Posts

discounting on the radio 2012-07-29T05:24:54.448Z
People v Paper clips 2012-05-21T16:06:29.267Z
Rational Parenting? 2011-06-08T03:43:58.791Z

Comments

Comment by jdinkum on Need some psychology advice · 2013-02-27T21:23:50.419Z · LW · GW

I wasn't saying to commit to not breaking over the content of a text message, but to commit to not breaking up over the medium of texting.

Even in a two week old relationship, I think it's reasonable to say something like, "Hey, I enjoy hanging out with you, and it seems you feel the same. If you change your mind though, please don't tell me over text or e-mail, just give me a call."

Comment by jdinkum on Need some psychology advice · 2013-02-27T18:33:32.852Z · LW · GW

How about requesting her to pre-commit to not breaking up with you in response to a text or e-mail, and to not delay her response because she is considering breaking up with you.

Comment by jdinkum on LW Women: LW Online · 2013-02-15T19:06:16.922Z · LW · GW

I think it'd be helpful to have a small textbox to add a short comment to a poster where I can put "I agree!" or "Fallacious reasoning" or "inappropriate discussion" that only shows up in the poster's view so there is some feedback besides Up/Down, yet doesn't clog up the thread.

I've never seen that function in a forum though, so perhaps the programming is simple.

Comment by jdinkum on LW Women: LW Online · 2013-02-15T18:44:39.662Z · LW · GW

I just don't understand the downvote/upvote thing, especially if the norm is/should be for broken thoughts.

When I get downvoted (or upvoted), I often don't get a comment explaining why. So it's unclear where I'm broken (or what I'm doing right). That's frustrating and doesn't help me increase my value to the community.

It'd be nice to have downvoters supply a reason why, in order to improve the original.

Comment by jdinkum on LW Women: LW Online · 2013-02-15T07:40:50.246Z · LW · GW

I believe the real issue that B. raised of LW being cold won't be effectively improved by posting "I agree!" replies, but requires some emotional involvement. A response that offers something to the OP, that gives something back.

Like, why do you agree? What are the implications of you agreeing? Or, what thoughts or emotions does the content of the post bring up for you? The response doesn't have to be long, but it should be personal and thoughtful.

A little bit more of that may go a long way towards developing community.

Comment by jdinkum on LW Women: LW Online · 2013-02-15T07:14:32.431Z · LW · GW

It feels like people are ten thousand times more likely to point out my flaws than to appreciate something I said. Also, there's >next to no emotional relating to one another.

I'm sorry, that sucks. I think you're right and hope this changes. I don't post very often, but when I do in the future, I'll be more aware of this.

Comment by jdinkum on How to Teach Students to Not Guess the Teacher’s Password? · 2013-01-04T22:41:01.076Z · LW · GW

You could start off by overtly letting the kids know that "guessing the password" is how their success in school is measured and you're not going to be able to change that reality, but you could introduce "alternative" ways of thinking.

How about a game where each student writes down their answer to a passwordy type question and scores a point for every other student with the same answer. Lowest score wins. But they have to justify their answer.

If a teacher asks the question: "Who discovered America?" The password is: "Christopher Columbus"

But there are many more answers that are also valid responses. ( Native Americans, Rodrigo de Triana, the Norse, Vespucci, a US Founding Father, etc) that are mostly based on what the words "discover" or "America" means.

Comment by jdinkum on Causal Universes · 2012-11-28T15:53:42.594Z · LW · GW

Sometimes I still marvel about how in most time-travel stories nobody thinks of this

Characters in the novel Pastwatch by Orson Scott Card wrestle with this issue.

Comment by jdinkum on Parenting and Happiness · 2012-10-04T19:33:30.705Z · LW · GW

While reading the original post I thought of Kahneman's Ted Talk on happiness.

Comment by jdinkum on People v Paper clips · 2012-05-22T15:16:41.157Z · LW · GW

No, but I might exchange the lives of someone elses friends for a billion tons of paperclips.

Comment by jdinkum on People v Paper clips · 2012-05-22T15:16:28.319Z · LW · GW

That's one element in what started my line of thought..I was imagining situations where I would consider the exchange of human lives for non-human objects. How many people's lives would be a fair exchange for a pod of bottlenose dolphins? A West Virginia mountaintop? An entire species of snail?

I think what I'm getting towards is there's a difference between human preferences and human preference for other humans. And by human preferences, I mean my own.

Comment by jdinkum on People v Paper clips · 2012-05-22T15:15:05.845Z · LW · GW

I've been trying to work through Torture versus Dustspecks and The Intuitions Behind Utilitarianism and getting stuck...

It seems Values are arational, but there can be an irrational difference between what we believe our values are and what they really are.

Comment by jdinkum on People v Paper clips · 2012-05-21T20:02:36.787Z · LW · GW

I see I've mistaken the word "inherent" to mean "many people share a term for the existence of humans". Thanks.

Comment by jdinkum on [deleted post] 2012-05-08T00:38:53.670Z

If your goal in pursuing writing advice is to increase your audience then my advice: View yourself as an editor not a writer. Your weakness as a writer (IMHO) is verbosity and generality (the two are often related).

Write your next post and when you feel it's ready, then run a word count on it. Rewrite the post to reduce the count by 50%. Post both versions and see what happens.

Comment by jdinkum on How to avoid dying in a car crash · 2012-03-19T02:28:24.456Z · LW · GW

I think a fair question to ask is, "If you don't use a car, how will you get to places safely?"

There seems to be an unsupported assumption that the alternatives to driving (cycling, walking, public transportation) are SAFER than driving.

On a per-mile travelled basis, what are the risks associated with various forms of transportation (driving, walking, cycling, public bus, public train, etc)? My suspicion is that the danger is (in descending order): cycling, walking, driving, public bus, public train, but I don't know where to go to find evidence.

Comment by jdinkum on Perpetual Motion Beliefs · 2012-02-14T16:22:40.485Z · LW · GW

My point still holds. Most people, myself included, don't have a belief that an egg will spontaneously reform according any laws of physics. To use it as an example of the difference between certainty and likelihood is ineffective.

Comment by jdinkum on Perpetual Motion Beliefs · 2012-02-13T17:58:15.847Z · LW · GW

"The rule that says that the egg won't spontaneously reform and leap back into your hand is merely probabilistic."

This example requires a level of education that doesn't match my belief of the expected audience of this post.

The low importance in the distinction between mathematical certainty and realistic likelihood is valid, but involving quantum probability kills the post for me.

Comment by jdinkum on The lessons of a world without Hitler · 2012-01-17T20:36:28.478Z · LW · GW

I agree it could be worse as well. But it would have to be much worse, enough to account for the "badness" of WWII itself to be undesirable.

Comment by jdinkum on What jobs are safe in an automated future? · 2012-01-14T21:59:37.608Z · LW · GW

Sorry, I should have been clearer.

I do mean automated trucking. I think that development is less than 30 years away. Self-driving cars are a functioning technology now, the main hurdles (not insignificant ones) being social and legal.

Like most human-replacing technology, where the industry still exists, but is now automated ( modern car factories compared to buggy whip manufacturers), I don't expect trucking to be 100% automated, but the human factor will be reduced significantly the next 30 years.

Vehicles will still need humans to gas, service, deal with theft and breakdowns, etc. It will likely start with truckers being able to sleep during trips, still one trucker per vehicle which decreases the down time of cargo by 30%. Then there will likely be one trucker per several vehicles travelling in a convoy. Potentially there could be "truckers" based in areas that handle vehicles as they pass through, rather than travelling with them.

Of course, as the costs of trucking goes down, the attractiveness goes up, so while it may take 1/4 of the manpower to handle the same cargo, the amount of cargo will increase.

I'm estimating a 50% decrease in trucking employment in the next 30 years, even as the amount of cargo doubles.

Comment by jdinkum on What jobs are safe in an automated future? · 2012-01-13T04:53:46.679Z · LW · GW

The US government has listed some trends here: http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_203.htm

Manufacturing is clearly out. Services that involve interacting with other humans (health care, teaching) are in.

Personally, I think we've plucked a lot of low hanging fruit. I predict the maturation of some technologies that will make a few fields move towards obsolescence. I expect at major ( >%50) decline in employment for long haul truckers and tax preparers under that maturation. Retail sales will decline in favor of ship-to-home, and obviously some jobs are clearly disappearing altogether ( running a newspaper printing press,camera loader on a movie set, working at a video rental store, telephone line repairman).

It's easier to predict what will decline rather than what will thrive. Engineering is generally a safe bet though.

Comment by jdinkum on Rational Parenting? · 2011-06-10T21:28:43.540Z · LW · GW

Thanks all for the comments. I didn't actually mean to post this yet (my first original post). I thought I had saved it as a draft and was coming back to flesh it out...and there it was with comments and all.

Despite (or because of??) the terseness of my original post, I received many excellent upvotable replies.

I was going to expound a little more on the two points.

How do I go about defining and achieving realistic goals of parenting? This is the bigger question of the two since I feel more at sea with my 5 year old (also have a 2 year old, who's much "easier"). Some of the resources listed look like good places to start.

How do I encourage my children have a rationalistic worldview? That's something I'm more comfortable with but not really sure if I'm doing a great job.

Anyway, thanks again.

Comment by jdinkum on You'll die if you do that · 2011-05-12T21:26:39.597Z · LW · GW

And extremely common one in my cultural (USA) context is that "being cold" can give you a "cold". According to common wisdom, being out in cold weather with wet hair and no hat will cause you to be infected with a rhinovirus.

The expression encapsulating this is "You'll catch your death!"

When travelling in Eastern Europe, I found a similar attitude towards drafts from a couple locals. The safest was to keep all windows and doors to the outside closed (in a room or car). Opening one portal was frowned on. Two or more (creating airflow) was taboo and would cause sickness.

Comment by jdinkum on Rationalist Movies (Spoilers for the film Limitless) · 2011-03-29T17:35:06.318Z · LW · GW

Please define your use of the word "rich".

Comment by jdinkum on Computer security story · 2011-02-17T20:02:12.177Z · LW · GW

Really? One of three murders in the U.S. go unsolved.

http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2009/data/table_25.html

Comment by jdinkum on Social Necessity of Drinking · 2011-02-15T16:00:09.699Z · LW · GW

You could look at the cost of alcohol as the price you pay to enter a social setting. If you were expected to consume some beverage, and they were all priced the same but exorbitantly, what would you do?

It has not been my experience that someone who doesn't drink stands out in any social setting that I would consider important. If you're getting blank or worse stares, it may be your delivery or it may be you need new social settings.

My recommendation would be to use the question as a platform to engage the questioner and others around. Tell a funny anecdote. Expound on your rationalist beliefs and how they relate to alcohol. Say you don't enjoy, then share what you do enjoy.

Be truthful and earnest and you'll go far if you're amongst the right people.

Comment by jdinkum on Exercise and motivation · 2011-02-15T15:50:43.927Z · LW · GW

I've never been good at motivating to exercise on my own. I have been successful by becoming part of a group, like a studio or a team or a dojo. Developing social relationships around exercise helps me.

I also realized I enjoy physical contact and now gravitate towards martial arts.