Amanda Knox Redux: is Satoshi Nakamoto the real Satoshi Nakamoto?

It's obvious that Amanda Knox is the real Satoshi. Just check the timelines.

I'm going to be more arrogant and say p << 1%:

• Prior probability that a super-intelligent, reclusive, crypto-guy that values anonymity would use his given name as his pseudonym: very very low.

• Subsequent evidence to believe Dorian is Satoshi: He's an apparently intelligent guy that knows how to program + a quote wherein he appears to admit that he was once involved with Bitcoin, but he later claimed was misinterpreted and out of context.

http://predictionbook.com/predictions/24253

I am not Dorian Nakamoto.

http://p2pfoundation.ning.com/profile/SatoshiNakamoto

When I read this story, my response was something like, "I don't believe this very much, but it sure makes a good story — Mysterious Bitcoin founder turns out to be hiding in plain sight under his real name. He's some unassuming old guy, not the anarcho-capitalist cypherpunk everyone was expecting. The fact that it's a good story means a lot of people are going to believe it, since believing things like that is short-term rewarding."

Nope. I say p~=10%.

• The Newsweek article mentions that there are several people named Satoshi Nakamoto
• No evidence that Dorian Nakamoto programs or has programmed
• The reporter tells a straightforwardly false narrative of when and why Bitcoin Satoshi left, which makes me think she's not honest in general
• Bitcoin Satoshi was privacy conscious from the beginning, as evidenced by using vistomail for his email address and registered bitcoin.org through a proxy
• The only writing sample of Dorian Nakamoto I've seen (an email about model trains) is a mismatch
• Dorian Nakamoto is old
• Dorian Nakamoto isn't wealthy

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  nNonzeroBytes++;
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The author of the Newsweek article had no idea what she was talking about. She claimed that a reference to the obsolete concept of "disc space" proved that the author of the white paper had to be old. Its a shameful hack job.

"I don't think he's in any trouble," I say. "I would like to ask him about Bitcoin. This man is Satoshi Nakamoto." "What?" The police officer balks. "This is the guy who created Bitcoin? It looks like he's living a pretty humble life."

Anyone else find it odd that a random cop knows who Satoshi is?

The reporter began with the very questionable assumption that Satoshi Nakamoto was his real name*. Because of this, it is less surprising that they found someone with that name and some resemblance to "The" Satoshi Nakamoto. 0.05.

* "It was only while scouring a database that contained the registration cards of naturalized U.S. citizens that a Satoshi Nakamoto turned up whose profile and background offered a potential match." -- It's possible from this sentence they were doing an unrelated search and just saw the name, but I doubt it.

"The man Newsweek claims is the founder of Bitcoin denies he had anything to do with the digital currency.

In an exclusive two-hour interview with The Associated Press Dorian S. Nakamoto, 64, said he had never heard of Bitcoin until his son told him he had been contacted by a reporter three weeks ago."

says AP

I think it is correct (>70%), but also unimportant (>95%). Even with a revealed identity, Satoshi remains reclusive and private, and I believe he will continue to avoid public recognition (>80%). This is purely from a few handfuls of background information beforehand, and then the article itself.

I am not sure where updating will come into this.

What predictions are we making? How will this bet (with ourselves) be resolved?

I mostly expect that I'll never know for sure. I think it's somewhat unlikely that this guy is (or was) a billionaire without showing it or anyone (including his family) knowing it.

Never mind