Disasters

There is another type of disaster that is not mentioned: war.

Not nuclear war, but more or less "ordinary", or civil war.

I think, that most of those who read Less Wrong believe that civil war or neighboring country invasion is highly improbable for their countries, and that the chances of a nuclear strike are even higher.

I live in Eastern Ukraine, and when in 2014 the war began, it was a complete surprise and shock for everyone.

I live in the region adjacent to those where military operations are ongoing, and in 2014-2015 the question of preparing for some kind of emergency actions in case the war reaches us has become practical, not theoretical. My own plans (fortunately, the need to implement them did not arise) and communication with refugees showed that the most important are:

• Car (old and reliable, because a new one will be confiscated) and gasoline supply
• cash
• friends or relatives (with whom you have a good relationship) who live in other cities or countries and are ready to help you start living in a new place
• warm clothes for the whole family.
• "alarm package" with documents and medicines.

And it is extremely important:

• surround yourself with attentive, adequate and strong people. My first plan included a series of arrangements with friends who were also involved in martial arts. (In fact, all the agreements and the Plan began as a strategic game about what to do if zombies attack we played several years before.)
• do not become attached: to home, things and work. Do not buy real estate as main investment in your future.

The Wirecutter guides, although also affiliate-financed, are good, too:

• https://thewirecutter.com/reviews/emergency-preparedness/
• https://thewirecutter.com/reviews/best-gear-for-your-bug-out-bag/

I think I have enough food (non-perishables and some emergency rations) and water (from hot water heater and a survival water filter) to last two weeks, but not if neighbors start knocking on my door. Not sure what to do about that.

What is the "total cost of ownership" of supplies? keeping a stockpile fresh requires ongoing maintenance. In addition to direct cost and space required, you regularly have to devote time and attention to it. It just doesn't seem practical, specially a large supply of fresh water.

An additional cost is the hassle of moving/selling/giving away your stockpile if you move. If you have deep roots in the place you live, this might not be a large consideration, but I've moved at least once every 6 years all my life, some times considerably more often (future projection: even more often). "Unnecessary" stuff like this just adds an extra burden to an already burdensome time.

How would you say the value of having supplies changes as you reduce from 14 days to something smaller? It's non-linear for sure, so maybe there's a lower point that's a good compromise, e.g. 3 days of food and water. Another way of phrasing the question: where does the "two weeks" reference point in your post come from?

Just curious, how much would you be willing to pay for a mail-based, yearly subscription to a service that takes care of the more onerous things you mentioned: planning, logistics, rotation; one that ensures you always have a one-week supply of essentials available (something to eat, medical, charger, etc) and manages their disposal (reuse and recycle) and refreshing on a regular basis?

I'm sure it's not necessary to have entire populations be prepared as long as enough individuals can help the rest (like the example of a neighbor with a pool), so I'm wondering how low the barrier for preparation needs to be to reach that amount of people, in monetary terms.

I am a uni student from Scotland. At home, I have been snowed in for a few days. There, there would be enough food to last 2 weeks. If we got really desperate, there are always hens, and around a sack of grain in the garden. It probably wouldn't come to that, as there are large supplies of dried, tinned and frozen food, and of course sugar flour jam ect. This isn't a disaster prep, it just makes sense to keep a stockpile of long lasting food when you have plenty of storage space, and the shops are several miles away. There is also a stream for water and refrigeration if needed, and a ton of firewood, and trees and tools if we need more ect. All in all, a pretty good place to hole up.

At uni on the other hand, I have a small room rented for a year. Everything I want has to fit into the room, and has to be removed in the summer. There the calculations for somewhat, but not very useful items is different. Besides, the area is not known for hurricanes, wildfires or earthquakes. Rich first world governments tend to do things like dropping food in by helicopter if they really have to.

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