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I compared the Manifold forecasts with the community prediction on Metaculus and calculated a time-averaged Brier Score to score forecasts over time.
The so-called "nonsense" community prediction is still more accurate on average than Manifold for the same questions.
https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/15359/predictive-performance-on-metaculus-vs-manifold-markets/
+1
Never really got into VRChat, but I'd be happy to try a LW meetup there.
Artemis II has already been delayed to 2025, as of yesterday.
I agree about it having to fit on a single chip, but surely the neural net on-board would only have a relatively negligible impact on range compared to how much the electric motor consumes in motion?
I'd provide a counterexample analogy: speedruns.
Many high-level speedruns (and especially TAS runs) often look like some combination of completely stupid/insane/incomprehensible to casual players. Nevertheless, they work for the task they set out to do far more effectively than trying to beat the game quickly with "casual strats" would get you.
I think seeing a sufficiently smart AI doing stuff in the real world would converge to looking a lot like that from our POV.
Any particular reason you've linked all those tweets, but blocked general access to them? I'd probably be interested in reading some of those threads just going by the titles.
Hey, I'm an interested Lithuanian :)
Only saw your comment just now 2 months later, but I've sent you a DM.
Is there any GDP-like measure that does do a better job of capturing growth from major tech breakthroughs?
Advice for Smart People with Autism
Even if you never write this one (or any of the other ideas with "autis" in the title), I'd love a 1-3 sentence summary of your suggestions.
How long would you expect to be able to enjoy your newfound fortune in Google stock before death? I could maybe see an AGI starting to disassemble the planet before the stock even has a chance to rise all that much...
In the limit, the pessimists will eventually be correct. There's only so many technologies and improvements that can be made under the laws of physics (e.g. Landauer's limit), and once we hit those real limits, that'll be as good as it gets.
Of course, the catch that a lot of people might not realize is that a) we're at least centuries away from hitting said limits, even with aligned superintelligence, and b) those limits are far, far better than what we have and live with today.
Maybe not a normal blog post per se, but AI Impacts did a survey back in 2016 about when AIs would reach certain capabilities. Some narrow tasks have already passed their 10 or 50% median estimate dates and are arguably doable with 2022 technology.
They are: aesthetics, mental health, social capital, wealth, physical attractiveness, and niceness.
So if I'm below average on probably all of these (and extremely below average on at least mental health and social capital), is the right thing to do just to give up on dating for the foreseeable future?
I wonder how plausible it would be to develop some kind of tool that offers alterations to any message you leave online into something that has essentially the same meaning and content, but no longer possesses your "digital fingerprint".
Change the wording into something you're less likely to use, add or remove subtle details like, say, a double space after a period, randomized posting times, etc.
Metaculus predicts with ~75% probability that UBI will be implemented in at least one EU country.
Are there any good examples of useful or interesting sub-problems in AI Alignment that can actually be considered "solved"?