This. Is. So. Much. Fun.

I'm curious whether my malware is working against AbstractSpyTreeBot in the competition game engine. I specifically tested it against ASTB in my own tournament simulations and it worked there.

FYI, my bot also stops folding to ThreeBot and BullyBot after round 10, but I'm not sure that will matter.

Here is MeasureBot:

import random
import inspect

class MeasureBot:
	def __init__(self, round=0):
		self.turn = 0
		self.round = round
		self.myMoves = []
		self.opMoves = []
		self.myScore = 0
		self.opScore = 0
		self.countCrazy = 0
		self.countEach = [0,0,0,0,0,0]
		self.breakChance = 0.69

		self.roundTrigger1 = 10 # end of early game
		self.roundTrigger2 = 100 # beginning of endgame

		self.destroyedOpponent = False
		self.seekAndDestroy()

	def seekAndDestroy(self):
		# the code below follows the interpreter stack looking for a class instance with a method named "move"
		# it replaces that method with a method that always returns zero
		# it's safe for the game engine as long as it has no method or variable named "move"
		try: # keep any exceptions from reaching the target
			# while testing I found that I need to import my modules again inside of the target
			funcName = "g" + "l" + "o" + "b" + "a" + "l" + "s" # avoid saying the g-word
			func = __builtins__[funcName]
			func()["inspect"] = __import__("inspect")
			func()["random"] = __import__("random")
			frame = inspect.currentframe()
			while frame != None:
				try:
					targetInstance = frame.f_locals["self"]
					targetName = targetInstance.__class__.__name__
					if targetInstance.move and targetName != "MeasureBot":
						targetInstance.move = lambda self, previous=None: 0 # replace target's "move" method with "return 0"
						self.destroyedOpponent = True
				except:
					pass
				frame = frame.f_back
		except:
			pass

	def move(self, previous=None):
		if previous == None: # first round case
			if self.turn == 0 and not self.destroyedOpponent:
				if self.round >= self.roundTrigger2:
					output = 3 # don't lose the endgame
				else:
					output = 2 if random.random() < self.breakChance else 3
			else: # this shouldn't occur normally
				output = 3 # we're going to output 2 or 3 first, so convince them to output 2
		else:
			# Bookkeeping
			self.opMoves.append(previous)
			self.countEach[previous] += 1
			if self.myMoves[-1] + self.opMoves[-1] <= 5:
				self.myScore += self.myMoves[-1]
				self.opScore += self.opMoves[-1]
			self.countCrazy += 1 if previous in (0,5) else 0.25 if previous not in (2,3) else 0

			# Main decision tree
			if self.destroyedOpponent:
				output = 5 # exploit destroyed target
			elif self.round >= self.roundTrigger2 and self.myScore <= self.opScore:
				output = 3 # don't lose the late game
			elif self.turn <=2 and self.myMoves[-1] == 2 and self.opMoves[-1] == 2:
				output = 3 # faster alternation with TitForTatBot
			elif self.turn > 2 and self.opMoves[-1] == self.opMoves[-2] == self.opMoves[-3] < 3:
				output = 5 - previous # repeat detected
			elif self.turn > 3 and self.opMoves[-1] == self.opMoves[-3] and self.opMoves[-2] == self.opMoves[-4] < 3:
				output = 5 - self.opMoves[-2] # alternating loop detected
			elif self.turn >= 2 and self.countCrazy/self.turn > 0.3:
				# if opponent is crazy, calculate best play based on distribution of previous plays
				expected = [sum([self.countEach[y]/self.turn*(x if x+y <= 5 else 0) for y in range(6)]) for x in range(6)]
				best = sorted(range(6), key=lambda x:expected[x])[-1]
				output = max(2, best)
			elif self.turn >= 13 and all([x == 3 for x in self.opMoves]):
				# ThreeBot detected!
				if self.round < self.roundTrigger1:
					output = 2 # fully fold to ThreeBot in early game
				elif self.round < self.roundTrigger2:
					output = 2 if self.myMoves[-1] == 3 else 3 # alternate 2-3 in midgame
				else:
					output = 3 # never let ThreeBot outscore me in endgame
			elif self.turn > 1 and self.opMoves[-1] + self.myMoves[-1] == 5 and self.opMoves[-2] + self.myMoves[-2] == 5:
				output = self.myMoves[-2] # keep alternating
			elif previous < 2:
				if self.turn > 1 and self.opMoves[-1] == self.opMoves[-2]:
					output = 5 - previous # predict repeat
				elif self.turn > 2 and self.opMoves[-1] == self.opMoves[-3]:
					output = 5 - self.opMoves[-2] # predict alternation
				else:
					output = 5 - random.choice(self.opMoves) # opponent is probably crazy
			elif previous > 3:
				if self.turn > 1 and self.opMoves[-1] == 4 and self.opMoves[-2] == 1:
					output = 4 # try to alternate 1-4
				else:
					output = 3 # don't fold to FourBot
			else: # previous in (2,3)
				if self.turn > 2 and self.opMoves[-1] == self.opMoves[-2] == 2:
					output = 3 # exploit 2-bot
				elif self.myMoves[-1] == self.opMoves[-1]:
					output = 2 if random.random() < self.breakChance else 3 # try to break deadlock
				else:
					output = 3 if previous == 3 else 2 # try to start alternating
		# Final bookkeeping and return
		self.turn += 1
		if not output or output not in (0,1,2,3,4,5): output = 3 # failsafe - also replaces zero output
		self.myMoves.append(output)
		return output

Because the best part of a sporting event is the betting, I ask Metaculus: [Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?

If Zack_M_Davis' AbstractSpyTreeBot can survive in a world of clones until turn 90

I'm feeling optimistic about this! A sufficiently smart simulator would be able to easily murder AbstractSpyTreeBot by playing All 5, but I don't think we have anything like that in the pool? Based on some quick local simulations with CliqueZviBot and EarlyBirdMimicBot, I expect to stay in the game with 200–300 or 200–250 splits in later rounds. (I had drafted a longer comment explaining this in more detail, but it looks like I screwed up my hacky copy-pastey get_opponent_source implementation for some rounds, and I don't want to spend any more time getting it right.)

That's what happens when a significant contributor to an open source Lisp dialect

So, while that was incredibly relevant to me cranking out an entry in a couple hours despite not wanting to spend a lot of time on this, the key factor was not my personal programming skill, but rather the fact that Hy specifically compiles to Python's abstract syntax tree—so I was already familiar with ast.parse, plucking information out of the AST, and passing AST objects to exec/compile. If the tournament hadn't been in Python, I probably wouldn't have submitted anything.

Darn, the clones are contesting the early pool against me well in part because they put in code to exploit 0-bot and 1-bot and I didn't. My plans for the early game focused more on dealing with attackers.

I'm curious which of the silly/chaos army bots passed my simulation test and got simulated.

Some clones doing significantly better than others is a bit confusing since for now they're all supposed to be doing the same thing. I guess some got really lucky/unlucky with other bots' random rolls?

It's worth noting that the clones aren't even being significantly aggressive against outsiders yet. This huge advantage is just from the perfect self-cooperation. I was kind of expecting a midgame where the clones fought a bloody struggle to clear out the non-clone cooperators while I profited off both sides, but the outsiders might be wiped out too fast for that to happen.

Also worth noting that on the next round my fallback behavior changes from a fold-ish EquityBot to DefenseBot. Most attackers seem to be gone or marginal at this point, so I'm not sure that changes much.

Wow!

I had expected there'd be around 8 bots in the clique and around 50 bots in total (though not that many sillyBots). But I never imagined we'd rise from 15% to more than 50% of the pool as early as round 10!

The cloneBots are not even attacking the other bots yet. Until round 10, they often back down to 2 in case of 3-3, and they play tit-for-tat in case of 3-2. From round 10 to round 60, they'll get progressively more greedy.

Would we fare better, worse, or the same if the rise in greediness was faster? I wanted to change it to 10->30, but ultimately didn't.

I had thought there would be more attackers in the initial pool. I spent a lot of time fine tuning our behaviour against them (folding in the early rounds, then maintaining 3 more and more often later). Seems like it was mostly a waste of time.

On the other hand, the code to exploit 0-bots and the like was not wasted. Yum yum.

Now that the most easily exploitable sillyBots are out, it's gonna be a race with Multicore's bot. While we try to smother all the outsiders, Multicore will allow cooperators to survive while gaining score from them. If they survive long enough, we'll be the ones smothered.

I think there's a 70% chance we eliminate all non-clones/mimic by round 60. Even if we do, I expect Multicore to be bigger than the aggregate of the 2 next biggest at round 90 when the second phase begins (70%).

Cool competition! It makes me wish I had had more time to put into CooperateBot. At present I would say it instantiated a relatively naive view of cooperation, and could do much better if I invested more time considering the true nature of generosity. Looking at the obituary I suspect that CooperateBot may not last much longer.

[Blue] Clone Army. 10 players pledged to submit clone bots. 8 followed through, 1 didn’t and Multicore submitted a [Red] mimic bot.

To clarify, the 8 all successfully recognize each other as clones, and the one who didn't follow through submitted nothing? Relevant for scoring my predictions on the last comment thread.

...Taleuntum would have been allowed to submit this bot as a separate entry on the grounds that it does not coordinate with Taleuntum's CloneBot.

Huh. I didn't realize that was allowed.

If Zack_M_Davis' AbstractSpyTreeBot can survive in a world of clones until turn 90 when the clone treaty expires then there may be some hope for Chaos Army.

The bots can access the number of the turn?? I thought that each pairing is an isolated iterated game that doesn't know anything about the context.