Call for volunteers: assessing Kurzweil, 2019
post by Stuart_Armstrong · 2020-04-02T12:07:57.246Z · LW · GW · 21 commentsContents
21 comments
EDIT: To help assessing, go here [LW · GW]. Cheers!
Many years ago, I helped organise an assessment of Kurzweil's predictions for 2009 [LW · GW], in his 1999 book "The Age of Spiritual Machines". The results were mixed - I feel he had a decent track record, but it was much worse than his own self-evaluation:
Following Gwern's suggestion [LW(p) · GW(p)], let's do the same for his 2019 predictions.
Since many people have extra time on their hands, for some odd reason, I'm asking for volunteers to do this assessment. You'll be getting a certain number of predictions (how many is up to you) and giving an assessment of their correctness on a five point scale of "True", "Weakly True", "Cannot Decide", "Weakly False", and "False".
So, add a comment here if you'd like to volunteer for this assessment, or know a person/group who might want to.
Cheers!
EDIT: I've now split Kurzweil's 2019 predictions into 105 separate individual predictions.
21 comments
Comments sorted by top scores.
comment by brunoparga · 2020-04-01T20:03:32.299Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Gwern has posted several of Kurzweil's predictions on Predictionbook and I have marked many of them as either right or wrong. In some cases I included comments on the bits of research I did.
comment by Chris Cooper (chris-cooper-1) · 2020-04-02T10:21:19.066Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
I'm guessing you want respondents to put in serious research - you're not looking for people's unreflective attitudes - sorry, intuitions?
Replies from: Stuart_Armstrong↑ comment by Stuart_Armstrong · 2020-04-08T14:30:14.811Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
I'm looking for people's intuitions on the meaning of the predictions (what was Kurzweil saying?). For most predictions, the research needed beyond that is small.
comment by Daniel Kokotajlo (daniel-kokotajlo) · 2020-04-01T13:28:02.156Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
I'd be happy to volunteer a bit. I don't have much time, but this sounds fun, so maybe I could do a few.
Replies from: Stuart_Armstrong↑ comment by Stuart_Armstrong · 2020-04-08T14:28:31.295Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Thanks! Now open at: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019 [LW · GW]
comment by Koen.Holtman · 2020-04-07T18:57:48.777Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
OK -- I'll do 20 to start.
Replies from: Stuart_Armstrong↑ comment by Stuart_Armstrong · 2020-04-08T14:32:19.007Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Thanks! Now open at: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019 [LW · GW]
comment by Douglas Summers-Stay (douglas-summers-stay) · 2020-04-04T16:20:59.850Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
I'll do ten.
Replies from: Stuart_Armstrong↑ comment by Stuart_Armstrong · 2020-04-08T14:32:53.785Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Thanks! Now open at: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019 [LW · GW]
comment by reallyeli · 2020-04-03T03:22:58.350Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
I'm interested — 10 please.
Replies from: Stuart_Armstrong↑ comment by Stuart_Armstrong · 2020-04-08T14:30:30.592Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Thanks! Now open at: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019 [LW · GW]
comment by jmh · 2020-04-02T14:54:47.679Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Time I have. Would also be willing to participate.
Replies from: Stuart_Armstrong↑ comment by Stuart_Armstrong · 2020-04-08T14:33:29.900Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Thanks! Now open at: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019 [LW · GW]
comment by nonlogic · 2020-04-02T07:07:14.938Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
I can help: 10 to start with!
Replies from: Stuart_Armstrong↑ comment by Stuart_Armstrong · 2020-04-08T14:34:46.319Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Thanks! Now open at: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019 [LW · GW]
comment by Orual · 2020-04-01T20:55:08.031Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
I've got time. I'm happy to validate predictions. Give me as many as you want.
Replies from: Stuart_Armstrong↑ comment by Stuart_Armstrong · 2020-04-08T14:36:53.897Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Thanks! Now open at: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019 [LW · GW]
comment by Julija Kobrinovich (julija-kobrinovich) · 2020-04-01T19:13:55.194Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
I'd be happy to help. 10 for start.
Replies from: Stuart_Armstrong↑ comment by Stuart_Armstrong · 2020-04-08T14:31:29.439Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Thanks! Now open at: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019 [LW · GW]
comment by Jsevillamol · 2020-04-01T14:25:40.684Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Sure sign me up, happy to do up to 10 for now, plausibly more later depending on how hard it turns out to be
Replies from: Stuart_Armstrong↑ comment by Stuart_Armstrong · 2020-04-08T14:29:12.436Z · LW(p) · GW(p)
Thanks! Now open at: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019 [LW · GW]