Posts

Don't punish yourself for bad luck 2020-06-24T21:52:37.045Z · score: 16 (8 votes)
Dietary Debates among the Fruit Gnomes 2020-06-03T14:09:15.561Z · score: 25 (10 votes)
Sherrinford's Shortform 2020-05-02T17:19:22.661Z · score: 3 (1 votes)
How to navigate through contradictory (health/fitness) advice? 2019-08-05T20:58:14.659Z · score: 18 (8 votes)
Is there a standard discussion of vegetarianism/veganism? 2018-12-30T20:22:33.330Z · score: 4 (5 votes)
Cargo Cult, Self-Improvement, and What to Do 2018-08-07T12:45:30.661Z · score: 18 (12 votes)

Comments

Comment by sherrinford on Sherrinford's Shortform · 2020-07-07T16:44:13.235Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Currently reading Fooled by Randomness, almost 20 years after it was published. By now I have read about a third of it. Up to now, it seems neither very insightful nor dense; all the insights (or observations) seem to be what you can read in the (relatively short) wikipedia article. It is also not extremely entertaining.

I wonder whether it was a revealing, revolutionary book back in the days, or whether it is different to people with a certain background (or lack thereof), such that my impression is, in some sense, biased. I also wonder whether the other books by Taleb are better, but given the praise that FbR seems to have received, I guess it is not likely that the Black Swan would be fundamentally different from FbR.

Comment by sherrinford on Don't punish yourself for bad luck · 2020-06-25T07:02:46.577Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Maybe I will have to edit the text to make that clearer, but: the optimal contract in the situation I described (moral hazard with binary states and effort levels) punishes only for bad luck, exactly because it makes the worker choose high effort. In this sense, once revenue is known, you also know that it is not the worker's fault that revenue is low. From an ex-ante perspective, it offers conditional wages that "would" punish for being lazy, however.

Comment by sherrinford on Karma fluctuations? · 2020-06-14T05:34:31.136Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I would like to add that I find politics important and found the pandemic posts mostly very useful and readable. But writing politics requires strong self-discipline if a rationalist standard of discussion should be maintained, in particular by readers who vote.

Comment by sherrinford on Karma fluctuations? · 2020-06-13T21:39:05.609Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

I like that you are trying to trying to make your approach to voting explicit.

I believe people will usually vote based on something like "Upvote if this is content represents what I think Lesswrong should be". It depends on the content of the post or the comment what this means exactly. In many cases it should mean whether a post or comment should contribute to truthfinding on a topic. This should imply, for example, that posts that contain empirical claims should contain some kind of empirical evidence, and that conclusions are valid. It also implies that the identity of the author should not be a reason for upvoting.

Compared to websites that do not have a voting-system, I see the disadvantage that anonymity of voting implies that you can judge things without giving and evaluating arguments. This does not matter very much as long as we are talking about content that is not very emotional. It matters when we are talking about politics; partisan fellow-feeling can then drive behavior.

(Personally, I get the impression that the pandemic situation has brought more politics to LW and that a certain kind of partisan voting has become more common, and I don't like this trend. But my sample is not yet large enough to form a good judgement.)

Comment by sherrinford on Sherrinford's Shortform · 2020-06-13T18:52:24.602Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · LW · GW

New results published in Cell suggest that Sars-Cov 2 gets into the body via the nasal mucosa and then gets into deep parts of the lung via body fluids, and possibly into the brain. A second part of the same study suggests that there may be a partial immunity against Sars-Cov 2 of people who had Sars or Mers. (Disclaimer: I only read a newspaper summary.)

Comment by sherrinford on For moderately well-resourced people in the US, how quickly will things go from "uncomfortable" to "too late to exit"? · 2020-06-12T18:56:47.560Z · score: 14 (8 votes) · LW · GW

Probably because I am not in the US, I do not exactly understand this. Who would be the people having to flee?

Comment by sherrinford on Covid-19 6/11: Bracing For a Second Wave · 2020-06-12T13:28:35.191Z · score: 0 (6 votes) · LW · GW

Thanks. Could you please provide a link to something showing that this is such a typical mode of thinking?

Comment by sherrinford on Covid-19 6/11: Bracing For a Second Wave · 2020-06-12T08:01:04.835Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

"What we can rule out is them causing a huge explosion on the spot, the same way most other photo opportunity social distance violations haven’t caused an explosion. That’s because the explosion expectation doesn’t take into account the scope of the actual violation, instead thinking of this as a failure to sacrifice to the gods. We have been wicked so of course the virus will strike us down as punishment. "

Who is the "we" here who seemingly had this expectation based on a religious model?

Comment by sherrinford on Open & Welcome Thread - June 2020 · 2020-06-11T18:05:35.146Z · score: 6 (4 votes) · LW · GW

Can someone please explain what the following sentence from the terms of use means? "In submitting User-Generated Content to the Website, you agree to waive all moral rights in or to your User-Generated Content across the world, whether you have or have not asserted moral rights."

Comment by sherrinford on Can Covid-19 spread by surface transmission? · 2020-06-11T18:02:45.194Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

While I agree that that is the way that the current mainstream opinion moved, I think we should not suggest that pre-symptomatic transmission and aerosol transmission or symptomatic and surface transmission are necessarily linked.

Comment by sherrinford on Open & Welcome Thread - June 2020 · 2020-06-09T13:08:40.413Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Is there a name for intuition/fallacy that an advanced AI or alien race must also be morally superior?

Comment by sherrinford on Open & Welcome Thread - June 2020 · 2020-06-09T13:08:09.258Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Hi, just as a note: https://www.lesswrong.com/allPosts?filter=curated&view=new looks really weird (which you get from googling for curated posts) because the shortform posts are not filtered out.

Comment by sherrinford on FHI paper on COVID-19 government countermeasures · 2020-06-08T14:43:17.778Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

So I guess I am lacking the necessary knowledge to understand " >95% posterior probability of being effective", and I have to ask: What are "credible intervals"? With a frequentist-econometrics background, my reaction is: What? Zero is in the intervals?

Comment by sherrinford on Estimating COVID-19 Mortality Rates · 2020-06-08T12:05:21.372Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

From your comment "But if you're trying to figure out what rough-and-ready multiplier to apply to the daily numbers reported in your area, then to use IFR estimates, you need to remember that reported cases are not the same as actual infections, and adjust accordingly." I still do not understand how you can translate CFR into the IFR that you really need. How do "adjust accordingly"?

Comment by sherrinford on Covid-19: My Current Model · 2020-06-06T17:10:41.934Z · score: 2 (4 votes) · LW · GW

I think I agree to all of what you say, except that I am unsure whether it is about what I wrote.

Comment by sherrinford on Covid-19: My Current Model · 2020-06-06T08:56:15.356Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Thank you very much, Ben. By and large, I think the summary is fine, but I think I would like to clarify the following things.

First, I am unsure about the "useful for most people to read" part. Obviously, many people like the essay, and I am not sure what makes political opinion essays "useful". Of course there will be many people who find it useful to link to the text. Similarly, I am unsure how timeless it is; if it makes a post timeless that it is exemplary for the political sentiment of lesswrong in June/May 2020, then sure this seems to be timeless (which you can see because it is curated). But I am negative about the explain vs persuade part. Admittedly, this essay may be characterized by a third category additional to these two, but I believe as a curated lesswrong post that is explicitly intended to be used as a reference, it will rather be used to persuade on politics without explaining.

Secondly, the WHO having an "inability to plan" sounds a bit different from "no ability to plan". In my understanding, the first is a matter of opinion, the second is absurd as a description of basically any organization. But maybe I am overinterpreting. I think I understand what Zvi is saying about sacrifices, though I am not really sure.

Comment by sherrinford on Covid-19: My Current Model · 2020-06-05T18:46:31.302Z · score: 7 (5 votes) · LW · GW

You disagree with both answers I could possibly, in your view, give to a question that you ask. But the hypothetical alternative you give is not the mirror image of Zvi's essay, nor is it the mirror image of what I referred to from Zvi's essay.

Zvi claims that governments are "lying liars" and they have "no ability to plan or physically reason". In the reasoning for your first disagreement possibility, you effectively say that your prior about any of Zvi's statements being right is high because you respect him and also because he properly defends some of the many statements he makes. By contrast, my own prior of the quality of Zvi's less political assessments in this text are lower because the statement that governments have "no ability to plan" is false. Concerning the WHO, Zvi's statement about the response to the pandemic is that it is "not that different" from "attacking, restraining and killing innocent people". This is far from my understanding of what governments or the WHO are doing. So my priors on other statements in the essay are not high after reading the politics sections, and this does not depend on the average person on the street's opinion, or on what Zvi writes in other texts.

I agree that LessWrong should not put much weight on popular opinion in evaluating arguments per se. Though depending on what you mean by your suggestion to be more curious about an unpopular view, I may disagree there. Unpopular views can very well be unpopular because they are wrong. The statement that the moon is made of toothpaste is unpopular for that reason. Of course, Zvi's essay is very popular on Lesswrong, though I would not say that that is sufficient to tell me whether what he states is right.

To my impression, Zvi is not just writing a curated essay that says the WHO should be dissolved, but actually makes many statements that go through on the nod for people that believe them in advance. However, I believe people who do not believe the statements in advance may not even understand them. But probably that is just me not understanding the text, so I'll just list examples of what I find confusing:

The "sacrifices to the gods" section is a description of a perceived behavior of ... whom? The government? People in general? Because all governments do the same, and all people obey (the rules by the government? the rules by society? I don't know what is implied here.)

Zvi implies that the "we" would not choose efficient action even if it could be easily identified ("If the action is efficient and actually were to solve the problem in a meaningful way, that would invalidate the whole operation."), which I find highly implausible, he states that people don't trust "the authorities" (which may be true, but who knows?), and seems to imply (again I don't know who "we" is) that governments or societies are only willing to "choose one individual intervention that solves our problems, rather than combining their effectiveness, because math is not a thing", while actually several countries have combined measures like e.g. masks and distance prescriptions.

Having explained in this whole section that the "we" does only stupid things (while "market forces" could do the good ones), in the next section (about governments) it is the "we" that is lied to by WHO etc. And then "It’s all they still have the ability to do. Almost no one with the ability to model the physical world, or who would care about the implications of their model if they did have one, has any power or authority at this point." Okay, I better don't question whether that is true, I guess it must be self-evident in dystopian America.

So I think a mirror image text may be one that asserts that "the WHO has done a reasonably good job and should have its funding increased because governments, the WHO and similar organizations exclusively and efficiently act based on science, evidence, and altruism". And yes I would be concerned about such a hypothetical curated essay.

So all of this is fine for a personal opinion essay. After all, Zvi says "This post is not making strong evidence-based arguments for these views. This is not that post. This is me getting all this out there, on the record, in a place one can reference." I just don't have the impression it's about "aim to explain". But ok, both of you know the idea of lesswrong much better than I do.

Comment by sherrinford on Covid-19: My Current Model · 2020-06-05T09:42:01.366Z · score: 7 (10 votes) · LW · GW

I am a bit worried about the fact that an essay that depicts "governments most places" as "lying liars with no ability to plan or physically reason" and, based on similar assessments, calls for the dissolution of the WHO while not providing evidence (as stated in the second paragraph) is considered "the best summary of all the key Covid updates to make over the last month or so".

Comment by sherrinford on Dietary Debates among the Fruit Gnomes · 2020-06-04T19:35:43.409Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I agree about the weird-optimum point, but I have to say I don't understand how lottery numbers can be a diet.

Comment by sherrinford on Sherrinford's Shortform · 2020-06-01T16:48:44.791Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

:-) Thanks. But I corrected it.

Comment by sherrinford on Sherrinford's Shortform · 2020-06-01T09:28:12.449Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

You would hope that people actually saw steelmanning as an ideal to follow. If that was ever true, the corona pandemic and the policy response seem to have killed the demand for this. It seems to become acceptable to attribute just any kind of seemingly-wrong behavior to either incredible stupidity or incredible malice, both proving that all institutions are completely broken.

Comment by sherrinford on LessWrong FAQ · 2020-05-31T09:45:26.397Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

You could add something about whether deleting posts or comments or renaming yourself is possible.

Comment by sherrinford on Should I self-variolate to COVID-19 · 2020-05-26T14:55:20.797Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I am a bit confused what kind of test Ben is referring to here. If this is about smear tests, RKI says that it may be possible to show evidence for an infection about 2-3 days before symptoms begin. However, medical professionals warn that it's not trivial to take the smear test and that therefore laypeople conclusions may lead to wrong negatives. If it's about blood antibody tests, there may be false positives because antibodies may those formed against other corona virus infections.

Comment by sherrinford on LessWrong FAQ · 2020-05-24T18:57:41.390Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

The old FAQ contains something about copyright. Is that still valid?

Comment by sherrinford on The Oil Crisis of 1973 · 2020-05-23T13:47:05.603Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

In "neoclassical synthesis" terms, an oil shock is an aggregate-supply (AS) shock. If the aggregate-demand (AD) curve does not move, then an AS curve implies lower real GDP and a higher price level, whereas an AD shock that causes a recession implies lower real GDP and a lower price level. This is very simplistic, but may be helpful in structuring thoughts.

Also, maybe this is helpful information:

"All but one of the 11 postwar recessions" in the USA "were associated with an increase in the price of oil..."(exception: 1960).
11 of the 12 major oil price shocks that Hamilton identifies were accompanied by U.S. recessions (exception: "2003 oil price increase associated with the Venezuelan unrest and second Persian Gulf War.")

(Hamilton, 2011, Historical Oil Shocks, NBER working paper 16790)

But of course this alone doesn't say much about causality or effects.

Comment by sherrinford on The Oil Crisis of 1973 · 2020-05-23T13:39:14.879Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

May I ask how you define "labor shortage"? I think an economist would interpret this as firms looking for workers but being unable to get them (for the current wage). Is that really what is currently happening?

Comment by sherrinford on Open & Welcome Thread—May 2020 · 2020-05-20T18:55:58.343Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Four German medical professional associations demand an almost complete opening of schools and preschools due to supposedly low risk of coronavirus spread among children: https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/bildung/corona-krise-mediziner-fordern-komplette-schul-und-kita-oeffnung-a-4d1a0336-680d-4259-818e-7a263732f811

Comment by sherrinford on Open & Welcome Thread—May 2020 · 2020-05-20T18:41:36.854Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

In a twitter thread, Muge Cevik discusses evidence on Corona virus transmission dynamics:

https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1257392347010215947

Comment by sherrinford on "Preparing for a Pandemic: Stage 3: Grow Food if You Can [COVID-19, hort, US, Patreon]" · 2020-05-19T06:17:02.880Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

1.5 months later, how are food supply chains doing in the US? Asking from Germany where initial pasta scarcity (for household size packages) has disappeared.

Comment by sherrinford on Boring Advice Repository · 2020-05-16T10:50:45.721Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

It may be worthwhile figuring out how to minimize the disadvantages of smartphones.

Comment by sherrinford on Open & Welcome Thread—May 2020 · 2020-05-11T12:09:39.068Z · score: 9 (5 votes) · LW · GW

There is a study reconstructing how Coronavirus spread in Austria (link to German summary article on Spiegel Online). The researchers found not a single infection cluster in schools or Kindergarten, and not a single case where a child was the source of infection in a family. The conclusions of the study include (short version of the points listed in the article I am linking to):

  • people infect others before (they realize) they have symptoms,
  • infection takes place within few days after infection (3 to 5 days),
  • transmission happens when several people are at the same place for a longer timespan (about 15 minutes),
  • for most clusters, point expositions were found: one person is at the beginning of the chain, and there are more infections when that person has contact to other persons for a longer timespan (probably they mean the 15 minutes from the previous point)
  • quarantine measures and barriers work,
  • there are currently no transmission chains that would give evidence to transmission via public transport or visiting a shop.
Comment by sherrinford on April Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-04-19T10:46:06.908Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Swiss cardiologist Nils Kucher is going to start a study to check whether blood thinners help covid-19 patients, suspecting that lung embolisms play a role in hospitalization and mortality. (https://www.n-tv.de/wissen/Helfen-Blutverduenner-bei-Corona-Infektion-article21722726.html)

Comment by sherrinford on April Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-04-18T09:17:54.812Z · score: 2 (2 votes) · LW · GW

Ok, a question of which I assume that people here can quickly provide the answer:

How certain are we that age groups with low likelihood of developing symptoms - in particular, children - are actually infectious? Sure, there is asymptomatic spread in general, but I guess being asymptomatic also correlates with the ability to quickly kill the virus and thus not transfer it to others. So the first question is HOW infectious are people who are and stay asymptomatic? Is there good evidence on this?

Comment by sherrinford on April Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-04-07T21:27:33.626Z · score: 12 (4 votes) · LW · GW

Some points from an interview with virologist Hendrik Streeck who is leading a systematic study in the German town of Gangelt in the county of Heinsberg, one of the epicenters of Corona in Germany (https://www.zeit.de/wissen/gesundheit/2020-04/hendrik-streeck-covid-19-heinsberg-symptome-infektionsschutz-massnahmen-studie/komplettansicht, ZEIT online, April 6, interviewed by Jakob Simmank and Florian Schumann):

  • The team is testing, for the first time, a representative sample (1,000 from 500 households) for Germany on whether they are infected with Corona virus (smear test and antibody blood test).
  • There was a famous carnival event in Heinsberg and in Germany it is kind of common knowledge by now that the large outbreak in Heinsberg can be traced back to that event. In the study, people were asked whether they attended that event, whether they had pre-existing conditions or take any medications; and all participants of that event were finally tested, and the researchers are reconstructing who sat next to whom and talked to whom. People had assumed that infection had spread via insufficiently clean draft-beer glasses; this seems to be wrong, most people had bottled beer. Moreover, people got ill a day or so after the event, which does not fit the incubation time. There is a school nearby in which seemingly almost all pupils and parents were ill in January. These people are now tested for antibodies.
  • In February, during the initial breakout in Heinsberg, the homes/apartments/houses of infected people where tested, and this is now done for newly infected as well. This includes taking air samples and samples from remote controls and door knobs. Up to now: 70 households, but they are planning for a larger sample.
  • They found viruses on things or door knobs and (once) in toilet water when somebody had diarrhea, but not once did the researchers succeed in breeding intact viruses from these samples. This suggests that most people are not infected via surface viruses.
  • The team had been among the first to find loss of taste and smell as a symptom. Now the data shows that about a third of patients have diarrhea, sometimes for several days, which is more than was assumed. Moreover, Streeck says his team heard from somewhere else several times (but not yet found in their own samples) that people report of deafness and dizziness. He says that these are things nobody originally paid attention to because they do not fit a respiratory disease. The interviewers note that it fits reports of headache and other nerve-system symptoms including findings of brain damage in the case of deceased patients (https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/10.1148/radiol.2020201187). Streeck notes that Sars-CoV-2 is a surprising virus and mentions a two-phase pattern (pharynx first, lung later). He also mentions that authors of another study found the virus in blood samples, while the Heinsberg researchers did not find that among their 70-person sample (and that it could be possible that the virus only enters the blood in severe cases, but not the mild ones).
  • Both from Heinsberg and from other cases, Streeck states that infection mostly seems to happen via relatively close contact (he mentions that transmisisons of/via haircutters, taxidrivers etc did NOT seem to happen in one famous and well-researched case in Munich, but that basically the whole network of infection can be often be reconstructed).
  • He notes that sitting in your apartment and not getting any sun is bad for your immune system, and curfew-like restrictions and behavioral recommendations should be more evidence-based.
Comment by sherrinford on April Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-04-03T10:50:21.752Z · score: 9 (6 votes) · LW · GW

Summarizing an article on gloves: https://www.n-tv.de/panorama/Einweghandschuhe-so-wichtig-wie-Masken-article21689035.html (April 2)


First, about virus survival on surfaces in general:

Germany's (kind of celebrity) virologist Christian Drosten's (Berliner Charité hospital) opinion on the study about survival rates of Sars-CoV-2 on surfaces and the possibility of smear infection:

He hypothesizes that for the experiment, dass für den Versuch Viruses in a larger drop were put on the surface, and even though in this way you can verify infectiosity even after hours, probably only very few viruses survived. On fingers, the amount of viruses decreases further and gets into contact with the acidic milieu of the skin, and it is unclear whether anything remains; similarly simple experiments cannot simulate that. The German federal institute for risk assessment states that it currently does not know of Sars-CoV-2 infections via touching surfaces.

Note that I neither checked the statements cited, nor the sources; this is simply a translation and summary of a paragraph from the article. Starting from this, the article writes about disposable gloves.

The article states that gloves are of course considerable but that you of course should not touch your face with the gloves, and that it should also be considered that Sars-CoV-2 viruses seem to survive longer on plastics etc than on skin, that also bacteria thrive on gloves more than on hands and gloves distribute them more than hands do. Moreover, if you wear them for a longer time, the skin sweats and swells, which opens an entry to the body for viruses and bacteria. Finally, taking the gloves off without touching them is not as easy as you might think, and disposing them should of course be done properly, some people just leave them in the shopping cart.

The article basically recommends to prefer washing your hands and not touching your face over using disposable gloves. It also kind of suggests that gloves can be the opposite of face masks in one sense: Simple face masks do protect other people, while gloves may even make matters for other people worse.

Comment by sherrinford on April Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-04-01T07:16:27.088Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

So how much of the differences between the Bay Area and NY do you attribute to a difference in government action?

Comment by sherrinford on Reasons why coronavirus mortality of young adults may be underestimated. · 2020-03-16T21:54:37.486Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Sorry but I do not see where older people having higher fatality when medicine fails leads to bias in the diamond princess data that would fit what you asked for in the original post. Please explain.

Comment by sherrinford on Reasons why coronavirus mortality of young adults may be underestimated. · 2020-03-16T19:20:34.375Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

I would edit this to reflect the comments below, but somehow my words get deleted after typing.

Comment by sherrinford on Reasons why coronavirus mortality of young adults may be underestimated. · 2020-03-16T19:19:03.161Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Ok, thank you. I added the word "estimated" above, but now I guess I still misunderstood what they were reporting in table 2 then.

Comment by sherrinford on Reasons why coronavirus mortality of young adults may be underestimated. · 2020-03-16T18:59:01.810Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

The study is relevant because it aims to control for the age distribution, but of course if data is biased you never know completely. That everybody got perfect health care should also apply to all age groups, shouldn't it?

Comment by sherrinford on Reasons why coronavirus mortality of young adults may be underestimated. · 2020-03-16T13:59:56.516Z · score: 2 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Based on the Diamond Princess data, the case fatality ratio was estimated be 1.9-2.3% for all age groups, and 14-18% for people aged 70 or older, and seemingly around 0.2% for people up to age 39 (https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/diamond_cruise_cfr_estimates.html?fbclid=IwAR12StTC_CnjEWf2nGkw0b9tqEuh6kZ_qeEMXetM_cAHoZW3E0-yAchk66A). The infection fatality rate was estimated to b about 50% of the case fatality rate. I assume this isolated-people data may be helpful.

Comment by sherrinford on March Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-03-12T20:37:33.090Z · score: 4 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Here is a summary of an ebook about the economics of the Coronavirus:

http://conversableeconomist.blogspot.com/2020/03/some-coronavirus-economics.html

It also contains this figure:

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OZM_DUZq8eI/Xmj2kbpt57I/AAAAAAAAKQ4/Viik1kZDuZEalcQ2zP-yKYVgwcbh1kgZgCLcBGAsYHQ/s400/coronavirus%2B1.jpg

Comment by sherrinford on March Coronavirus Open Thread · 2020-03-11T22:21:34.351Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

My impression is that some Fermi estimate approaches assume that exponential growth indeed goes on until it hits the wall of 100%. Exponential growth is represented by ds/s = x, where s is the stock (here of infected people) and x is a constant. To my intuition, logistic growth ds/s = y (1-s) is almost as simple and it has the feature of a built-in limit. Of course both models imply 100% infection rates, but the second one asymptotically. The logistic model in this specification has highest absolute growth when 50% are infected, then lower (but still positive) growth because, e.g., infected people meet more who already infected.

Sorry if this is already common knowledge.

Comment by sherrinford on Toby Ord’s ‘The Precipice’ is published! · 2020-03-11T20:45:37.321Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Does an epub version exist?

Comment by sherrinford on Multi-belled Brass · 2019-10-25T10:20:54.541Z · score: 3 (2 votes) · LW · GW

The word Schalmei can mean some different things:

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schalmei_(Begriffskl%C3%A4rung)

The kind of brass instrument you refer to is also called Martinstrompete, see https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martinstrompete and https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Folgetonhorn#Martin-Horn/Martinshorn (In German, "Martinshorn" is also the word for the sound-making thing in fire engines, and yes that is technically related.)

Comment by sherrinford on CPH meetup 11/04/19 · 2019-10-24T07:53:27.634Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Just a suggestion from someone who is only indirectly affected.


It would be helpful to add the city name in the title, because then I can better filter relevant posts in the RSS reader. (Also, I don't know what CPH means, and I would suggest not to let tinyurl first direct to facebook and link back to lesswrong from there, why not directly let tinyurl link to lesswrong...)

Comment by sherrinford on Unstriving · 2019-08-19T22:08:53.476Z · score: 5 (4 votes) · LW · GW

I think that this is the best Putanumonit post I read.

Comment by sherrinford on Is there a standard discussion of vegetarianism/veganism? · 2019-08-09T09:52:21.210Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

A related question came to my mind, but for the moment I will just add it to this thread and see whether people find it. So:

What is the best steelmanned case for eating animals you know, in particular the best ethical argument?

Comment by sherrinford on Open Thread July 2019 · 2019-07-29T20:16:03.399Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Thanks!

Comment by sherrinford on Open Thread July 2019 · 2019-07-23T06:08:54.106Z · score: 5 (3 votes) · LW · GW

Is there exactly one RSS feed of lesswrong.com, i.e. https://www.lesswrong.com/feed.xml ? As I know too little about the technical side, is it easily possible for you to add different RSS feeds?