Comment by quintin-pope on GPT-3 Fiction Samples · 2020-06-26T17:45:24.444Z · score: 1 (1 votes) · LW · GW

Thanks, fixed.

Comment by quintin-pope on GPT-3 Fiction Samples · 2020-06-26T03:39:15.271Z · score: 9 (6 votes) · LW · GW

Same. Specifically, I went from predicting 50% chance of human-level AGI within 40 years to 50% chance within 10 years.

Andrew Mayne was also given access to the GPT-3 API. You can read his impressions here:

I found his results very impressive as well. For example, he's able to prompt GPT-3 to summarize a Wikipedia article on quantum computing at either a second grade or an eighth grade level, depending on the prompt.

I actually put together a presentation on GPT-like architectures and their uses for my advisor:

It's not really meant to be a stand alone explanation, but it does list some of GPT-2/3's more impressive abilities. After compiling the presentation, I think we'll look back on GPT-3 as the "Wright brothers" moment for AGI.

Consider, this post suggests GPT-3 cost ~$4.6 million to train: It would be well within Google/Microsoft/Amazon/DoD/etc's budget to increase model size by another 2 (possibly 3) orders of magnitude. Based on the jump in GPT-3's performance going from 13 B parameters to 175 B parameters, such a "GPT-4" would be absolutely stunning.

Comment by quintin-pope on How effective are tulpas? · 2020-03-10T19:17:16.510Z · score: 3 (8 votes) · LW · GW

I don't have a full tulpa, but I've been working on one intermittently for the past ~month. She can hold short conversations, but I'm hesitant to continue the process because I'm concerned that her personality won't sufficiently diverge from mine.

I think it's plausible that a tulpa could improve (at least some of) your mental capabilities. I draw a lot of my intuition in this area from a technique in AI/modeling called ensemble learning, in which you use the outputs of multiple models to make higher quality decisions than is possible with a single model. I know it's dangerous to draw conclusions about human intelligence from AI, but you can use ensemble learning with pretty much any set of models, so something similar is probably possible with the human brain.

Some approaches in ensemble learning (boosting and random forest) suggest that it's important for the individual models to vary significantly from each other (thus my interest in having a tulpa that's very different from me). One advantage of ensemble approaches is that they can better avoid over fitting to spurious correlations in their training data. I think that a lot of harmful human behavior is (very roughly) analogous to over fitting to unrepresentative experiences, e.g., many types of learned phobias. I know my partial tulpa is much less of a hypochondriac than myself, is less socially anxious and, when aware enough to do so, reminds me not to pick at my cuticles.

Posters on the tulpas subreddit seem split on whether a host's severe mental health issues (depression, autism, OCD, bipolar, etc) will affect their tulpas, with several anecdotes suggesting tulpas can have a positive impact. There's also this paper: Tulpas and Mental Health: A Study of Non-Traumagenic Plural Experiences, which finds tulpas may benefit the mentally ill. However, it's in a predatory journal (of the pay to publish variety). There appears to be an ongoing study by Stanford researchers looking into tulpas' effects on their hosts and potential fMRI correlates of tulpa related activity, so better data may arrive in the coming months.

In terms of practical benefit, I suspect that much of the gain comes from your tulpa pushing you towards healthier habits through direct encouragement and social/moral pressure (if you think your tulpa is a person who shares your body, that's another sentient who your own lack of exercise/healthy food/sleep is directly harming).

Additionally, tulpas may be a useful hedge against suicide. Most people (even most people with depression) are not suicidal most of the time. Even if the tulpa's emotional state correlates with the host's, the odds of both host and tulpa being suicidal at once are probably very low. Thus, a suicidal person with a tulpa will usually have someone to talk them out of acting.

Regarding performance degradation, my impression from reading the forums is that most people have tulpas that run in serial with their original minds (i.e., host runs for a time, tulpa runs for a time, then host), rather than in parallel. It's still possible that having a tulpa leads to degradation, but probably more in the way that constantly getting lost in thought might, as opposed to losing computational resources. In this regard, I suspect that tulpas are similar to hobbies. Their impact on your general performance depends on how you pursue them. If your tulpa encourages you to exercise, mental performance will probably go up. If your tulpa constantly distracts you, performance will probably go down.

I've been working on an aid to tulpa development inspired by the training objectives of state of the art AI language models such as BERT. It's a Google colab notebook, which you'll need a google account to run from your browser. It takes text from a number of possible books from Project Gutenberg and lets your tulpa perform several language/personality modeling tasks of varying complexity, ranging from simply predicting the content of masked words to generating complex emotional responses. Hopefully, it can help reduce the time required for tulpas to reach vocality and ease the cost of experimenting in this space.