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If anyone wants to try this on llama-3 7b, I converted the collab to baukit, and it's available here.
the-gears-to-ascension on Some Experiments I'd Like Someone To Try With An AmnesicFor those who don't get the joke: benzos are depressants, and will (temporarily) significantly reduce your cognitive function if you take enough to have amnesia.
this might not make john's idea pointless, if the tested interventions's effect on cognitive performance still correlates strongly with sober performance. but there may be some interventions whose main effect is to offset benzos effects whose usefulness does not generalize to sober.
thomas-kwa on Thomas Kwa's ShortformThe Brownian motion assumption is rather strong but not required for the conclusion. Consider the stock market, which famously has heavy-tailed, bursty returns. It happens all the time for the S&P 500 to move 1% in a week, but a 10% move in a week only happens a couple of times per decade. I would guess (and we can check) that most weeks have >0.6x of the average per-week variance of the market, which causes the median weekly absolute return to be well over half of what it would be if the market were Brownian motion with the same long-term variance.
Also, Lawrence tells me that in Tetlock's studies, superforecasters tend to make updates of 1-2% every week, which actually improves their accuracy.
redman on My hour of memoryless lucidityClive Wearing's story might be interesting to you: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=k_P7Y0-wgos&feature=youtu.be
redman on Some Experiments I'd Like Someone To Try With An AmnesicO man, wait until you discover nmda antagonists and anti-cholinergics. There are trip reports on erowid from people who took drugs with amnesia as a side effect so...happy reading I guess?
I'm going to summarize this post with "Can one of you take an online IQ test after dropping a ton of benzos and report back? Please do this several times, for science."
Not the stupidest or most harmful 'lets get high and...' suggestion, but I can absolutely assure you that if trying this leads you into the care of a medical or law enforcement professional, they will likely say something to the effect of 'so the test told you that you were retarded right?' In response to this, you, with bright naive eyes, should say 'HOW DID YOU KNOW?!' as earnestly as you can. You might be able to make a run for it while they're laughing.
tailcalled on Some Experiments I'd Like Someone To Try With An AmnesicI think this is a really interesting idea, but I'm not comfortable enough with drugs to test it myself. If anyone is doing this and wants psychometric advice, though, I am offering to join your project.
thomas-kwa on Thomas Kwa's ShortformI talked about this with Lawrence, and we both agree on the following:
I think the proposed method could still work though. A substantial fraction of the pseudorandomness may be consistent on the individual person level.
The type of pseudorandomness you describe here ought to be independent at the level of individual items, so it ought to be part of the least-reliable variance component (not part of the general trait measured and not stable over time). It's possible to use statistics to estimate how big an effect it has on the scores, and it's possible to drive it arbitrarily far down in effect simply by making the test longer.
ruby on Now THIS is forecasting: understanding Epoch’s Direct ApproachThe title is strong with this one. I like it.
adamzerner on adamzerner's ShortformI wish there were more discussion posts on LessWrong.
Right now it feels like it weakly if not moderately violates some sort of cultural norm to publish a discussion post (similar but to a lesser extent on the Shortform). Something low effort of the form "X is a topic I'd like to discuss. A, B and C are a few initial thoughts I have about it. Thoughts?"
It seems to me like something we should encourage though. Here's how I'm thinking about it. Such "discussion posts" currently happen informally in social circles. Maybe you'll text a friend. Maybe you'll bring it up at a meetup. Maybe you'll post about it in a private Slack group.
But if it's appropriate in those contexts, why shouldn't it be appropriate on LessWrong? Why not benefit from having it be visible to more people? The more eyes you get on it, the better the chance someone has something helpful, insightful, or just generally useful to contribute.
The big downside I see is that it would screw up the post feed. Like when you go to lesswrong.com and see the list of posts, you don't want that list to have a bunch of low quality discussion posts you're not interested in. You don't want to spend time and energy sifting through the noise to find the signal.
But this is easily solved with filters. Authors could mark/categorize/tag their posts as being a low-effort discussion post, and people who don't want to see such posts in their feed can apply a filter to filter these discussion posts out.
Context: I was listening to the Bayesian Conspiracy podcast's episode on LessOnline. Hearing them talk about the sorts of discussions they envision happening there made me think about why that sort of thing doesn't happen more on LessWrong. Like, whatever you'd say to the group of people you're hanging out with at LessOnline, why not publish a quick discussion post about it on LessWrong?