMs might soon be involved.

I'm going to write up another copy of this post, making sure to put tons of effort into the title and only use words that nobody could possibly take issue with. It will also fix the actual problem with this post (which only Viliam came close to noticing), which is that I poorly/vaguely described connection between the smoking gun NYT evidence, and its implications for geopolitics and the survival of democracy.

Replies from: benjamincosman
comment by benjamincosman · 2024-02-03T15:01:12.142Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Here's the closest thing to your argument in this post that I'd endorse:

  • Ukraine did not allow its men to leave.
  • NYT did not mention this fact as often as a "fully unbiased" paper would have, and in fact often used wordings that were deliberately deceptive in that they'd cause a reader to assume that men were staying behind voluntarily.
  • Therefore NYT is not a fully unbiased paper.

The part I disagree with: I think this is drastically blown out of proportion (e.g. that this represents "extreme subversions of democracy"). Yes NYT (et al) is biased, but

  • I think this has been true for much longer than just the Ukraine war
  • I think there are much stronger pieces of evidence one could use to demonstrate it than this stuff about the Ukraine war (e.g. https://twitter.com/KelseyTuoc/status/1588231892792328192)
  • I think that yes all this is bad, but democracy is managing to putter along anyway

Which means that in my eyes, the issue with your post is precisely the degree to which it is exaggerating the problem. Which is why I (and perhaps other commenters) focused our comments on your exaggerations, such as the "routinely and brazenly lied" title. So these comments seem quite sane to me; I think you're drawing entirely the wrong lesson from all this if you think the issue is that you drew the wrong people here with your tagging choices (you'd have drawn me no matter what with your big-if-true title), or didn't post large enough excerpts from the articles. But if you plan to firm up the "implications for geopolitics and the survival of democracy", I look forward to reading that.