Kelsey Piper's recent interview of SBF

post by agucova · 2022-11-16T20:30:35.901Z · LW · GW · 29 comments

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29 comments

29 comments

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comment by Dave Orr (dave-orr) · 2022-11-16T21:44:37.856Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

To add to the list of wtfs of recent SBF behavior: giving that interview. His lawyers must hate him.

Replies from: lc
comment by lc · 2022-11-17T09:01:41.252Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Dude is going to prison for life. I can't believe how many rationalists are out here suggesting he's gonna just walk away from this "because he's a democratic donor". Sam is sounding and acting like a megalomaniac to the point of being mentally ill. One wonders if he even realizes he's going to be criminally charged regardless of the outcome of his "fundraising".

Replies from: Slider
comment by Slider · 2022-11-17T09:17:40.593Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

So is it prison or not guilty by reason of insanity?

Replies from: lc
comment by lc · 2022-11-17T09:22:33.816Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

SBF is not insane according to the U.S. justice system. In order to be found not guilty by reason of insanity your lawyers have to prove you were so whacked out of your mind you didn't realize you were breaking the law. Sam and his gang of thieves clearly did, because they took many deliberate actions to hide the fraud.

Making poor judgement calls because you're a megalomaniac is not grounds for a defense. If it were, that'd be a huge problem, because most people that commit massive crimes like these are not entirely sane.

Sam will either plea, or be convicted of massive fraud and spend the rest of his life in genpop. Given how irrational this man appears to be I wouldn't be surprised if he rejects a perfectly good plea deal (read: anything less than LWOP) against the advice of his lawyers and then gets sentenced to life anyways Ross Ulbricht style.

Replies from: Slider
comment by Slider · 2022-11-17T10:15:07.470Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I dislike using "moral outrage" connotations of words like fraudster and narcissist and especially dislike when that get mixed up on what the words technically mean. Face prettyness and demeanor should not be (atleast decisive) factors in law consequences. Thus in law context it is proper to be blind to it. On the social rumor mill side attaching proper meaning and context is more on scope.

On "social sane person" scale fraudster and megalomaniac are very alike. On "lawful citizen" scale fraudster and megalomaniac are very unlike.

Because of confusions like these it is sometimes possible to play social class recognition tennis where the frame from where an act is percieved impacts how it is processed. This person might be trying to act and angle for the situation to be processed as a normal market trust let down event and away from being a crime. While it is not part of the ideal on how things are supposed to work playing even to jury members hearthstring over law technicalities is a real course of action that happens. The kind of speech that likens fraudster and megalomanian works in the paradigm of pulling hearthstring in the direction of hate. So while in the "sympathy vs punishment" paradigm it might result in the "correct" bin, in the "audience reaction vs mechanistic consequences for actions" it plays to the wrong murky bin. "audience reaction speech" might therefore inadvertly help the effort to have the perperator choose a convenient frame.

A defence of the mental state being dominated by chemical influence of stimulants might use the non-damning behavioural aspects as evidence that the overall behaviour comes from a chemical source rather than unidentified psychological sources. Manicness in this context would be excusatory (with possibly admitting "trading under the influence" in the same go). I think I disagree here on whether megalomania is categorically irrelevant for defence.

That the non-punishment of mental institution is worse than actual punishments is pretty backwards. Medical care being adequate bad outcome for a hated person seems a very ablist attitude (I guess it is consistent with treating "mentally ill" as a label to direct hate).

Replies from: lc
comment by lc · 2022-11-17T11:32:45.513Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

That the non-punishment of mental institution is worse than actual punishments is pretty backwards. Medical care being adequate bad outcome for a hated person seems a very ablist attitude.

I'm explaining to you how it is. Ableism has nothing to do with it. Being a sane person in a psychiatric facility for criminals found legally insane, in the society we're in, is a really terrible outcome. Most would rather be in regular prison.

Doesn't really matter though, because Sam isn't getting found legally insane. Just isn't how the law works. If we recognized standard Dark Triad traits motivating criminality as grounds for reduced sentences, large portions of the justice system would have to be reconfigured.

I dislike using "moral outrage" connotations of words like fraudster and narcissist and especially dislike when that get mixed up on what the words technically mean. Face prettyness and demeanor should not be (atleast decisive) factors in law consequences. Thus in law context it is proper to be blind to it. On the social rumor mill side attaching proper meaning and context is more on scope.

On "social sane person" scale fraudster and megalomaniac are very alike. On "lawful citizen" scale fraudster and megalomaniac are very unlike.

Because of confusions like these it is sometimes possible to play social class recognition tennis where the frame from where an act is percieved impacts how it is processed. This person might be trying to act and angle for the situation to be processed as a normal market trust let down event and away from being a crime. While it is not part of the ideal on how things are supposed to work playing even to jury members hearthstring over law technicalities is a real course of action that happens. The kind of speech that likens fraudster and megalomanian works in the paradigm of pulling hearthstring in the direction of hate. So while in the "sympathy vs punishment" paradigm it might result in the "correct" bin, in the "audience reaction vs mechanistic consequences for actions" it plays to the wrong murky bin. "audience reaction speech" might therefore inadvertly help the effort to have the perperator choose a convenient frame.

A defence of the mental state being dominated by chemical influence of stimulants might use the non-damning behavioural aspects as evidence that the overall behaviour comes from a chemical source rather than unidentified psychological sources. Manicness in this context would be excusatory (with possibly admitting "trading under the influence" in the same go). I think I disagree here on whether megalomania is categorically irrelevant for defence.

Unfortunately for Sam the law is pretty clear here on what kind of time he's expected to do given the size of the fraud. It's not up to the judge if a jury votes him guilty, and a jury is very probably not going to nullify this crime, so there just doesn't seem to be the axis of leeway you suggest here. A prosecutor might decline to charge him, or attempt to convince the judge to give him a sweetheart plea deal, but in practice this seems unlikely.

Replies from: Slider
comment by Slider · 2022-11-17T11:48:58.722Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I kinda agree how the law works. So in 

Sam is sounding and acting like a megalomaniac to the point of being mentally ill.

I currently understand that this meant only to say disapproval and social disparagement and has nothing to do with megalomania, mania or mental illness despite using words that ordinarily refer to those.

Replies from: lc
comment by lc · 2022-11-17T11:58:37.276Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I guess you could say that's an ableist comment. What I mean is more "he is traditionally sociopathic to the point that it is causing him to make grave mistakes such as steal billions of dollars and then go freely talk to journalists afterwards." You could make an argument that this is impairing his judgement to the point of mental illness, but then you can make an argument that Hitler was similarly mentally ill. Either way I have little sympathy.

comment by ponkaloupe · 2022-11-16T23:42:52.986Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

at the end of this article the interviewer clarifies that she verified this to be SBF, but does not clarify that SBF understood this conversation to be public (which suggests he may not have). hoping for some clarification there, because it’s relevant to understanding the broader ethical context in which this is all playing out under.

Replies from: richard-yannow-1, david-johnston, kieuk
comment by Richard Yannow (richard-yannow-1) · 2022-11-17T00:32:31.339Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Sam has since tweeted "25) Last night I talked to a friend of mine. They published my messages. Those were not intended to be public, but I guess they are now."

His claims are hard to believe. Kelsey is very well-known as a journalist in EA circles. She says she interviewed him for a piece in May. Before Sam's tweet, she made a point of saying that she avoids secretly pulling "but I never said it would be off-the-record, you just asked for that" shenanigans. She confirmed the conversation with an email from her work account. She disputes the "friend" claim, and says they've never had any communication in any platform she can find, other than the aforementioned interview.

The only explanations that make sense to me are:

  • Sam expected Kelsey's coverage to be more favorable and is now regretting his conversation
  • Sam has been under so much stress that even the incredibly obvious fact that this was a professional interview was something he failed to realize
  • Sam is just lying here, perhaps after hearing from his lawyers about how dumb the interview was 
Replies from: Benito
comment by Ben Pace (Benito) · 2022-11-17T04:03:45.918Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

The other reason for Sam to be lying would be so that he can lead people to believe the answers are genuine.

comment by David Johnston (david-johnston) · 2022-11-17T00:29:50.201Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

According to his twitter, he didn't expect it to be published, but given that he was speaking to a journalist whose last interaction with him was an interview, given how many people obviously want to understand what just happened, given how many journalists must have tried to contact him, and given that (according to Kelsey) no indication was offered that this conversation would not be published, this is an absurd expectation.

comment by Ilverin the Stupid and Offensive (Ilverin) · 2022-11-16T23:04:32.405Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Someone on sneerclub said that he is falling on his sword to protect EA's reputation, I don't have a good counterargument to that.

This conversation won't go over well in court, so if he is selfish, then this conversation probably reflects mental instability.

Replies from: AlexMennen, Nanda Ale, Benito
comment by AlexMennen · 2022-11-17T06:59:54.697Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

The idea that he was trying to distance himself from EA to protect EA doesn't hold together because he didn't actually distance himself from EA at all in that interview. He said ethics is fake, but it was clear from context that he meant ordinary ethics, not utilitarianism.

Replies from: mr-hire
comment by Matt Goldenberg (mr-hire) · 2022-11-17T12:28:13.442Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I don't think it's all that clear, there are reasonable interpretations where he's saying that he simply cared about winning as in making money, and it's possible he was trying to unambiguously lean into that narrative but did so poorly.

Replies from: ChristianKl
comment by ChristianKl · 2022-11-17T15:00:16.415Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

In the interview, he explains what he means by saying ethics is fake by essentially saying "win + clean" is just as good as "win + shady".

The difference between clean and shady is one of normal ethics not of EA ethics.

winning as in making money

Money is worth the thing that you are intending to buy with it. It seems like he wanted to spend his largely to fund EA causes and nothing in the recent episode suggests he changed his mind on that.

Replies from: mr-hire, lc
comment by Matt Goldenberg (mr-hire) · 2022-11-17T17:23:52.273Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Yes, but without defining winning it's not clear that it had anything to do with EA

comment by lc · 2022-11-17T15:19:57.437Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

The revelation that he spent maybe 10x as much on villas for his girlfriends as EA cause areas suggests he may have changed his mind on that. I don't know why people are so quick to take the word of billionaires who "pledge" a bunch of money to EA in the future "when their market cap increases", as the same as actually donating money.

Replies from: ChristianKl, AlexMennen
comment by ChristianKl · 2022-11-17T16:56:41.908Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

The revelation that he spent maybe 10x as much on villas for his girlfriends as EA cause areas

Link?

comment by AlexMennen · 2022-11-17T16:50:55.013Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

The revelation that he spent maybe 10x as much on villas for his girlfriends as EA cause areas

Source?

comment by Nanda Ale · 2022-11-17T17:06:48.048Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Someone on sneerclub said that he is falling on his sword to protect EA's reputation, I don't have a good counterargument to that.

 

I see a lot of the EA discussion is worried about the public consequences of SBF using EA to justify bad behavior. What if people unfairly conclude EA ideas corrupt people's thinking and turn them into SBF-alikes? And some concern that EA genuinely could do this.

If you think that is the big danger then I understand how you might conclude SBF saying "I never believed the EA stuff, it was all an act." is better for EA. Valid thing to worry about (especially about your own thinking), but it's online rationalists who are worried about this. Looking at this as an outsider, this is missing the forest for the trees. 

Much of the public starts from the assumption that rich people giving to charities is all a big scam, generally. Just a means to enrich or empower themselves. EA's biggest donor admitting it was a scam along is not protecting EA, it's confirming this model in everyone's minds. They knew it all along! Every future EA donator will be trivially pattern matched to have the same motives as SBF.

I enjoy reading discussions on EAs role in sub optimal Kelly bet size conclusions. But big picture that is not the the biggest danger by far.

comment by Ben Pace (Benito) · 2022-11-17T19:27:58.867Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I'm not trying to be rude, but if you can't see a perspective from which that is nonsensical, then perhaps you are not strong enough in the relevant way to read what bullies say about those that they hate.

Replies from: quintin-pope, pktechgirl
comment by Quintin Pope (quintin-pope) · 2022-11-17T21:12:37.258Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Strongly downvoted for two reasons:

  • I think you should be far more hesitant to question another person’s mental fortitude, and you should even more hesitant to raise such concerns on a public forum. You should only take such a step if you have very good reason to think it’s necessary and beneficial. I think fortitude is similar to a lot of other positive personal qualities in that regard. E.g., you should have an extremely high bar for publicly questioning another person’s sanity, intelligence, competence, etc.
  • I think the question of why SBF is talking like a movie villain psychopath is a valid one. If he’s a fanatical utilitarian who just lost (what he thought of as) a positive EV gamble, then probably the next highest utility action for him to take is to try and deflect blame away from EA and onto himself. I think this is unlikely, given the new CEO’s description of FTX insane management practices, but it’s hardly a nonsensical position for someone already skeptical of EA. I think you should not dismiss it as nonsense so offhandedly, and that you should especially not imply that failing to immediately reject such a position is cause to question someone’s ‘strength in the relevant way.’
Replies from: Benito
comment by Ben Pace (Benito) · 2022-11-17T21:38:41.622Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Quick responses:

  • In my head I'm making a much more specific claim than 'mental fortitude'. A person can be able to deal with arguments and ideas from different sources well and differently — you can handle criticism from your manager but not your child, or you can sensibly evaluate arguments given to you at a whiteboard in-person but not in a fancy physics paper. I didn't mean to say "bad at evaluating arguments in general", I just meant specifically from one source. That said, I will consider your argument that I should be careful to criticize someone's reasoning abilities... actually wait, I'm not sure I get it. Maybe there should be a high bar for doing this even on LW. I agree in most other places there is a high bar. I will aim to think more on it.
  • I'm not dismissing the position as nonsensical, and I'd be happy to engage with it if a LWer brought it up as their position. I said that not being able to see a perspective where it's nonsense that bullies made up to paint you in a bad light is this issue. I think a pretty plausible story is "Huh, seems like this revered EA person just seems to have pretty aggressive and self-serving opinions about finance and power and crypto, as many corrupt people in finance probably do, and the proposal that this is a front in order to somehow affect EAs reputation (as if his front will really have much affect on whether EA turned out to have been led by one of the big fraudsters in history) is pretty silly", and I think that's definitely one of my main perspectives. My point isn't that it's bad to consider other opinions, my point is that it's an issue to not be able to come up with something like this.

I currently have >50% on my read being right, but I may have mistakenly read into Ilverin's comment, I definitely have >25% on that.

Replies from: Ilverin
comment by Ilverin the Stupid and Offensive (Ilverin) · 2022-11-18T20:22:37.055Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I intended to bring it up as plausible, but not explicitly say that I thought it was p>0.5 (because it wasn't a firm belief and I didn't want others to do any bayesian update). I wanted to read arguments about its plausibility. (Some pretty convincing arguments are SBF's high level of luxury consumption and that he took away potentially all Alameda shares from the EA cofounder of Alameda, Tara Mac Aulay).

If it is plausible, even if it isn't p>0.5, then it's possible SBF wasn't selfish, in which case that's a reason for EA to focus more on inculcating philosophy in its members (whether the answer is "naive utilitarianism is wrong, use rule utilitarianism/virtue ethics/deontology" or "naive utilitarianism almost never advocates fraud", etcetera) (some old and new preventive measures like EA forum posts do exist, maybe that's enough or maybe not).

comment by Elizabeth (pktechgirl) · 2022-11-17T20:01:18.807Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

I don't see anything here to question Ilverin's mental fortitude. They're not demanding people appease sneerclub or going into a shame spiral. They raised a hypothesis. I think "we don't accept hypotheses from sneerclub and accept that we will miss the twice a day when that broken clock is correct" is a reasonable blanket policy for LW, but that doesn't mean everyone who raises a hypothesis from them has been irretrievably corrupted. 

Replies from: Benito
comment by Ben Pace (Benito) · 2022-11-17T20:38:18.850Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

Yes, I certainly don't think Ilverin is 'irretrievably corrupted'! I only meant to suggest that this particular source of ideas and arguments (bullies) was net negative for Ilverin, not that Ilverin is themselves a net-negative source of ideas and arguments.

comment by Nicholas / Heather Kross (NicholasKross) · 2022-11-17T02:32:27.572Z · LW(p) · GW(p)

For anyone wondering about Sam's mental state: don't forget the somewhat high chance [LW · GW] that he was intoxicated in some way during the interview.