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If you have a Substack blog, consider using Datawrapper embeds for inserting tables or charts. For some reason Substack has been somewhat hiding this cool feature as its not visible in the menu and poorly advertised but it lets you create highly customizable charts/tables for your Substack posts - and is also supported on Wordpress or in the form of an HTML embed if you have a self-hosted blog/website. I wrote a brief guideline on how to use it in my blog - and you can see cool Datawrapper embeds in Nate Silver's substack.
Sadly Datawrapper not supported on LessWrong (yet) but LW already has native support for table embeds, so its less relevant.
Whatever happened to Lumina, btw? Was anyone able to see any changes in their dental health so far?
Side note: The original 'chickenpox bomber' illustration (using the Douglas F-4 Phantom) first appeared in Robert Ball's 1985 book "The Fundamentals of Aircraft Combat Survivability Analysis and Design", later refined in the 2nd edition from 2003. He never mentions Wald, Wallis or the SRG in the entire book, so I'm likewise convinced that the "mathematician outsmarts the military" story is pretty much BS.
Do you think this will have any impact on OpenAI's future revenues / ability to deliver frontier-level models?
Here’s the corrected link: https://pastebin.com/B824Hk8J
Are you running this from an EC2 instance or some other cloud provider? They might just have a blocklist in IPs belonging to data centers.
Thank you! Here's the transcript: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4kphivjxngJmEdWsN/transcript-tyler-cowen-on-stories
Sorry for not being clear. My question was whether LW really likes the nanobot story because we think it might happen within our own lifetimes. If we knew for a fact that human-destroying-nanobots would take another 100 years to develop, would discussing them still be just as interesting?
Side note: I don't think the "sci-fi bias" concept is super coherent in my head, I wrote this post as best as I can, but I fully acknowledge that its not fully fleshed out.
Hm, are you sure they're actually that protective against scrapers? I ran a quick script and was able to extract all 548 unique pages just fine: https://pastebin.com/B824Hk8J The final output was:
Status codes encountered:
200: 548
404: 20I reran it two more times, it still worked. I'm using a regular residential IP address, no fancy proxies. Maybe you're just missing the code to refresh the cookies (included in my script)? I'm probably missing something of course, just curious why the scraping seems to be easy enough from my machine?
They could but if you’re managing your firewall it’s easier to apply a blanket rule rather than trying to divide things by subdomain, unless you have a good reason to do otherwise. I wouldn’t assume malicious intent.
They do have a good reason to be wary of scrapers as they provide a free version of ChatGPT, I'm guessing they just went ahead and configured it over their entire domain name rather than restricting it to the chat subdomain.
Nanobots destroying all humans at once are indeed poor sci-fi. But how much of this story's popularity hinges on it happening within our lifetimes?
It's essential to my ability to enjoy life
This assumes that we'll never have the technology to change our brain's wiring to our liking? If we live in the post-scarcity utopia, why won't you be able to just go change who you are as a person so that you'll fully enjoy the new world?
I've watched the debate and read your analysis. The Youtube channel is great, doubly so given that you're just starting out and it will only get better from here.
Do you imagine there could be someone out there who could possibly persuade you to lower your P(doom)? In other words, do you think there could be a collection of arguments that are so convincing and powerful taken together that you'll change your mind significantly about the risks of AGI, at least when it comes to this century?
I've found a new box of Dexcom G7 on Ebay for just $90, ordered it now to try it out.
I've checked Nutrissense and they want $250/month? Definitely way too much for a glucose meter! :)
I've been doing weightlifting 5-6 days a week for 14 months now and progress has been very slow, so my metabolic rate hasn't budged all that much. But if you're lucky and can progress faster then its a valid strategy.
Thanks, looks like Dexcom Stelo is coming out this summer that will be available without a prescription. I'll order it as soon as its available.
What continuous glucose monitor do you recommend?
Let's say you did have a magical fentanyl-detection machine. Unfortunately it would still be quite useless due to the fact that numerous routes exist into the country that entirely bypass border control. Sure, you won't be able to bring truckloads of goods that way but with fentanyl all you need is a few pounds to supply the whole country for several weeks.
You don’t need to be more precise than 5 grams when measuring food so any scale will work. You also don’t need to measure low density foods like cucumbers or tomatoes - I would just enter a rough guesstimate into the app.
I’ll post an update in 4 more years, sure. Though me not gaining weight would obviously not prove much either way :-)
This doesn’t take away from the point your post makes but there’s a small nitpick: there’s no proof that Einstein actually said that. It appears to be one those tongue in cheek stories about Einstein, we don’t have a contemporary source quoting him on that.
We’re in the north-west corner of Stoup
Suggested discussion questions / ice breakers for today's meetup, assembled from ACX posts in the past 6 months. See you all in one hour :-)
- What was the most interesting question for you from the recent ACX survey?
- What do you think of the Coffeepocalypse argument in relation to AI risk?
- Do you agree with the Robin Hanson idea that (more) medicine doesn’t work?
- Do you like the “Ye Olde Bay Area House Party” series of posts?
- What do you think about the Lumina Probiotic? Are you planning to order it in the future?
- What’s your position on the COVID lab leak debate?
- Do you like prediction markets? What was a prediction you’ve made in the past year that you’re proud of?
- What book would you review for the ACX book review contest if you were to write one?
- Do you believe that capitalism is more effective than charity in solving world poverty?
- Which dictator did you find the most interesting from the “Dictator Book Club” series?
Looks like we’ll have a small reimbursement budget for this meetup so there will be free Chipotle (chicken or vegan) available to the first ~20 attendees.
If you have a bit of free time, we'd appreciate if you fill out the post-event survey: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSe8Lpqt-In6aIAtSlA9pWEgRUlwW2CbLzYogJhJ3KC7mkycVg/viewform
Thanks for coming! Please fill out a short survey if you have a moment: https://forms.gle/WDHS9Z2dvgoM7iCg9
Weather is nearly perfect, so the event is definitely happening today. I'll be wearing a black jacket and a grey shirt.
Follow up summer event is now live: https://www.lesswrong.com/events/zPw5WLaJ9f4QEfpyR/lw-acx-seattle-summer-meetup.
Points from this post I agree with:
- AGI will have at least 100x faster decision making speed for any given decision, compared to human decision making
- AGI will be able to interact with all 9 billion humans at once, in parallel, giving it a massive advantage
- Slow motion videos present a helpful analogy
My objection is primarily around the fact that having a 100x faster processing power wouldn't automatically allow you to do things 100x faster in the physical world:
- Any mechanical systems that you control won't be 100x faster due to limitations of how faster real-world mechanical parts will work. I.e. if you control a drone, you have to deal with the fact that the drone won't fly/rotate 100x faster just because your processing power is 100x faster. And you'll probably have to control the drone remotely because you wouldn't fit the entire AGI on the drone itself, placing a limit on how fast you can make decisions.
- Any operations where you rely on human action will run at 1x speed, even if you somewhat streamline them thanks to parallelization and superior decision making
- Being 100x faster is useless if you don't have full information on what the humans are doing/plotting. And they could hide pretty easily by meeting up offline with no electronics in place.
- Even "manipulating humans" is something that can be hard to do if you don't have a way to directly interact with the physical world. I.e. good luck manipulating the Ukrainian war zone from the Internet.
- But how will the AI get that confidence without trial & error?
You should make a separate post on "Can AGI just simulate the physical world?". Will make it easier to find and reference in the future.
"but with humanity being overwhelmed by the number of different kinds of attack."
But AGI will only be able to start carrying out these sneaky attacks once its fairly convinced it can survive without human help? Otherwise humans will notice the various problems propping up and might just decide to "burn all GPUs" which is currently an unimaginable act.. So AGI will have to act sneakily behind the scenes for a very long time. This is again coming back to the argument that humans have a strong upper hand as long as we've got monopoly on physical world manipulation.
People here shouldn't assume that, because Eliezer never posted a detailed analysis on LessWrong, everyone on the doomer train is starting from unreasonable premises regarding how robot building and research could function in practice.
I agree but unfortunately my Google-fu wasn't strong enough to find detailed prior explanations of AGI vs. robot research. I'm looking forward to your explanation.
Those are excellent comments! Do you mind if I add a few quotes from them to the post?
Physical space = did you like that the meetup was in Capitol Hill? (ignoring that it was at Optimism specifically)
Venue = did you like that the meetup was in Optimism Brewing? (ignoring that its located in Cap Hill)
Thank you for attending! The guessing jar count is... 1400. And the winner is Utna D / @regexkind with a guess of 1425. The median guess (excluding the 1 outlier) was 1374, which was remarkably close! The full data is here: https://tinyurl.com/4vdv346f
I wasn't able to find Utna/@regexkind's email or Facebook, so please reach out to me to claim your $50 prize!
And if you have a free minute, I'd appreciate if you could fill out a survey about the meetup: https://forms.gle/yZJQQTKJYSsKiB5XA. Responses will be shared with Scott Alexander and other meetup organizers, to help make the next one even better.