Call for volunteers: assessing Kurzweil, 2019

post by Stuart_Armstrong · 2020-04-02T12:07:57.246Z · LW · GW · 21 comments

EDIT: To help assessing, go here [LW · GW]. Cheers!

Many years ago, I helped organise an assessment of Kurzweil's predictions for 2009 [LW · GW], in his 1999 book "The Age of Spiritual Machines". The results were mixed - I feel he had a decent track record, but it was much worse than his own self-evaluation:

Following Gwern's suggestion [LW(p) · GW(p)], let's do the same for his 2019 predictions.

Since many people have extra time on their hands, for some odd reason, I'm asking for volunteers to do this assessment. You'll be getting a certain number of predictions (how many is up to you) and giving an assessment of their correctness on a five point scale of "True", "Weakly True", "Cannot Decide", "Weakly False", and "False".

So, add a comment here if you'd like to volunteer for this assessment, or know a person/group who might want to.

Cheers!

EDIT: I've now split Kurzweil's 2019 predictions into 105 separate individual predictions.

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